Mike Hazen’s impact on the Arizona Diamondbacks: An interim grade

Mike Hazen has his Arizona Diamondbacks in a surprising first place position in the NL West as his team hits the season’s halfway point. The D-Backs stand 48-33, leading the San Francisco Giants by 2.5 games with Los Angeles back in third.

Considering that Arizona finished in fourth place 14 games below .500 in 2022, it’s fair to ask whether Hazen is a turnaround specialist. Or as the Arizona general manager simply been the beneficiary of over-achievement?

Grading the Arizona Diamondbacks at the midway point of the schedule

What follows is a mid-term assessment of Hazen’s personnel decisions since the conclusion of the 2022 World Series with a particular focus on the extent to which those decisions have helped or hindered the Diamondbacks’ performance.

The standard of measurement in Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by Hazen impacting the 2023 team gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved (or worsened) the team’s status this season.

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1.       By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2.       By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3.       By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.

4.       By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5.       By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

Here’s how Hazen stacks up by those five yardsticks.

Acquired or traded

Hazen has been both bold and active in his dealings with other teams. That boldness began before Christmas when he bundled highly regarded catcher-outfielder Daulton Varsho to the Toronto Blue Jays. In exchange, Hazen got utility player Lourdes Gurriel and catching prospect Gabriel Moreno.

Moreno was the big prize. Seen as field-ready, he was handed the primary catching duties and has responded with a .256 average and +8 Defensive Runs Saved in his first season. For that, Moreno stands at +0.6 WAA. That’s not a huge number, but it’s legit big league quality.

The same is true of Gurriel, a veteran who has mostly spent time in the outfield. Gurriel’s batting .271, and he has also compiled a +0.5 WAA. Those aren’t earth-shattering totals, but they’re productive.

Short-term, the deal has fundamentally been a wash because Varsho has produced a +1.0 WAA for the Jays. But of course both Gurriel and Varsho are well into their big league careers while Moreno is viewed as a controllable star in the making, so it’s likely to be a long-time winner for Hazen.

None of Hazen’s other seven trade acquisitions have amounted to much, and one — reliever Peter Solomon — was a serious liability in his cameo appearances. Beyond that, because three of the four players Hazen lost to other teams have generated good results, his math as a trader eventually runs slightly into the negative.

Free agency

Hazen’s most important move on the open market was an internal one; he reached agreement with Ketel Marte on an $86 million extension through 2028. Marte may be the closest thing the Diamondbacks have to a recognizable star. In his age 29 season, he’s batting .294 with 15 home runs and 44 RBI, all of that good for a +2.5 WAA.

Three veterans came in as supplementary elements. Evan Longoria (+0.4 WAA) is lending experience while getting a surprising amount of time at third base, and Andrew Chafin (+0.4) is getting a chance to close at age 33.

The news has not been as good for starter Zach Davies (-1.1), who is 1-4 with a 6.54ERA in nine appearances. That comes off a 2022 year in which Davies was 2-5 with a 4.09 ERA in 27 starts for the Diamondbacks.

Statistically Hazen’s re-signing of Davies, even if just for one more season, represents his worst move of the year.

The players Hazen either lost to free agency or released were inconsequential. Two caught on with other teams, Stone Garrett with Washington. and Jordan Luplow with Atlanta. Both of their values to their new teams to date have been trivial, and since they happen to even out the impact of Hazen’s open market personnel losses is 0.0.

Farm system

Even before his debut at the end of last August, Corbin Carroll was being touted as the likely National League Rookie of the Year. An outfielder with limited experience in 2022, Carroll is batting .292 with 17 home runs and 24 stolen bases in his first full season. That adds up to a +2.9 WAA.

He finds himself the apparent leader in what is shaping up as a good race for NL Rookie of the Year. The Reds’ recent callup of shortstop Elly De La Cruz could give Carroll some second half competition, as could Reds infielder Spencer Steer and Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker.

Carroll is the best known of eight first-year players on the Arizona roster, three of whom aside from Carroll are or were playing substantive roles. All three are or have been starting pitchers.

Tommy Henry (+0.1) is 4-1 with a 4.31 ERA in 11 starts. A left-hander, he’s operating as the team’s fifth starter.

Brandon Pfaadt (-0.9) got a callup from Triple-A in May. Three weeks later, having gone 0-2 with an 8.37 ERA in five starts, he was sent down again.

Ryne Nelson (+0.1) is the fourth starter. He’s 4-4 with a 4.97 ERA in 16 starts.