Ross Atkins, Mark Shapiro and the Toronto Blue Jays front office: A mid-term grade

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One big offseason move is likely to define the 2023 season for Toronto Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins and team president Mark Shapiro.

With a team already viewed as being in postseason contention in the difficult AL East, Atkins and Shapiro kept things pretty much on the down low in Toronto. As their Jays hit the season’s halfway point Wednesday night with 44-37 record, they have made a conservative 19 personnel moves impacting the major league talent base.

Only one of those — the December trade of catching prospect Gabe Moreno to Arizona for Daulton Varsho — garnered much attention. For the most part, Atkins and Shapiro have approached 2023 as a pat hand.

Grading the Toronto Blue Jays at the midway point of the 2023 season

What follows is a mid-term assessment of the Jays’ personnel decisions since the conclusion of the 2022 World Series with a particular focus on the extent to which those decisions have helped or hindered the Blue Jays’ performance.

The standard of measurement in Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by the front office impacting the 2023 team gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved (or worsened) the team’s status this season.

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1. By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2. By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3. By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.

4. By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5. By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

Here’s how Atkins and Shapiro stack up by those five yardsticks.

Daulton Varsho. Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports /

Acquired or traded

From the Jays’ standpoint, the swap of Moreno (and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) for Varsho can be counted a marginal draw. Granted, Moreno looks like he’s developing into a front line catcher, and granted also that front-line catchers are rare commodities.

But statistically Moreno delivered +0.8 WAA to Arizona through the season’s first half, while Gurriel has added +0.5. Balance that against Varsho’s +1.1 contribution to Toronto and the value of the trade really comes down to who’s most likely to influence the Jays’ ability to compete right away.

Arguably, anyway, that’s Varsho.

There was actually a second transaction of significance. In November, Atkins and Shapiro shipped outfielder Teoscar Hernandez packing for Seattle, in return getting pitcher Erik Swanson and a minor leaguer. So far, this one’s a winner (although not a decisive one) for Toronto.

Hernandez has been mediocre in Seattle, producing a .250 average and league-leading 107 strikeouts good for a flat 0.0 WAA. In Toronto, Swanson has been a contributor. In 37 relief appearances, he’s 2-2 with a 2.89 ERA and one save, that working out to +0.5 WAA.

Varsho and Swanson were the two most prominent of only four players Atkins and Shapiro obtained in transactions with other teams, the net gain to the Jays being just short of one full game of WAA. Those four cost Toronto six players, the most distinguished of whom aside from Hernandez, Gurriel and Moreno was reliever Julien Merrywether. He went to Chicago’s North Side as a waiver claim.

Kevin Kiermaier. Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /

Free agency

Atkins made several moderately aggressive moves at the free agent table, one of which has paid off big-time.

When the Jays signed Kevin Kiermaier for one year at $9 million in December, it looked like a case of picking up a light-hitting veteran center fielder with a reputation as a glove man. Kiermaier has been that and more.

For starters, halfway home he’s batting .276, which if he stays there would equal his career high. His .444 slugging average puts Kiermaier on course for his best season at the plate since 2017.

As a center fielder, he has been as advertised, already piling up 14 defensive runs saved. That would also be a personal-best since 2017. Overall, Kiermaier’s contribution works out to +2.2 WAA.

Chris Bassitt was supposed to be the big Atkins free agent signee. Formerly with the Mets, Bassitt signed through 2025 for $44 million.

He has been less than expected in Toronto, making his allotted 16 starts with a 7-5 record and 4.32 ERA. That adds up to -0.9 WAA.

Atkins and Shapiro signed veteran Brandon Belt mostly as a DH. At age 35, Belt’s production is just okay, amounting to a .263 average, .795 OPS and -0.1 WAA.

None of the three players lost to free agency or released — those being Jackie Bradley Jr., Raimel Tapia and Ross Stripling — has done anything with their new teams that would prompt the Jays to miss them.

Ross Atkins. Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports /

Farm system and overall grade

Based on their 2023 pattern, Atkins and Shapiro must view farm system products with great suspicion. Only one first-year player has done any time on Toronto’s roster in 2023, and that one (outfielder Nathan Lukes) was optioned to Triple-A two weeks ago. Lukes was batting just .158 at the time.

Much was expected of the Jays in 2023 (they were a popular pre-season pick to win the AL East) so their fourth place standing in the division at the halfway point can’t be viewed as an upper. Still, the team’s 44-37 record has them solidly in Wild Card contention.

Here’s the first half report card on the Toronto front office. Note that grades for players departing the organization are based on the reverse of those players’ WAAs with their new teams.

Mode WAA Grade

Acquired +1.4 B

Traded +2.7 B

Signed +1.4 B

FA Lost -2.1 D

Rookies -0.2 C

Overall +2.0 B

Although the cumulative number of Toronto’s personnel moves (just 19 of them) suggests that Atkins and Shapiro played this hand conservatively, they have so far also played it pretty well. Those moves have aided Toronto’s divisional fight to the tune of two games overall.

How does that square with the fact that the Jays reside in fourth place in their division and on the fringes of postseason qualification? Perhaps the perception of them as a championship contender were enthusiastic. Perhaps the returning nucleus‚— particularly Pedro Guerrero Jr. and Alex Manoah‚— hasn’t carried its share of the load.

Staying in the division and grading the Red Sox. dark. Next

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