Grading Matt Arnold and the Milwaukee Brewers front office at the midway point of the season

Acquired or traded

Since the end of the 2022 season, Arnold has been one of the most active general managers in negotiating deals to fruition. His trades, waiver pickups and purchases have introduced 13 fresh faces to Milwaukee.

Two of those were noteworthy enough to stir discussion at the time they were made. In December, Arnold got the Brewers involved in a three-team swap that also involved the Oakland A’s and Atlanta Braves. From Milwaukee’s standpoint, the principal piece was catcher William Contreras, who came from Atlanta.

Midway through the season, Contreras is batting .248 with eight home runs as Milwaukee’s regular catcher. Contreras has also turned his negative defensive profile around, running up a +5 Defensive Runs Saved total.

The Brewers also got reliever Joel Payamps in the deal at a cost of outfielder Estuary Ruiz, who went to Oakland. Payamps has been a useful bullpen piece, with a 2.17 ERA in 37 innings for a +0.6 WAA.

The other deal brought Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro in from Seattle at a cost of Kolten Wong. This one has been markedly less productive for both parties. Winker hasn’t juiced Milwaukee’s offense as much as a tic; he’s hitting .206 with one measly home run. Toro hasn’t made the active roster while Wong is having a miserable time in Seattle … but that’s Jerry DiPoto’s problem.

The striking part is that for all of his trade activity, Arnold hasn’t moved the needle. The total WAA of all 13 new arrivals in Milwaukee is -0.3 WAA.

Free agency

Arnold has approached his direct dealings with players with as much fervor as his team-to-team talks. Since last November, the Brewers have signed 11 MLB-caliber free agents. The problem is they have returned a total impact of -0.9 WAA.

There have been hits. Arnold gave former Cub and former Brewer Wade Miley $13.5 million to come back to Milwaukee through 2024. Miley has responded with a solid season: he’s 5-2 with a 3.02 ERA in 11 starts, and has pitched as well as any member of the Brewers rotation. From a  standpoint of WAA, Miley has been worth +0.9 to Arnold.

But not everybody is Wade Miley. Raimel Tapia, Luke Voit, Brian Anderson and Jon Singleton were all signed to fill starter (in the case of Anderson) or backup roles, and all have come up short. Anderson is holding down third base because there’s nobody else to do so despite a .221 average and .691 OPS, which translates to -0.4 WAA. Combine all four of those guys’ WAA and the deficit runs to -2.1 with Voit already having been released.

Five 2022 Brewers were shown the door to make way for those arrivals, the most noteworthy of which was Andrew McCutchen. He returned to Pittsburgh for an encore, and has generated +0.6 WAA there.  Pablo Reyes and Taylor Rogers have also been pluses for the Red Sox and Giants, respectively.

Farm system

Joey Wiemer is clearly the pick of the rookie crowd. Coming up from Double-A Biloxi at season’s start, Wiemer has become a fan favorite for his power. He’s hit 11 home runs (that’s one off the team lead) and driven in 30 runs.

The question is whether the Brewers will have to live with Wiemer’s less attractive bat-to-ball skills. He’s hitting .210 and he’s already fanned 80 times, or once every 3.5 plate appearances. As a result, despite that power, Wiemer’s WAA impact measures only +0.4.

But at least Wiemer has been a modest asset. Arnold has used five other system products through the course of the first half, only one of whom (Bryce Turang) is presently with the team. A middle infielder splitting time at second base with Owen Miller, Turang is hitting .206, although his glove work has produced a positive Defensive Runs Saved. In WAA, he scores -0.6.

In his third season running the Brewers, Arnold has not yet produced a first-rate farm system product … unless you count Wiemer. The closest might have been pitcher Aaron Ashby, who came up in 2021 and made 19 starts last season. But he’s recovering from shoulder surgery and out for the full season.

Overall

The signing of Wade Miley is statistically the highlight of Arnold’s season. In a Brewers rotation hampered by the loss of Brandon Woodruff, he’s been a steady, productive veteran presence.

At the same time, the signing of Jesse Winker to serve as designated hitter has hurt Arnold’s cause as much as Miley’s presence has helped. At least the Brewers are only obligated to Winker for this year.

Here’s the first half report card on the Arnold front office. Note that grades for players departing the organization are based on the reverse of those players’ WAAs with their new teams.

Mode                    WAA                 Grade

Acquired              -0.9                       C

Traded                  -2.0                       B

Signed                  -0.9                       C

FA Lost                 +0.5                      C

Rookies                 -0.2                      C

Overall                  -0.5                      C

The Brewers general manager made a healthy 39 moves impacting the Milwaukee roster since the end of the 2022 postseason. But almost all of them constituted small-scale nibbling around the frontiers of the talent rubric. Beyond that, only 15 of those moves created positive value as opposed to 21 negatives and three neutrals.

And it’s not like Arnold had a productive returning core to build around. That core — Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams — has been worth -2.7 WAA to the team’s cause.

But that’s the beauty of the NL Central, where mediocrity is good enough.

Can the Brewers hang on? Sure … unless some division competitor actually produces consistent good play. Somebody has to survive this division, and even playing sub-par ball, the Brewers of Matt Arnold are as good a candidate as anybody.