Grading Matt Arnold and the Milwaukee Brewers front office at the midway point of the season

The Milwaukee Brewers are in contention in the NL Central not because of anything general manager Matt Arnold has done, but because it’s virtually impossible not to be in contention in a division as lackluster as the NL Central.

At the season’s halfway point, Arnold’s Brewers are locked in a first place tie with the Cincinnati Reds, both at 43-38.  Since the conclusion of the 2022 post-season, the contribution of Arnold and the Brewers front office — in terms of personnel adjustments — has been negligible.

Grading the Milwaukee Brewers at the midway point of the 2023 season

What follows is a mid-term assessment of Arnold’s personnel decisions since the conclusion of the 2022 World Series with a particular focus on the extent to which those decisions have helped or hindered the Brewers’ performance.

The standard of measurement is Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by Arnold impacting the 2023 team gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved (or worsened) the team’s status this season.

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1.       By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2.       By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3.       By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.

4.       By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5.       By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

Here’s how Arnold stacks up by those five yardsticks.

Acquired or traded

Since the end of the 2022 season, Arnold has been one of the most active general managers in negotiating deals to fruition. His trades, waiver pickups and purchases have introduced 13 fresh faces to Milwaukee.

Two of those were noteworthy enough to stir discussion at the time they were made. In December, Arnold got the Brewers involved in a three-team swap that also involved the Oakland A’s and Atlanta Braves. From Milwaukee’s standpoint, the principal piece was catcher William Contreras, who came from Atlanta.

Midway through the season, Contreras is batting .248 with eight home runs as Milwaukee’s regular catcher. Contreras has also turned his negative defensive profile around, running up a +5 Defensive Runs Saved total.

The Brewers also got reliever Joel Payamps in the deal at a cost of outfielder Estuary Ruiz, who went to Oakland. Payamps has been a useful bullpen piece, with a 2.17 ERA in 37 innings for a +0.6 WAA.

The other deal brought Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro in from Seattle at a cost of Kolten Wong. This one has been markedly less productive for both parties. Winker hasn’t juiced Milwaukee’s offense as much as a tic; he’s hitting .206 with one measly home run. Toro hasn’t made the active roster while Wong is having a miserable time in Seattle … but that’s Jerry DiPoto’s problem.

The striking part is that for all of his trade activity, Arnold hasn’t moved the needle. The total WAA of all 13 new arrivals in Milwaukee is -0.3 WAA.

Free agency

Arnold has approached his direct dealings with players with as much fervor as his team-to-team talks. Since last November, the Brewers have signed 11 MLB-caliber free agents. The problem is they have returned a total impact of -0.9 WAA.

There have been hits. Arnold gave former Cub and former Brewer Wade Miley $13.5 million to come back to Milwaukee through 2024. Miley has responded with a solid season: he’s 5-2 with a 3.02 ERA in 11 starts, and has pitched as well as any member of the Brewers rotation. From a  standpoint of WAA, Miley has been worth +0.9 to Arnold.

But not everybody is Wade Miley. Raimel Tapia, Luke Voit, Brian Anderson and Jon Singleton were all signed to fill starter (in the case of Anderson) or backup roles, and all have come up short. Anderson is holding down third base because there’s nobody else to do so despite a .221 average and .691 OPS, which translates to -0.4 WAA. Combine all four of those guys’ WAA and the deficit runs to -2.1 with Voit already having been released.

Five 2022 Brewers were shown the door to make way for those arrivals, the most noteworthy of which was Andrew McCutchen. He returned to Pittsburgh for an encore, and has generated +0.6 WAA there.  Pablo Reyes and Taylor Rogers have also been pluses for the Red Sox and Giants, respectively.

Farm system

Joey Wiemer is clearly the pick of the rookie crowd. Coming up from Double-A Biloxi at season’s start, Wiemer has become a fan favorite for his power. He’s hit 11 home runs (that’s one off the team lead) and driven in 30 runs.

The question is whether the Brewers will have to live with Wiemer’s less attractive bat-to-ball skills. He’s hitting .210 and he’s already fanned 80 times, or once every 3.5 plate appearances. As a result, despite that power, Wiemer’s WAA impact measures only +0.4.

But at least Wiemer has been a modest asset. Arnold has used five other system products through the course of the first half, only one of whom (Bryce Turang) is presently with the team. A middle infielder splitting time at second base with Owen Miller, Turang is hitting .206, although his glove work has produced a positive Defensive Runs Saved. In WAA, he scores -0.6.

In his third season running the Brewers, Arnold has not yet produced a first-rate farm system product … unless you count Wiemer. The closest might have been pitcher Aaron Ashby, who came up in 2021 and made 19 starts last season. But he’s recovering from shoulder surgery and out for the full season.