Kim Ng and the Miami Marlins front office: A mid-term grade

Miami Marlins general manager Kim Ng pulled the coup of the offseason last December when she heisted AL batting champion Luis Arraez from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for pitcher Pablo Lopez. While Lopez has been just an average starter for Minnesota, Arraez is threatening to hit .400.

Beyond that, Arraez is a large part of the reason why the Marlins, at 47-34, are in a playoff position at the season’s halfway point.

How much of the credit for this revitalization does Ng deserve? Has the arrival of Arraez been the principal cog, or have smaller personnel changes also played a role?

Grading the Miami Marlins at the midway point of the 2023 season

What follows is a mid-term assessment of Ng’s personnel decisions since the conclusion of the 2022 World Series with a particular focus on the extent to which those decisions have helped or hindered the Marlins’ performance.

The standard of measurement in Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by the Marlins front office impacting the 2023 team gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved (or worsened) the team’s status this season.

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1.       By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2.       By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3.       By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.

4.       By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5.       By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

Here’s how Ng stacks up by those five yardsticks.

Acquired or traded

Ng hasn’t been afraid to deal. Since the end of the 2022 season, she’s brought eight major leaguers to the Marlins from other teams, among whom Arraez is obviously the most consequential. His .396 average translates to a +2.5 WAA for Miami, making Arraez one of the most consequential pickups by any team since the end of play in 2022.

The Marlins also got their closer, A.J. Puk, in a trade with Oakland that cost J.J. Bleday. Puk is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 12 saves, although that works out to just a +0.1 WAA.

The other six arrivals without exception have been role players. Matt Barnes and J.T. Chargois are both journeyman pitchers who have fleshed out the Miami bullpen. Daniel Castano and Sean Nolin have seen just enough action to merit being given a uniform. Outfielder Jonathan Davis and versatile Xavier Edwards have a handful of plate appearances to their credit.

Bleday is probably the most noteworthy departure, although his numbers in Oakland only translate to a 0.0 WAA. By the numbers, Ng gave up seven players in deals with other teams, not one of which has to date helped that receiving team.

The names are generally unfamiliar: Jeff Brigham, Richard Bleier, Cole Sulser.

The exception is Lopez, who was the bait Ng used to lure Arraez. With the Marlins in 2022, he was 10-10 in 32 starts encompassing 180 innings. He has not been nearly as effective in Minnesota, carrying a 3-5 record in 16 starts spanning 96 innings.

The 3.75 ERA he had in Miami is inflated by nearly three-quarters of a point.

Free agency

If Arraez was a steal, the big free agent decision Ng made has gone the other way. She gave Jean Segura $19.5 million to play infield for Miami through 2025. Segura, a 33-year-old formerly with the Phillies, has responded with perhaps the worst first half of his career, a .195 average and just two home runs in 62 games. That’s a leaden -2.4 WAA.

In a statistical sense, then, Segura has undermined everything Arraez has given the Marlins.

He’s also the worst of an undistinguished nine-player free agent crop. Yuli Gurriel was in that crop, so were Johnny Cueto, Garrett Hampson, Chi Chi Gonzalez and Devin Smeltzer. Through the first half of 2023, not one of them has produced a positive WAA for the Marlins.

Gurriel has seen the most playing time, basically operating as the team’s default first baseman. He’s hitting a decent .268, but his lack of extra base power — three homers, 16 RBI — reduces his WAA contribution to -0.4.

Ng has kept her free agent departures down to the absolute minimum. In fact, there’s been only one player who was released, then signed on with another MLB team.

The lone exception was third baseman Brian Anderson, who following his winter release found work in Milwaukee. With the Brewers, he has generated a -0.4 WAA.

Farm system

The book on the Marlins is that Ng has so few resources with which to deal on the open market that she and her team must excel at farm system production. Thus far, the 2023 class is giving promise of delivering on that need.

Ng has used five rookies, all pitchers by the way, to a collective team advantage of +3.2 WAA. Two have played significant roles.

Eury Perez debuted in May and has since then seized the No. 5 starter role. He’s 5-1 in nine starts with a 1.34 ERA, a glowing +1.8 WAA.

Andrew Nardi, with 37 appearances and a 2.67 ERA under his belt, has found work in Miami’s bullpen. He’s been worth +0.8 WAA.

The other three, Jeff Lindgren, George Soriano and Bryan Hoeing, have had the usual up and down rookie experience. Hoeing has a 2.31 ERA in 35 innings, while Lindgren got an early April look and Soriano was briefly recalled in June before being sent down again.

In her first three seasons running Miami’s front office, Ng has relied on first-year players. She’s used 27 of them, producing such useful parts as Bleday, Brigham and Nick Fortes, but no front-liners.

It will be interesting to see whether Perez and/or Nardi have that potential.