Grading the work of Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta Braves front office

Alex Anthopoulos of the Atlanta Braves may be the smartest team executive operating in the major leagues today.

Since taking over prior to the 2018 season, he’s consistently had the Braves in contention, culminating of course in the 2021 World Series victory. This year, his Braves hit the season’s half way point at 54-27, that being the majors’ second best record.

Does Anthopoulos deserve credit for that on-field performance? The data shows that he certainly does.

Grading the Atlanta Braves at the midway point of the 2023 season

What follows is a mid-term assessment of the Braves’ personnel decisions since the conclusion of the 2022 World Series with a particular focus on the extent to which those decisions have helped or hindered the team’s performance.

The standard of measurement is Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by Anthopoulos impacting the 2023 team gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved (or worsened) the team’s status this season.

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1.       By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2.       By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3.       By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.

4.       By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5.       By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

Here’s how Anthopoulos stacks up by those five yardsticks.

Acquired or traded

If you’re a major league team executive and the phone rings, Alex Anthopoulos is the guy you want to hang up on.

He obtained nine players from other teams by trade, purchase or waiver claim since the end of 2022. Five of those nine have produced positive value for the Braves against just two negatives (two were neutral).

The grand prize was the three-way mid-December deal that also involved the Oakland A’s and Milwaukee Brewers. Anthopoulos talked his way into Oakland catcher Sean Murphy through that deal at a cost of catcher Willson Contreras, a couple minor prospects and fringe major league talent.

Murphy has become the NL starting All-Star catcher, with a .294 average, 14 home runs and positive defensive stats. His 2.0 WAA is second among Braves position players only to Ronald Acuña Jr., who may be the MVP.

The other moves have been more subtle. Koby Allard came to the Braves in a winter deal with the Rangers for Jake Odorizzi that was supposed to be big for both sides. It’s basically been a non-entity to date, although that may be about to change. In Texas, Odorizzi has been sidelined with arm problems and is out for the year. Allard only returned from his own injury problems this past week, but he looked brilliant in his first start.

Anthopoulos generally only trades away nobodies, although the inclusion of Contreras (to Milwaukee) in the Murphy deal was an exception.

Free agency

Where Anthopoulos really stands out is in his free agent judgment. Since the end of the 2022 season he has signed, re-signed or extended eight players, and all but one of those eight has delivered positive numbers.

To that pursuit, he had one advantage: an intimate knowledge of the players he was after. That’s because his efforts were concentrated not on external talent, but rather on locking up the existing core of his highly rated roster. With one exception, he got the job done.

Third baseman Austin Riley was extended through 2033 at a cost of $237 million, and he’s produced +0.9 WAA in the first half of that first year. That’s built on a .270 average and 15 home runs.

Starter Spencer Strider inked through 2029 at a bargain $92 million, and has so far delivered a 9-2 record and 3.73 ERA in 16 starts.

Charlie Morton re-signed for two more years and is carrying a 3.81 ERA in 15 starts.

Outfielder Michael Harris, entering only his second full season, showed Anthopoulos enough to be tied up through 2032 for $102 million. Harris is hitting .266 and his WAA is at +0.6.

The big loss was Swanson, who took $177 million to play for the Cubs through 2029.

Overall

Anthopoulos has been so talented this year at two of a GM’s essential skills — dealing with his fellow GMs and navigating the free agent market — that his farm system shortcomings can readily be overlooked. While his report card is replete with ups and downs, the ups far outweigh the downs.

Here’s the first half report card on the Anthopoulos front office. Note that grades for players departing the organization are based on the reverse of those players’ WAAs with their new teams.

Mode                    WAA               Grade

Acquired              +1.9                     B

Traded                  -0.6                      C

Signed                  +4.1                     A

FA Lost                 +1.3                     D

Rookies                 -1.2                     D

Overall                  +4.1                    A

We may not find a better general manager at team-to-team acquisitions than Anthopoulos scores with his +1.9. Remember, the other GM probably knows what he’s doing, too. Yet Anthopoulos attracted nine fresh faces to the Braves roster from competitor GMs, and five of those nine produced positive value for the Braves against only two that went negative.

It was the same story when Anthopoulos went shopping for free agent talent. He signed, re-signed or extended eight of them, an uncanny seven of whom delivered positive results. The cost came in outgoing free agent talent — principally shortstop Dansby Swanson.

His rookie class, expected to be a strength, has been a disappointment. But that doesn’t overshadow the body of work Anthopoulos has presented since the end of the 2022 season.