Grading the Chicago Cubs front office at the season’s midway point

By this point, Chicago Cubs president Jed Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins must be about as confused as Cub fans everywhere.

Is this team capable of contending in the NL Central? Or is it a tease? And should the Cubs buy or sell at the trade deadline.

To this point, the team’s 2023 season has at times felt like a giant game of Chutes and Ladders. The team won 12 of its first 19 games and found itself solidly in contention. Then May, a 10-18 month, dashed those assumptions.

June has seen a stretch of nine wins in 10 games –pulling the Cubs within two games of .500 – followed immediately by losses in five of six and a fall back into fourth place.

What follows is a mid-term assessment of the Cub front offices’s personnel decisions since the conclusion of the 2022 World Series with a particular focus on the extent to which those decisions have helped or hindered the team’s performance.

The standard of measurement is Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by Hoyer and Hawkins impacting the 2023 team gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved – or worsened – the team’s status this season.

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1.       By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2.       By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3.       By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.

4.       By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5.       By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

Here’s how Hoyer and Hawkins stack up by those five yardsticks.

Acquired or traded

Since the end of the 2022 season, Hoyer and Hawkins have not pursued the trade market as a major priority. Only four players have come to the Cubs via trade, purchase or waiver claim, and only three have left through one of the same means.

Probably the most useful acquisition has been reliever Julian Merryweather, a January waiver claim from Toronto. Getting the biggest chance of his career, Merryweather, 31, has responded with a 2.86 ERA in 35 appearances, almost all of them of the one-inning variety. He’s been worth +0.5 WAA.

Miles Mastrobuoni is a second-year backup infielder who came to the Cubs from Tampa Bay for a minor leaguer. In sporadic appearances mostly at third base, Mastrobuoni has demonstrated why he’s never been looked at as a regular; he’s batting .145 and was sent down last week.

Of the three members of the 2022 Cubs who have been sent packing to other teams, Zack McKinstry has made the most impact. Traded to Detroit in March for a minor leaguer, he’s hitting .248 in 260 plate appearances and putting his best asset (his speed) to use. McKinstry has 11 steals in a dozen attempts. It still only adds up to a +0.1 WAA.

Free agency

Hoyer and Carter made a major play into free agency this past winter. They signed several name players, the most eye-catching of which was shortstop Dansby Swanson, late of Atlanta.

The Swanson signing has been a success. He’s only hitting .261, but he’s shown decent shortstop power and the expected solid defense as demonstrated by his remarkable +10 Defensive Runs Saved. In simple terms, Swanson has been worth one game to the Cubs with his glove alone. He’s carrying a +1.9 WAA.

The rest of the free agent picture is decidedly less sanguine. Cody Bellinger signed for one season, was out of the lineup with an injury, and has produced a +0.9 WAA. Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini were supposed to split time at first base, but both bombed. Hosmer was cut, Mancini’s time was reduced, and their combined -2.8 WAA has offset all the positive things Swanson and Bellinger have done.

Then there’s Jameson Taillon, who signed through 2026 after spending the past two seasons in the Bronx. Taillon has been a full-out disaster: he’s 2-6 with a 6.90 ERA in 13 starts and a -1.5 WAA. He must improve if the Cubs are to go anywhere.

Throw in eight or 10 smaller signings and the sum total of the free agent work of Carter and Hawkins to date is -1.8 games.

If the Cubs fall out of contention, those signings may well be the reason why.

Overall

The Cubs will spend the next three weeks trying to figure out whether they are trade deadline buyers or sellers. It’s an interesting dilemma. At five games out of the division lead, they’re close enough to contend in those stretches when they’re playing well. But those stretches have come and gone, often on very short notice.

Here’s the first half report card on the Cubs front office. Note that grades for players departing the organization are based on the reverse of those players’ WAAs with their new teams.

Mode                    WAA               Grade

Acquired              +0.1                      C

Traded                  +0.2                      C

Signed                  -1.8                       D

FA Lost                 -0.8                       C

Rookies                 -0.2                       C

Overall                  -1.3                       D

Since the end of the 2022 season, Hoyer and Hawkins have made 31 personnel moves affecting major league talent. Only 12 of those moves have benefitted the Cubs; 16 have worked against them and three have been neutral.

As solid as the Swanson pickup was, and as borderline solid as the Bellinger signing has been, the work of Hosmer, Mancini and Taillon has more than undermined it. To date, the Cubs’ entire season can be summarized in the free agent work of Hoyer and Carter: two steps forward, three steps back.

If they decide to bail and sell, Bellinger and Marcus Stroman are both attractive assets. But it would be hard for Cubs fans to pull the plug on a race against competition as non-intimidating as the Brewers, Reds, Pirates and Cardinals are providing.