Grading Mike Elias and the Baltimore Orioles front office at the season’s midway point
Acquired or traded
Since the conclusion of the 2022 season, Elias trades, purchases or waiver claims have brought to the Orioles five players who have seen some major league duty. From a playing time standpoint, the most impactful of those five moves was the January deal with Oakland that landed starter Cole Irvin.
He came with a minor leaguer for another minor leaguer, and was immediately inserted into Baltimore’s rotation. It was a rough landing. Irvin gave up six runs in four innings to New York in his debut, and by mid-April was laboring with a 10.66 ERA. Optioned out, he was recalled a month later for one start, optioned out a second time, and recalled a second time June 10.
To this point, Irvin’s line shows a 1-3 record in six starts, and he’s carved the ERA down to 7.18. That still equates to a very problematic -0.8 WAA.
Danny Coulombe is the other name acquisition. A reliever, he was purchased from the Twins toward the end of spring training, and has made 35 appearances with a 2.20 ERA. A veteran in his ninth season, Coulombe’s WAA is at +0.6. If he can keep it there, it would be a career-best.
In terms of actual major league talent, the cost was not much. Since the end of the 2022 season, Elias has sent only one major leaguer to another team. That was Tyler Nevin, an infielder sold to the Tigers on January 1. Nevin has seen only occasional duty with the Tigers, probably because he’s batting .136.
Free agency
Seven players have come to Baltimore either through free agency, extension or re-signing. Probably the most important is starter Kyle Gibson, who signed for $10 million for one year after being released by the Phillies.
With the Orioles, Gibson has made 17 starts to the tune of a 4.66 ERA and an 8-5 record. While his use has been extensive, the results have been so up-and-down that Gibson’s value to the team at the halfway point works out to a quite neutral -0.1.
Aaron Hicks, who signed at the end of May a few days after being released by the Yankees, might turn out to be a bargain basement pickup. The Yanks are committed to Hicks to the tune of about $42 million through 2026, so any positive contribution he makes to any team other than New York will come at minimum salary.
And so far Hicks’ contribution to the Orioles has measured positively, +0.2 to be precise. It has consisted of a .260 average and four homers in 92 plate appearances, mostly in the outfield. There are few things that would please an Oriole fan more than to have the Yankees pick up the tab for one of their players’ success.
At the end of 2022, Elias had to decide whether to try to hold on to pitcher Jordan Lyles or let him walk. Elias let Lyles walk (to Kansas City as it turned out) and that judgment has been vindicated. In K.C., Lyles is 1-11 with a 6.68 ERA in 11 starts. He dodged a bullet there.
Farm system
Gunnar Henderson is a rookie this year by the grace of MLB’s formula, and that works to the advantage of Elias’s rating.
Henderson got 132 plate appearances in 2022; MLB rookie eligibility rules set a cap of 130 at-bats. But since Henderson walked in 16 of those 2022 appearances, he retains his rookie eligibility by the margin of 14 official at-bats.
There are those in Baltimore, and they are numerous, who think that margin will enable Henderson to come away with the Rookie of the Year Award. His .241 average doesn’t make a compelling case, but he’s added enough power to produce a +1.0 WAA. That at least makes him easily the most valuable rookie in Baltimore.
Henderson is one of seven rookies Elias has called on to varying degrees in the season’s first half. None of the others has produced a positive WAA for the home team.
Aside from Henderson, pitcher Grayson Rodriguez, a 2018 first-round pick who debuted April 5, is the most noticed. Over the course of the next six weeks, Rodriguez made 10 rotation starts, never surviving into the sixth inning and getting slammed for 38 run in 45 innings, all but one of them earned.
By late May, Rodriguez was back in Triple-A trying to work out the bugs that had led to his 7.35 ERA and -1.3 WAA.
The rest of the 2023 rookie class is a roster of wannabes. There are five (pitchers Logan Gillespie and D.L. Hall and position players Jordan Westburg, Kyle Stowers and Joey Ortiz) and all but Westburg have been sent back down.
Called up just last week, Westburg has debuted with five hits in his first 16 at-bats, a .316 average.
Overall
With Henderson being the obvious exception, the lack of performance from the system products (and particularly Rodriguez) is the biggest anchor holding back Elias’ 2023 midseason rating.
Here’s the first-half report card on the Orioles front office. Note that grades for players departing the organization are based on the reverse of those players’ WAAs with their new teams.
Mode WAA Grade
Acquired -0.9 C
Traded -0.8 C
Signed -0.8 C
FA Lost -3.6 A
Rookies -1.1 D
Overall +1.6 B
Through 81 games, Elias had made 24 personnel moves impacting major league players, of which only nine worked to the advantage of the Baltimore Orioles. Of the remaining 15, 13 have turned out negative and two neutral.
The question is whether Henderson is capable of lifting the team. Of the 19 players Elias has brought in to the organization, he and Coulombe (+0.6) have been the only two significant contributors.
How, then, have the Orioles improved? The answer largely lies in the improving holdover cast. That cast includes Yennier Cano (+1.4 WAA), Wells (+1.3), Austin Hays (+1.1), Felix Bautista (+1.0), Bradish (+0.9), and Rutschman (+0.9).
As a group, the returning Orioles core added 4.5 games of value to Baltimore this season. Since almost all of that talent was brought in by Elias, he can take some of the credit, even if it doesn’t show up in his rating this season.
Next. Staying in the division and grading the Yankees. dark