Grading Mike Elias and the Baltimore Orioles front office at the season’s midway point

With general manager Mike Elias running the show, the Baltimore Orioles have been one of baseball’s moving teams in 2023. The Orioles hit their season’s halfway point Saturday with a 48-33 record and a solid grip on the franchise’s first postseason berth since 2016.

That’s a big turnaround from the same point one year ago when the team was 37-44.

Elias, the team’s GM since before the start of the 2019 season, deserves a lot of credit for the turnaround. With only two exceptions, every member of the current Baltimore roster was obtained, signed or brought to the majors by Elias. That very notably includes most of the team’s stars: Austin Hays, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle and Tyler Wells.

But it also raises a more immediate shorter-term question: What, if anything, has Elias done since the end of the 2022 season to effect this turnaround? Or is Baltimore’s improvement more a result of the ongoing development of its core.

Grading the Baltimore Orioles at the midway point of the 2023 season

What follows is a mid-term assessment of Elias’s personnel decisions since the conclusion of the 2022 World Series with a particular focus on the extent to which those decisions have helped or hindered the team’s performance.

The standard of measurement is Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by Elias impacting the 2023 team gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved – or worsened – the team’s status this season.

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1.       By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2.       By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3.       By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.

4.       By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5.       By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

Here’s how Elias stacks up by those five yardsticks.

Acquired or traded

Since the conclusion of the 2022 season, Elias trades, purchases or waiver claims have brought to the Orioles five players who have seen some major league duty. From a playing time standpoint, the most impactful of those five moves was the January deal with Oakland that landed starter Cole Irvin.

He came with a minor leaguer for another minor leaguer, and was immediately inserted into Baltimore’s rotation. It was a rough landing. Irvin gave up six runs in four innings to New York in his debut, and by mid-April was laboring with a 10.66 ERA. Optioned out, he was recalled a month later for one start, optioned out a second time, and recalled a second time June 10.

To this point, Irvin’s line shows a 1-3 record in six starts, and he’s carved the ERA down to 7.18. That still equates to a very problematic -0.8 WAA.

Danny Coulombe is the other name acquisition. A reliever, he was purchased from the Twins toward the end of spring training, and has made 35 appearances with a 2.20 ERA. A veteran in his ninth season, Coulombe’s WAA is at +0.6. If he can keep it there, it would be a career-best.

In terms of actual major league talent, the cost was not much. Since the end of the 2022 season, Elias has sent only one major leaguer to another team. That was Tyler Nevin, an infielder sold to the Tigers on January 1. Nevin  has seen only occasional duty with the Tigers, probably because he’s batting .136.

Free agency

Seven players have come to Baltimore either through free agency, extension or re-signing. Probably the most  important is starter Kyle Gibson, who signed for $10 million for one year after being released by the Phillies.

With the Orioles, Gibson has made 17 starts to the tune of a 4.66 ERA and an 8-5 record. While his use has been extensive, the results have been so up-and-down that Gibson’s value to the team at the halfway point works out to a quite neutral -0.1.

Aaron Hicks, who signed at the end of May a few days after being released by the Yankees, might turn out to be a bargain basement pickup. The Yanks are committed to Hicks to the tune of about $42 million through 2026, so any positive contribution he makes to any team other than New York will come at minimum salary.

And so far Hicks’ contribution to the Orioles has measured positively, +0.2 to be precise. It has consisted of a .260 average and four homers in 92 plate appearances, mostly in the outfield. There are few things that would please an Oriole fan more than to have the Yankees pick up the tab for one of their players’ success.

At the end of 2022, Elias had to decide whether to try to hold on  to pitcher Jordan Lyles or let him walk. Elias let Lyles walk (to Kansas City as it turned out) and that judgment has been vindicated. In K.C., Lyles is 1-11 with a 6.68 ERA in 11 starts. He dodged a bullet there.

Overall

With Henderson being the obvious exception, the lack of performance from the system products (and particularly Rodriguez) is the biggest anchor holding back Elias’ 2023 midseason rating.

Here’s the first-half report card on the Orioles front office. Note that grades for players departing the organization are based on the reverse of those players’ WAAs with their new teams.

Mode                    WAA               Grade

Acquired              -0.9                       C

Traded                  -0.8                       C

Signed                  -0.8                       C

FA Lost                 -3.6                       A

Rookies                -1.1                       D

Overall                 +1.6                      B

Through 81 games, Elias had made 24 personnel moves impacting major league players, of which only nine worked to the advantage of the Baltimore Orioles. Of the remaining 15, 13 have turned out negative and two neutral.

The question is whether Henderson is capable of lifting the team. Of the 19 players Elias has brought in to the organization, he and Coulombe (+0.6) have been the only two significant contributors.

How, then, have the Orioles improved? The answer largely lies in the improving holdover cast. That cast includes Yennier Cano (+1.4 WAA), Wells (+1.3), Austin Hays (+1.1), Felix Bautista (+1.0), Bradish (+0.9), and Rutschman (+0.9).

As a group, the returning Orioles core added 4.5 games of value to Baltimore this season. Since almost all of that talent was brought in by Elias, he can take some of the credit, even if it doesn’t show up in his rating this season.