Mike Rizzo and the Washington Nationals front office: A mid-season grade

Acquired or traded

Like several team executives this past offseason, Rizzo was strikingly ambivalent about pursuing the trade market. Since the end of the 2022 season, he has obtained the services of just two major league players via a trade, purchase or waiver claim with another team.

More interestingly, not a single member of the 2022 Nats has left the organization via team-to-team negotiation and made the roster of another team this season. That may, of course, be more of a commentary on the desirability of the 2022 Nats’ personnel than on Rizzo’s willingness to deal.

One of the two pickups has gotten a fair share of public attention largely due to the hype surrounding his original rise through the Boston Red Sox system.

In December, Rizzo acquired shortstop Jeter Downs from the Red Sox via a waiver claim. When Downs arrived in Boston in 2022, it was to great fanfare … most of it probably because his name was Jeter.

It wasn’t his minor league record. Downs had hit .190 and .197 at Triple-A in 2021 and 2022, and he managed only a .154 average in 25 games with the Sox. That’s why they made him available at a deep discount.

In Washington’s system, Downs has again labored at Triple-A, where this season he’s batting .119. He got a one-game callup and went hitless in two at-bats.

The only other Nat who has seen major league action this year after coming to the organization in a deal was pitcher Thad Ward. A rookie, the Nats also got him in a December waiver claim from the Red Sox.

Unlike Downs, Ward made the big club out of spring training and has stuck, appearing in 22 games although with a 7.12 ERA.

Free agency

Rizzo seemed to prefer negotiating directly with players; he signed 11 of them from the available open market. Some GMs are better at assessing available talent than others, and 2023 has not been one of Rizzo’s better years. Those 11 free agent pickups have netted -2.7 games of WAA to Washington’s cause.

The best of Rizzo’s moves was his ability to see something in veteran infielder Jeimer Candelario, who had been let go by Detroit. Candelario was a .217 hitter last season for the Tigers, but he’s at .264 halfway through 2023 with 10 homers and an .814 OPS. That adds up to a +1.5 WAA.

Most of Rizzo’s gambles have fared worse. He signed veteran reliever Chad Kuhl and got 38 innings of an 8.45 ERA and an 0-4 record. That works out to a -1.6 WAA.

Dominic Smith, late of the Mets, signed and has produced a credible .265 average in 78 games. But the power hasn’t been there (his slugging average is a paltry .340) and that’s dragged his value down to -1.2 WAA.

Stone Garrett has won the left field job in Washington after being granted free agency by the Diamondbacks. Like Smith, Garrett (.278) is providing batting average, but he’s added a touch of power, and as a result has a +0.4 WAA.

The Nats only lost three players to free agency this winter, none of whom have made significant contributions to their new teams.

Farm system

Like developing teams everywhere, the Nats need to be able to count on an infusion of farm system talent to grow.

But that has been a recurring weakness of Rizzo’s tenure in Washington, where the most highly regarded system products have generally failed to live up to expectations. Consider Carter Kieboom, Victor Robles, or Eric Fedde.

And on the occasions when the Nats did develop a true star, fate intervened. Lucas Giolito and Juan Soto were both traded away, although, in the case of Soto, that trade only transpired after he had played a major role in Washington’s 2019 World Series win.

It’s a safe bet there are no Juan Sotos in Rizzo’s 2023 rookie class. There are only three members to that class, two of whom are presently active.

The Nats summoned pitcher Jake Irvin from Rochester in May and threw him right into the rotation. Through 10 starts, he’s 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA. Irvin has shown just enough ability to probably be able to remain with the actives through the season, which for a rookie would be an accomplishment in itself. His WAA, though, is for the present modestly negative, at -0.2.

The other rookie is system product Amos Willingham, summoned just last week. It’s been a quick rise for Willingham, who began the season in Double-A. After a neutral debut, Willingham got bombed Saturday by Philadelphia, allowing five hits and four earned runs in 1.1 innings … which was not the way he hoped the second half of the season would begin.

Overall

Rizzo’s numerous forays into free agency (usually for second-tier or dated talent) have failed to help the Nationals and they’ve also undermined his mid-term rating. The high notes (particularly Candelario) were pretty good. But there were too many flops on the level of Kuhl, Smith and Chris Dickerson.

Here’s the first-half report card on the Nationals front office. Note that grades for players departing the organization are based on the reverse of those players’ WAAs with their new teams.

Mode                    WAA               Grade

Acquired              -0.6                       C

Traded                    0.0                       C

Signed                  -2.7                       D

FA Lost                 -1.3                       B

Rookies                -0.2                       C

Overall                 -2.2                       D

Rizzo made only 19 personnel decisions involving 2023 MLB players, a relatively low number compared with his peers. But only six of those 23 have worked to Washington’s advantage; 10 were negative and three were neutral.

For Rizzo, the more indictable offense is that it’s difficult to imagine any of his additions playing a central role in the Nats’ future growth. Or do you think Stone Garrett or Michael Chavis is suddenly going to grow into something he has not so far demonstrated the ability to be?

The principal job for a Nationals general manager this season has been to obtain future talent. It’s not clear that Rizzo has accomplished that.