MLB Awards: AL and NL MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year rankings after All-Star Game

The Major League Baseball All-Star Game and festivities are the perfect time to highlight the league’s best players at the season’s halfway point. While nearly every All-Star is having a great season, only the best of the best are gearing up for award races in the second half of the season. At the All-Star break, here are my Most Valuable Player, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year picks if the awards ballot was due today.

How do the races for MLB awards look as the unofficial second half begins?

American League MVP

1. Shohei Ohtani
2023 stats: .302/.387/.663 (181 wRC+), 0.6 BsR, 3.32 ERA, 3.81 xERA, 4.02 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 3.54 SIERA, 6.0 fWAR

Shohei Ohtani is somehow off to an even more impressive start to 2023 than he was in his MVP campaign in 2021. Ohtani’s 181 wRC+ leads all qualified position players while his 4.3 fWAR ranks second — extremely impressive considering he doesn’t play in the field. In 2021, Ohtani had 5.0 fWAR offensively across 158 games. This season, Ohtani is on pace for 7.2 fWAR offensively if he appears in 150 games.

With Ohtani, his offense is only half of the story. Although he’s not pitching as well as he did last year when he finished fourth in Cy Young voting, Ohtani has an impressive 3.32 ERA in 100.1 innings pitched, good enough to make the All-Star team as a pitcher on top of being the AL’s starting designated hitter.

Without a doubt, Ohtani is the clear favorite to win his second MVP in three seasons. The only things potentially standing in his way are an injury or a trade to a National League team. Ohtani’s MVP case might already be solidified even if either of those two possibilities happens.

2. Wander Franco
2023 stats: 86 G, .278/.338/.459 (124 wRC+), 12 DRS, 11 OAA, 2.0 BsR, 3.8 fWAR

Somehow, when the All-Star teams were announced, Wander Franco wasn’t named an AL All-Star. Franco was later named as an injury replacement for Aaron Judge, but it’s ludicrous to think that the player with the second-most fWAR in the American League behind Ohtani wasn’t originally planning to head to Seattle.

While the players Franco often gets compared to are better offensively than him, Franco’s 124 wRC+ shows that he’s near elite (especially for a shortstop) offensively, which is impressive considering how well he’s played defensively at shortstop.

Franco’s 12 DRS and 11 OAA lead all shortstops, and he’s on pace to be the fifth shortstop to have a wRC+ over 120 and more than 10 OAA in a single season.

On top of his defensive and offensive prowess, Franco is elusive on the bases. With 28 stolen bases, Franco leads the AL in steals while his 2.0 BsR shows he’s effective as an overall base runner. There aren’t many players in baseball who can affect a game in as many ways as Franco.

3. Luis Robert
2023 stats: 89 G, .271/.330/.569 (143 wRC+), 7 DRS, 8 OAA, 0.6 BsR, 3.7 fWAR

One month into the season, Luis Robert was hitting .213 (79 wRC+). Since then, all he’s done is rake, getting his wRC+ up to 143, the fifth-best in the AL. As seen in the Home Run Derby, Robert has effortless power, helping to propel him to an already career-high in homers (26) and an elite .298 ISO.

Additionally, Robert is one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball, with his 7 DRS and 8 OAA ranking second and third, respectively, among all center fielders. While Robert has showcased MVP-like potential across his first three MLB seasons, injuries and 2020 held him back from playing a full season.

On pace to play a full season, Robert can find himself in the MVP conversation for the first (and definitely not last) time of his career if he finishes 2023 healthy.

Honorable mentions: Corey Seager, Jose Ramirez

National League MVP

1. Ronald Acuña Jr.
2023 stats: 89 G, .331/.408/.582 (164 wRC+), 4 DRS, -4 OAA, 5.4 BsR, 4.8 fWAR

Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 2023 is off to a video game-like start. Acuña is batting .331 (second in MLB) while on pace to potentially hit 40 homers and maybe, just maybe, steal 80 bases. What Acuña is doing shouldn’t humanly be possible.

If not for tearing his ACL in the middle of the 2021 season, Acuña could be well on his way to winning his second MVP. The only flaw in Acunã’s game has been his outfield play, but with the fifth-best arm in baseball by FanGraphs’ ARM metric, he makes up for his inability to effectively get to the ball.

As long as he stays healthy, Acuña should be a lock to win the NL MVP.

2. Sean Murphy
2023 stats: 67 G, .306/.400/.599 (166 wRC+), 6 DRS, 5.1 FRM, -3.8 BsR, 3.9 fWAR

Because of how great Acuña and the Atlanta Braves have been as a team, Sean Murphy might be the most overlooked player in the majors. While Acuña is having an unbelievable season, it’s actually Sean Murphy that leads the NL in wRC+ (minimum 250 PAs) with a 166 wRC+.

While Murphy has proved to be one of the best offensive catchers in MLB in his time in Oakland, he’s taken his game to a new level in Atlanta. Murphy (along with Will Smith) is on pace to be the first catcher in the Statcast Era to have at least a 140 wRC+ in a single season (minimum 400 PAs). If he keeps up his current pace, Murphy will dominate this leaderboard.

What has made Murphy elite throughout his career, though, is his defense (specifically framing) behind the plate. Murphy’s 5.1 FRM is tied for the second-most while his 5 CFR (Baseball Savant’s catching metric) is the fifth-most among qualified catchers.

When taking into consideration that Murphy is one of the best offensive and defensive players in the league as a catcher, it skyrockets him to a new level of valuable. Barring another trip to the Injured List, Murphy could put his 2023 into elite company.

3. Mookie Betts
2023 stats: 86 G, .276/.379/.586 (157 wRC+), ) DRS, 0 OAA, 2.6 BsR, 4.2 fWAR

At 30 years old, Mookie Betts is having the most powerful season of his career. With 26 home runs, Betts is on track for his first 40+ home run season, and his .309 ISO (third-highest in the NL) is the best of his career.

Among qualified players, Betts’ 157 wRC+ is the second-best in the NL and it’s individually the second-best of his career behind his MVP 2018 campaign.

Although Betts has regressed to league average defensively in the outfield, he’s spelled in at second base and shortstop, helping the Dodgers put out their best nine players on a given day.

While peak Betts’ elite defense would probably propel him into a tight race with Acuña for MVP, he’s on pace to finish top-five in MVP voting for the third time in his four-year Dodger career.

Honorable mentions: Corbin Carroll, Freddie Freeman

AL Cy Young

1. Framber Valdez
2023 stats: 111.0 IP, 2.51 ERA, 3.86 xERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.99 xFIP, 3.31 SIERA, 3.2 fWAR

In 2023, Framber Valdez has done what he does best: go deep into games, force groundballs, keep the ball in the ballpark, and maintain a quality strikeout:walk ratio. Valdez’s 55.3 GB% is tied for the best, 0.57 HR/9 is the second-best and 20.3 K-BB% is the eighth-best among qualified pitchers in the AL.

In 2022, Valdez set an MLB record by pitching 25 consecutive starts. With a 2.82 ERA in an AL-leading 201.1 innings pitched, Valdez finished fifth in Cy Young Voting, when his teammate Justin Verlander won the award.

With Verlander now a Met, Valdez has stepped in brilliantly as the Astros’ ace, with his 2.51 ERA leading all qualified starters in MLB. Valdez has plowed through opposing hitters in the first half of the season, with a strong second half, Valdez could be the second Astro to win the Cy Young in the last two seasons.

2. Kevin Gausman
2023 stats: 115.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 3.52 xERA, 2.45 FIP, 2.90 xFIP, 3.02 SIERA, 4.0 fWAR

After Robbie Ray won the Cy Young in 2021, the Blue Jays opted to let him walk in free agency to the Mariners on a five-year, $115 million contract. To counter, Toronto signed Gausman to a very similar five-year, $110 million contract.

So far, moving on from their former Cy Young has proved to be a great move for the Blue Jays, as Gausman significantly outpitched Ray in 2022 and has set himself up to contend for the 2023 Cy Young.

Gasuman’s 3.03 ERA stems from his elite combination of command and swing-and-miss stuff, as his 26.4 K-BB% leads the AL. Anchored by his elite strikeout and walk rates, Gausman leads the AL in xFIP and SIERA, but if he wants to win his first Cy Young he’ll have to keep up with Valdez in terms of innings pitched and get his ERA within Valdez’s vicinity.

3. Nathan Eovaldi
2023 stats: 117.2 IP, 2.83 ERA, 3.39 xERA, 3.18 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.81 SIERA, 2.9 fWAR

The Texas Rangers became the first team since the 1951 Dodgers to have six players from the same time all on the field during the All-Star game. Five players were around the diamond and one player was pitching.

That pitcher wasn’t Jacob deGrom, who you’d think would’ve been the pitcher had you known that stat before the season — it was Nathan Eovaldi.

Eovaldi has been a revelation for a Texas Rangers team off to one of the best starts in MLB, as he’s pitched an AL-best 117.2 innings to a 2.83 ERA (third-best in the AL). Throughout his career, Eovaldi has pitched to a “bulldog” mentality, going deep into games and doing whatever it takes to help his team win. If his second half of the season is anything like his first half, Eovaldi will propel himself into the Cy Young race.

Honorable mentions: Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole

NL Cy Young

1. Zac Gallen
2023 stats: 118.1 IP, 3.04 ERA, 3.62 xERA, 2.77 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, 3.53 SIERA, 3.7 fWAR

After being selected as an All-Star for the first time in his career, Zac Gallen was the NL’s starting pitcher and showed the baseball world why he’s the betting favorite to take home the NL Cy Young.

In his breakout 2022 season when he pitched to a 2.54 ERA across 184.0 innings, Gallen accumulated 4.3 fWAR. In 118.1 innings this year, Gallen already has 3.7 fWAR. As Corbin Carroll said when he was interviewed on Tuesday night, the Diamondbacks wouldn’t be where they are with Gallen. With a strong second half, Gallen could lock up his first career Cy Young and get Arizona to the postseason for the first time since 2017.

2. Spencer Strider
2023 stats: 104.2 IP, 3.44 ERA, 3.08 xERA, 2.84 FIP, 2.83 xFIP, 2.67 SIERA, 3.0 fWAR

If not for back-to-back disastrous starts against the Mets and Tigers in June in which he gave up 13 earned runs in eight innings pitched, there’s a strong possibility Strider would be ahead of Gallen in the Cy Young race.

For now, though, Strider’s 3.44 ERA is too high to justify him winning the award, but you could argue he’s been the most talented pitcher in baseball. Leading MLB starters in K% (38.9%), K-BB% (30.9%) and CSW% (34.5%), Strider has been electric this season. If Strider can reduce the number of barrels he gives up and keeps the ball in the ballpark, he’ll put himself in a great position to win his first Cy Young.

3. Logan Webb
2023 stats: 126.0 IP, 3.14 ERA, 3.57 xERA, 3.23 FIP, 2.91 xFIP, 3.12 SIERA, 2.8 fWAR

As he’s shown over the last couple of seasons, Logan Webb is a horse on the mound. Leading MLB with 126.0 IP, Webb has pitched to a superb 3.14 ERA.

Webb’s staple throughout his career has been generating ground balls, which hasn’t slowed down this year, as he leads MLB starters with a 60.3 GB%. Combining his elite ground ball rate with a 95th percentile BB%, it’s virtually impossible for opposing offenses to generate threats against Webb, which helps him cruise deep into games.

Webb is getting a bit unlucky on the home run ball this year, as his HR/9 and HR/FB% are way up from what they were from 2020-2022, but if he can keep the ball out of the outfield seats, Webb should have an even better second half than his already impressive first half.

Honorable mentions: Justin Steele, Clayton Kershaw

National League Rookie of the Year

1. Corbin Carroll
2023 stats: 86 G, .289/.366/.549 (144 wRC+), -1 DRS, 2 OAA, 3.8 fWAR

There are many ways to describe Corbin Carroll’s rookie season, but the one I thought of first was terrific. Like Henderson, Carroll had a successful cameo in the majors last season, prompting preseason Rookie of the Year hype.

While people around the game thought Carroll would be good, I’m not sure many people thought he’d be this good. Carroll’s 144 wRC+ is tied for sixth among qualified hitters in the NL, while his MLB-leading 8.4 BsR propels his offensive value to an elite level. Carroll has also been solid defensively this season, with his weak arm the only thing really holding him back from being elite in the field too.

Carroll shouldn’t only be a lock to win Rookie of the Year, he should be in MVP conversations.

2. Matt McLain
2023 stats: 50 G, .300/.366/.512 (132 wRC+), 3 DRS, 3 OAA, -0.5 BsR, 2.1 fWAR

While everyone around the world is loving a different rookie in Cincinnati who I’ll be diving into shortly, Matt McLain has quietly been just as good. After being drafted in the first round of the 2021 draft, McLain shot right through the minor leagues and was called up by the Reds in May.

Among NL rookies with at least 200 PAs, McLain’s 131 wRC+ only trails Carroll’s 144 wRC+. In addition to his outstanding offense, McLain has been superb defensively with his OAA ranking in the 85 percentile.

Although he’s not their most popular rookie, McLain has proved he’ll be one of the Reds’ most important players as they make a playoff push this season and the future seasons to come.

3. Elly De La Cruz
2023 stats: 30 G, .325/.363/.524 (131 wRC+), -3 DRS, 1 OAA, 1.3 BsR, 1.2 fWAR

Despite only playing in 30 MLB games, no player in baseball is being talked about as much as Elly De La Cruz — and there’s a good reason for that. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound unicorn hits the ball as hard as anyone, throws it as fast as anyone and is the self-proclaimed fastest man in the world … and his 100th percentile sprint speed backs him up in terms of the baseball world.

Day in and day out, De La Cruz is a ticking time bomb to do something absolutely insane, which is why baseball fans can get enough of the 21-year-old rookie. With all of that being said, it’s only been 30 games so I can’t jump the gun on him yet, but if De La Cruz continues to produce like he’s shown he’s capable of, he’ll be in contention for best player in baseball in the near future.

Honorable mentions: Patrick Bailey, Francisco Alvarez