How the St. Louis Cardinals trading Jordan Walker to the Seattle Mariners makes sense

Examining a potential St. Louis Cardinals-Seattle Mariners trade

Trade #1:

St. Louis Cardinals (Receive)-

1. Logan Gilbert (Age 26)- SEA (RHP) – Starting Pitcher
2. Emerson Hancock (Age 24) – SEA (Double A – RHP)- Starting Pitcher

Seattle Mariners (Receive)-

1. Jordan Walker (Age 21)- STL (RHB) – INF/OF
2. Nolan Gorman (Age 23) STL (LHB) – INF

Why this works:

Both sides of this deal have surplus in what they are giving up.

The Mariners, although it stings at the surface, have plenty behind Logan Gilbert in terms of young starting pitching. The St. Louis Cardinals prefer to have a for sure ace by choosing the more experienced of the bunch, especially since they need him to step in line as their front-line ace in 2024. He currently is their best pitcher this season in my opinion with a 3.47 FIP.

On the flip side for Walker, the St. Louis Cardinals, for how much they love him and his future potential, it begs the question of where does he fit in the field? If they are truly unwilling to give up Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt as Mozeliak said today, he will have to be a DH or continue in the outfield (where he has been miserable to watch). He just does not fit the roster construction with those two blocking possible infield positions, and especially with Willson Contreras seemingly placed in the DH role.

Nolan Gorman is an upgrade long term for the Seattle Mariners in his primary position of third base, and he can be spotted periodically at second, or as a DH. He is a solid left-handed bat that is at minimum league average. This season, he was a real spark plug early on, even though he regressed recently his potential is certainly high.

Lastly, Emerson Hancock is thrown in there to add more depth to the St. Louis Cardinals possible young arms coming up in 2024. Per FanGraphs, he is projected to have a future value of slightly above Major League average with a good fastball, change-up, and slider combination. He currently owns a 4.34 FIP in Double-A and a very high 10.03 strikeout per nine innings. The high strikeout rate is a pivot the St. Louis Cardinals seem to be moving towards.

Examining another potential St. Louis Cardinals-Seattle Mariners trade

Trade #2:

St. Louis Cardinals (Receive)-

1. George Kirby (Age 25)- SEA (RHP) – Starting Pitcher
2. Bryan Woo (Age 23)- SEA (RHP) – Starting Pitcher

Seattle Mariners (Receive)-

1. Jordan Walker (Age 21)- STL (RHB) – INF/OF
2. Ryan Helsley (Age 28) – STL (RHP) Relief Pitcher
3. Nolan Gorman (Age 23) STL (LHB) – INF
4. Paul DeJong (Age 29) STL (RHB) – INF (STL eats half of $12.5 million contract if club option is picked up in 2024)

I think this deal is a little less likely due to the Seattle Mariners having to part ways with two top young arms, but I tried to put together a package of young and controllable players from St. Louis that possibly fit their needs and interests.

For the Seattle Mariners, they need to make a decision. At some point, to get what they need moving forward, they have to be willing to wheel and deal their young arms. George Kirby has been a solid third starter in their rotation this season with a 3.48 FIP.  Bryan Woo, on the other hand, is their second-ranked pitching prospect and seeing his first action in the big leagues this season with his seven starts where he owns a 3.08 FIP in 34.2 innings.

What they get in return is a mix in this deal. I will spare you the same comments on Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman, but in order for the St. Louis Cardinals to get two young talented arms, they need to be willing to give back in another way to the Seattle Mariners.

Paul DeJong is a safe bet for the Mariners to bite on. He plays high-quality shortstop defensively, even though in my other article highlighting the St. Louis Cardinals defensives woes, he has regressed. He also has a club owned option for 2024 and 2025. To spice it up even more, I say the Cardinals offer half of his contract in 2024 if the Seattle Mariners are willing to take a flier on him and offer a spot the following season.

Ryan Helsley, if he can pass a physical, is a strong addition to the Seattle Mariners bullpen for the next three season as he is controlled through 2026. The Mariners look at this as a positive for their pitching staff as a whole. Lose a pair of front-line pieces in their rotation but gain in the back end of ballgames along with other pieces that make a more well-rounded ball club.

Jordan Walker is a fine young talent. I think John Mozeliak will be uptight to get rid of another highly touted outfielder like him as we all know how bad those other deals burned the organization in the past. However, if indeed the birds on the bat are pivoting their direction, these two deals could magnificently change the direction back to pitching and defense.