11. Max Scherzer, starting pitcher, New York Mets/Texas Rangers (following trade)
Scherzer is in the second year of a three-year, $130 million contract he signed with the Mets prior to 2022. That 2022 season went well; Scherzer made 23 starts and went 11-5 with a 2.29 ERA. But the Mets were drummed out of the 2022 post-season by the Padres in three quick games and Scherzer – who got hammered 7-1 in Game 1 of that series – was part of the reason why.
Scherzer’s 2023 numbers are okay for an average pitcher. He’s 8-4 with a 4.20 ERA in 18 starts, so both his record and his workload look good. Like Verlander, the problem is that Scherzer isn’t supposed to be an average pitcher; he’s supposed to be a superstar.
That’s how he’s being paid and that’s what he hasn’t been.
Scherzer’s 1.6 WAR is above the 1.032 positional average. But for the kind of coin Scherzer is drawing, his WAR ought to be two to three times that high. He’s pitching like a $16 million pitcher…more or less like teammate Kodai Senga, except Senga’s drawing 40 percent of Scherzer’s salary.
The math determines that Scherzer thus far in 2023 is being overpaid by $27.741 million.