MLB rumors: Which general manager jobs could be in jeopardy in 2023?

If you are the general manager of a losing team, mid-August can be the point in a season when you start to get nervous about the MLB rumors that may be flying around.

Could this season be your last? Will the team owner knock on your door bring news that you will be replaced?

That scenario plays out every season and given the rampant level of failed expectations in 2023, it is virtually guaranteed to happen at least two or three time between now and early October. Among the 30 MLB front offices, several who watched the teams they spent millions assembling fail so miserably could not be blamed for feeling uneasy about their own job security.

Performance in 2023 is not, of course, the only criteria determining whether a team president or general manager can feel secure. Less measurable factors (contract status, relationship with the owner, longer-term performance and the history of organizational stability, or lack of same) also come into play.

But change is the one certainty in the game. This past offseason alone, three front office decision-making positions turned over … in Detroit, San Francisco and Houston. Since 2019 (that’s just five winters ago), the average number of major front office changes has been 4.4 per season.

Not all of those, obviously, could be attributed to underperformance or management dissatisfaction. Retirements played some role, as did shifts in upper-level duties. A few teams promoted their existing general manager to a new position of team president and hired a GM replacement.

The most common driver of change, however, has been precisely what you would expect, a sense at the top level that for one reason or another a shakeup at the top was needed. In the past few seasons alone, that happened in Houston, in Detroit, in Queens (twice), in Miami, in Anaheim, in Texas, in Baltimore and we haven’t exhausted the list.

MLB rumors: Who’s safe this winter and who’s in trouble? Here’s a division-by-division assessment.

AL East

Baltimore Orioles: Since becoming general manager prior to the 2019 season, Mike Elias has taken one of the game’s worst organizations and built it into one of the best. The Orioles have both the best farm system and the American League’s best record. He’s in as secure a position as it is possible for a general manager to be.

Boston Red Sox: Chaim Bloom and Brian O’Halloran have been chief baseball officer and general manager since 2020. The 2023 Sox have been a disappointment, and they are likely to miss out on postseason play for the fourth time in five years.

Beyond that, team owner John Henry has been known to shake things up. Bloom and O’Halloran are the seventh upper management team hired by Henry since he took over in 2002, among whom only Theo Epstein lasted longer than four seasons. This is the fourth season for Bloom and O’Halloran. Precedent is not on their side.

New York Yankees: As such as some Yankee fans would like to be rid of Brian Cashman, he’s unlikely to be going anywhere. For starters, team owner Hal Steinbrenner is not the second coming of his father, George. This Steinbrenner generation is far more tolerant, witness the fact that, since taking over control of the team in 2008, Hal has never fired or hired a general manager. Beyond that, not long ago he extended Cashman’s working arrangement through 2026.

Given the general unhappiness with the team’s likely failure to make the postseason this year, anything’s possible. But Cashman is probably safe for the immediate future.

Tampa Bay Rays: Team president Erik Neander is under contract through 2026, and GM Peter Bendix is completing only his second season as Neander’s alter-ego. Given the Rays’ success using a resource-limited system, change in Tampa will only occur if some other team offers one or both of them more money to leave.

Toronto Blue Jays: Team President Mark Shapiro is under contract through 2025, and GM Ross Atkins is tied up through 2026. Combine that with the fact that the Jays are in postseason contention and the situation in Toronto appears to be stable.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox: The Southsiders are 748-892 since the management team of president Ken Williams and general manager Rick Hahn took over in 2013. The team has made just two playoff appearances, and is playing .397 ball this year with a cast that was supposed to walk away with the AL Central title.

Beyond that, both Williams and Hahn are working on open contracts. Combine that with the fact that Chicago’s farm system was recently ranked a lackluster 20th, and you have perhaps the most vulnerable leadership team in the game this winter.

Cleveland Guardians: Team president Chris Antonetti and general manager Michael Chernoff have been running operations for team owner Larry Dolan since 2016, when Cleveland made it to Game 7 of the World Series.

Although 2023 has been a disappointment, Antonetti and Chernoff can still point to at least five postseason trips (assuming they don’t make it this year) in eight tries. Change here would be a surprise.

Detroit Tigers: Scott Harris was hired away from San Francisco prior to this season, so he has a grace period. Beyond that, the Tigers have probably exceeded expectations, standing a plausible third in the AL Central. Unless there are underlying relationship problems (unlikely), there will be no change in Detroit.

Kansas City Royals: J.J. Picollo is in his second season as general manager for new owner John Sherman. GMs usually get more than two years to show what they can do, so Picollo is likely safe. But there is room for doubt. Sherman has no track record to indicate whether he will be patient or impatient with his management team. Beyond that, the Royals’ farm system ranks 29th.

Combine that with the team’s desultory 2023 showing and you get just enough doubt in the future of Picollo to make change, while still unlikely, within the realm of possibility.

Minnesota Twins: Team president Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine are both working under contracts that expire in 2024. They needed a big season and with the AL Central championship within reach they’re getting one good enough to probably win extensions.

AL West

Houston Astros: Team owner Jim Crane cut ties GM Jim Click last winter right after Click’s team had won the World Series, so anything’s possible. But given first-year general manager Dana Brown’s status as a newbie hand-picked by Crane, and given the Astros’ status as a popular pick to repeat this year, change here would pile surprise atop surprise.

It would also label Crane as an owner nobody wants to work for. No owner wants that, making Brown about as safe a short-term front office bet as there is.

Los Angeles Angels: With the franchise rumored to be on the market, GM Perry Minasian is probably safe, at least in the short term. If owner Arte Moreno is truly intent on selling the club, he’ll let the next owner decide Minasian’s fate.

Still, Minasian is under contract only through 2024, and he has failed to produce a postseason team in his three seasons. So if Moreno is in any way rethinking his sale plans, Minasian’s position could be less secure.

Oakland Athletics: General manager David Forst got a promotion of sorts when his long-time boss, Billy Beane, was elevated from team president to “senior advisor.” He’s now the unquestioned man in charge.

But that leaves Forst at the mercy of owner John Fisher, who may want a new front office leader to accompany his team’s move to Las Vegas. Since Forst’s contract expires at season’s end (and absent the cover offered by working alongside a legend of the front office game), Forst’s position has to be considered shaky.

Seattle Mariners: Jerry DiPoto was promoted to team president in 2022, with Justin Hollander taking over as general manager. The Mariners reached postseason play for the first time in two decades with that new leadership team, and they might repeat this season. Unless another team succeeds in poaching Hollander, this front office pairing is secure.

Texas Rangers: Former pitcher Chris Young took over a fading organization and has revitalized it into a division title contender, possibly supplanting the Astros. He works for an ownership team that has shown itself willing to spend money to win, and he’s shown the ability to spend it wisely.

All of that makes Young, for the immediate future anyway, a fixed asset in the Metroplex.

NL East

Atlanta Braves: Under Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves won the World Series two years ago. They could very easily repeat in 2023. Expect an extension offer for Anthopoulos, whose contract expires at the end of 2024. The only question then will be whether he takes that extension or makes himself a free agent.

Miami Marlins: Hired in 2021, Kim Ng is doing what many thought impossible, making the small-market Marlins relevant in the NL East. Miami is in contention for a Wild Card berth.

From the standpoint of Ng’s future, the outcome in 2023 really doesn’t matter. She’s secure.

New York Mets: Billy Eppler’s five seasons running the Angels (2016-20) were undistinguished, and that fact alone made it a bit surprising when team owner Steve Cohen announced Eppler’s hiring as general manager prior to the 2022 season.

Cohen gave Eppler a four-year guarantee through 2025, which ought to provide some security. But the mega-disappointing 2023 season, which featured Eppler basically throwing Cohen’s money away at aging underperforming talent, could call that relationship into question.

The most likely scenario is that Eppler will survive 2023 and be dumped at the end of 2024, but with the Mets nothing would be a surprise.

Philadelphia Phillies: President Dave Dombrowski has a contract running through 2027, so unless a health scare intervenes he’s solid. Given the way the team has performed (with that 2022 NL championship and a contending position this year) so is general manager Sam Fuld, who’s under contract through 2025.

Washington  Nationals: Mike Rizzo has been running the Nationals for the Lerner family for more than a  decade. He now works on a contract that expires at season’s end and has not been renewed.

That suggests change could be in the wind. At the same time, Rizzo built up a lot of capital with the Lerners by bringing home a 2019 World Series win, and his farm system ranks among the game’s 10 best. He’s also at an age (62) where retirement could be an option. In short, an extension and a change are both possibilities.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs: Unless external forces create a change, nothing’s happening here. Both team President Jed Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins are in solid with the Ricketts family. Hoyer and Hawkins also won points for their decision to stand against those demanding what would have been a senseless trade deadline shakeup.

Cincinnati Reds: This season alone, general manager Nick Krall’s efforts produced Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, Will Benson and Spencer Steer, all of that resulting in a contending position for the perennially downtrodden Reds.

Unless it’s of his own volition (and who’d walk away from this young cast?), Krall isn’t going anywhere.

Milwaukee Brewers: Promoted to president of baseball ops this past winter, Matt Arnold is in full command of the Brewers, who hold the inside track in the NL Central. He’s secure.

Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates started hot for general manager Ben Cherington, but cooled badly as summer wore on and will do well to escape the NL Central cellar. Cherington pinned many of his hopes on shortstop Oneil Cruz, who got hurt, and third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who has underperformed.

On the plus side, Pittsburgh’s farm system is rated second best in MLB, so maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel. Team owner Bob Nutting can be a very patient man; in his 16 years of ownership, Nutting has only had two chief execs, Cherington succeeding Neil Huntington. Unless that patience is wearing thin, Cherington probably returns.

St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals don’t take kindly to losing, but they’re also change-resistant in upper-level management. Since taking over in 1995, the DeWitt family has only once fired a GM.

Combine that with the fact that team president John Mozeliak has two years to run on his contract and he’s probably safe. GM Mike Girsch could be on shakier ground, but he’s Mozeliak’s guy until proven otherwise. The guess here is that the Cards stay with Mozeliak and Girsch and look for better times in 2024.