Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Atlanta Braves is not the best base stealer in 2023

Contrary to popular belief, Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is not the best base stealer in 2023.

Everyone following Major League Baseball this week is enamored about Ronald Acuna Jr. surpassing the 60 stolen base mark. Although a cool counting number and certainly a lot of stolen bases, there is more to stolen base value than just the total number.

Each time a player reaches base, he adds potential value for his team to score runs. Each time a player steals the next base, he is closer to reaching the end objective of home plate. Each time a player gets caught stealing, all of his once potential value added is now just as bad as a strikeout at home plate.

This logic is precisely why there are two other players in Major League Baseball I evaluate as better base stealers than Atlanta Braves star Ronald Acuna Jr.

First, CJ Abrams of the Washington Nationals has added the most value to his team’s run production via stealing bases in 2023. Thus, I conclude that he is the best base stealer of 2023. Here is how this calculates.

According to my numbers, I evaluate each stolen base adding roughly 0.17 run created value. One could take this even further in terms of play-by-play analysis for game out situational additions and subtractions, but my evaluation does not go that in depth. Secondly, as mentioned above, players who get caught stealing also take away created value from their team’s scoring chances. In my evaluation, I view getting caught stealing decreases team scoring potential by 0.52. Thus, it requires players to steal safely at a 75 percent or more success rate to breakeven (3 stolen bases x 0.17 = 0.51 and 1 caught stealing X -0.52 = -0.52).

Ronald Acuna Jr has 61 stolen bases and has been caught stealing 11 times. Do the math above and he created +4.54 runs. CJ Abrams has swiped 38 bases and only been caught three times. Although his total number of stolen bases is lower, his selectiveness pays off. His created run via stolen bases calculates to +4.87 runs.

This is not an exact science and many sabermetricians argue the true value of a game out situation, let alone the exact value of stolen bases. However, something to be considered here is for how good Ronald Acuna Jr. his inability to limit getting caught does come at a cost.

Speaking of caught stealing, a storyline no one is talking about but should be is Trea Turner’s remarkable stolen base success rate of 100%. He is 23 for 23 in 2023. That goes together well. Weirdly enough, he is 38 stolen bases behind Ronald Acuna Jr., but has a 11 caught stealing lead comparatively. Turner’s run created via stolen bases is +3.91 and not too far behind as that is good for fourth in Major League Baseball, even though he ranks tied for 21st in total stolen bases.

If he does not get caught by the end of the season, he will have tied the second-best season ever in this category of success. Carlos Beltran in 2004 for the Houston Astros went 28 for 28 and Chase Utley went 23 for 23 in 2009 for the Philadelphia Phillies. It is a rare feat of success.

Although Ronald Acuna Jr. being the first player since 2016 to steal 60+ bases is a cool counting statistic, I view CJ Abrams and Trea Turner as the two best base stealers in the game for various reasons.