Braxton Garrett: 2023 Miami Marlins MVP, 2024 secret weapon

Braxton Garrett has been a revelation for the Miami Marlins in 2023, and is arguably their most fascinating player heading into 2024.

When the 2023 season opened, plenty of speculation surrounded who would replace Pablo Lopez as the number two option in the Miami Marlins rotation behind staff ace Sandy Alcantara.

Would it be the wildly talented but incredibly inconsistent Edward Cabrera? Perhaps 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner up Trevor Rogers? More than likely, it’d be 2022 breakout Jesus Luzardo.

No one was predicting Braxton Garrett. Which only makes everybody wrong, as he not only secured that number two role, but has been the most valuable pitcher in terms of WAR on the Marlins roster … including Alcantara.

In fact, given the inconsistency and injuries that have dogged the entire Miami Marlins pitching staff this season, you can argue that Garrett has been the most valuable player on the entire team. Even more so than club WAR leader Luis Arraez, the player Lopez was traded for and only player with a higher 2023 WAR than Garrett. In 28 starts, he has only allowed more than three earned runs five times. In fact, if it weren’t for that aberrational, disastrous 11 earned run lapse against the Atlanta Braves early in the season, we would be talking about a first-time All-Star that was part of the Cy Young conversation.

So what exactly does that make Garrett? Only the 2024 Marlins’ secret weapon

Why? Because the club has a fascinating decision to make regarding him, boiling down to whether or not they believe that this 2023 version of Garrett is the real deal or a one-year wonder. Put another way, do they sell high or hold?

Cost certainly isn’t an issue. Quite the contrary, really, as he has a staggering five further years of team control. He’s not even arbitration-eligible until 2025, which only adds to his value, be it to the Miami Marlins, or any other MLB team. Any team would be happy to have a starting pitcher capable of putting up Garrett’s 2023 statlline for that little money.

However, just because Garrett doesn’t cost the Marlins much doesn’t mean that money isn’t the primary factor driving this secret weapon conversation. Because no matter how this season plays out, Miami is going to need fill multiple holes on offense next season. Particularly at catcher and shortstop, also known as the two thinnest positions in the upcoming free agent class. Granted, the season-long production Miami has gotten out of those spots in the lineup have been such that almost any change would be a step in the right direction. Still, the best way to upgrade will be via trade, and probably one in a similar vein to the aforementioned Lopez (and prospects) for Arraez swap.

This is where Garrett’s breakout 2023 comes in. Back when that deal was made, it’s fair to say that Garrett wasn’t necessarily part of the calculus when it came to listing the pool of upside starting pitching the Marlins had to work with. Without question, 2023 has been a brutal lesson for Miami in the truism that you can never have enough pitching. And a case could be made that the Jake Eder for Jake Burger swap at the deadline renders this argument moot.

Still, if the 2024 Marlins want more offensive talent than the 2023 Marlins, they are going to have make another trade. Garrett now gives them the flexibility to either send him off at the peak of his value, or to trade away an arm like Cabrera, Rogers, or perhaps even Max Meyer. Assets better beloved by the scouts, but ones with more warts when it comes to actual MLB production.

Without Garrett’s 2023 success, dealing another pitcher would be unthinkable. With it, it puts that option back on the table for the Miami Marlins.