For roughly half of his career, Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in the National League.
What's odd about that statement isn't that Nola has dealt with serious struggles amidst his success — this is the major leagues, after all. What's odd is that Nola's struggles are seemingly on a timer. Every other year — specifically, in even years — Nola is a Cy Young contender, while in odd years, he barely resembles a mid-rotation starter.
The trend is continuing on schedule this year, as Nola lead MLB in losses (seven) and is logging a 6.16 ERA (5.03 FIP) in 49 2/3 innings across nine starts for the Philadelphia Phillies. With an IL trip on the docket as he battles a nagging ankle sprain, Nola's struggles continue to befuddle a competitive Phillies team.
Aaron Nola's odd-year struggles could sink Phillies if regression hits in 2025
Lest you think I'm overplaying Nola's patented odd-year dip, just look at the numbers.
Since 2018, the first time Nola received Cy Young support, he's posted even-year ERAs of 2.37, 3.28, 3.25, and 3.57. In each of those campaigns, he earned Cy Young votes, topping out at third place in 2018.
However, in odd years since 2018, Nola has ERAs of 3.87, 4.63, 4.46, and now 6.16. He never earned a single Cy Young vote in any of those seasons.
One part of Nola's profile that remained consistent was his durability. Save for the 2020-pandemic season, Nola started at least 32 games in every season since 2018, gobbling up at least 180 innings every time and more than 200 innings thrice. Regardless of how he was performing on the mound, the Phillies could rely on him to trot out there every five days.
This ankle injury throws that into flux, though that may be for the best.
The reason why the Phillies are in second-place in the NL East with a 25-18 record despite Nola's struggles is the quality of their pitching staff (and their stars in the lineup).
Zach Wheeler has been baseball's most consistent pitcher since signing with the Phillies prior to 2020, posting a 2.94 ERA in nearly 900 frames. That includes the 2.95 ERA he's authored in 58 innings this season.
Joining him atop the rotation in the City of Brotherly Love are Christopher Sánchez (2.91 ERA in 43 1/3 IP) and Jesús Luzardo (2.00 ERA, 54 IP). Both pitchers are playing lights out baseball this year, but the former's 3.60 career ERA and the latter's 4.07 mark do warn that possible regression is coming.
Should that come to pass, the Phillies will need Nola to both return from his injury and return to (even-year) form. Maybe they'll just have to remove all the calendars in the locker room.