It is a massive surprise that the top third basemen free agent, Alex Bregman, is still on the market. CBS Sports ranked Bregman as the #3 free agent available at the beginning of free agency.
Several teams, including the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Phillies, and Mets, have been linked to the All-Star third baseman at varying points throughout the offseason.
The Astros signed Christian Walker and traded for Isaac Paredes to cover both corner infield positions, likely signaling the end of Bregman's time in Houston. Most other teams on that list have already added one, if not multiple, star players this offseason that may preclude them from adding Bregman to the budget.
There is one team has tried to take a shot at the top-tier free agent targets, including Juan Soto (Mets), Max Fried (Yankees), and Corbin Burnes (Diamondbacks), but has fallen short. The Toronto Blue Jays are now under immense pressure to prove to their young superstars, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, that the organization wants to win now since both are eligible for free agency following the 2025 season.
Is signing Bregman a wise decision for the Blue Jays?
According to Jon Heyman, the Blue Jays are now one of two favorites for Bregman as of New Years Day (the Tigers being the other).
Bregman has stated he is seeking a seven-year contract worth $200 million this offseason, which would certainly qualify as the top-tier acquisition the Blue Jay fans are seeking. He had a down year regarding run production (76 RBIs) and on-base percentage (.315) this past season.
His track record offers much more reason for optimism, considering he drove in 93 and 98 runs in the last two seasons, respectively, and posted a .350+ OBP the previous four seasons.
The Blue Jays acquired Andrés Giménez this offseason from the Cleveland Guardians, which means Ernie Clement is projected to be the third baseman for the upcoming season. However, Clement lacks the offensive production to impact the team significantly. He hit .263/.284/.408 in 434 at-bats in 2024, with only 12 HRs and 51 RBIs.
Bregman will be a massive boost to the offense, but if he signs close to the $200 million he wants, then that could hurt the chances of signing both Bichette and Guerrero Jr. next offseason. However, the longer Bregman goes unsigned, the less leverage he possesses, which means he may realistically sign closer to the $21 million qualifying offer he rejected from the Astros (which would be in the $140-150 million range over seven years).
Even though it would cost a lot, Alex Bregman truly feels like the type of player the #Bluejays would pay up for
— Blue Jays Today (@TodayJays) January 2, 2025
A strong proven veteran defender at a key position who’s been consistent with the bat
It’s Matt Chapman 2.0 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/I07mpDN8gD
Looking at the following offseason, the Blue Jays have a big decision regarding Bichette and Guerrero. The latter has a lot of leverage in contract negotiations, since he is 26 years old, made his fourth consecutive All-Star appearance in 2024, and has averaged over 25 HRs and 94 RBIs over the last four years.
After an offseason where Soto signed a 15-year $765 million contract, it would not be unrealistic for the Blue Jay first baseman to request a deal in the $400-500 million range next offseason if the two sides do not come to an agreement before then.
Bichette turns 27 before the upcoming season, so he will also have leverage, although he does not post the offensive numbers that Guerrero Jr. can. He had an injury-riddled 2024 season, hitting .225 with only four HRs and 31 RBIs.
The two sides avoided arbitration by signing the shortstop to a 3-year $33 million deal before the 2023 season. Bichette will certainly attract a bigger payday in his next contract, however, that may be with a new team, as there is a lot of buzz around the possibility of the Blue Jays trading away their shortstop, which would make signing Bregman easier financially but more confusing from a contention perspective.
The Blue Jays face an offseason in which they have struggled to bring top-tier talent to pair with their young superstars. No matter what happens, the Blue Jays have to be planning on how to improve this season while keeping in mind the massive long-term contract first baseman Guerrero Jr. will be looking for next offseason.