Anthony Rizzo says he wants to play Major League Baseball in 2025. The problem, as 30 teams seem to have concurrently decided, is that Rizzo is no longer worth the money he wants.
Rizzo, 35, spoke with Ken Rosenthal and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about his desire to play, but on his terms. His old team, the Yankees, paid $6 million to buy out Rizzo’s contract rather than pick up his $17 million option.
Then, they turned around and signed 37-year-old Paul Goldschmidt for $12.5 million.
Rizzo sounds as if he sees collective age discrimination in the lack of interest in him. “If teams are not going to want to pay a few million dollars for veterans… they kind of get squeezed,” Rizzo said. “Teams want you to play for basically minimum. I’m like, ‘you guys are crazy.”
What teams are actually doing is making sound business assessments. Three seasons into a clear decline phase of his career, Rizzo simply is no longer capable of generating the on-field production that a $12 million, $15 million or $17 million first baseman is expected to produce.
Anthony Rizzo's production does not match asking price
Since 2022, he’s averaged 446 plate appearances per year — about two-thirds of a full season — but that availability has declined annually. Plus, he hit .228 in 2024 with a .637 slugging average, the worst power production of his 14-season career.
That worked out to an 81 OPS+ on a scale where 100 equals the average. His walk rate, long a Rizzo hallmark, fell to 7.2 percent, another career worst.
From a front office standpoint, the true test is how Rizzo’s production stacks up against other players making the kind of money he seeks to make and taking the field the amount of time he can be expected to see action. That data is highly unfavorable to Rizzo.
The table below shows both the 2024 salaries and productivity, as measured by Win Probability Added, of first basemen who, like Rizzo, earned at least $10 million last season while making the most starts on their team at first base. Also shown are the average salaries and WPAs of all 30 of the most frequent starters at first base. Collectively, those players represent Rizzo’s current financial comps.
First baseman | Salary (millions) | 2024 WPA |
|---|---|---|
Bryce Harper | $27.54 | +0.1 |
Freddie Freeman | $27.00 | +1.5 |
Paul Goldschmidt | $26.00 | -0.7 |
Matt Olson | $22.00 | +1.0 |
Pete Alonso | $20.50 | +0.5 |
Vlad Guerrero Jr. | $19.90 | +2.8 |
Anthony Rizzo | $17.00 | -0.4 |
Rhys Hoskins | $12.00 | +0.8 |
Christian Walker | $10.90 | +0.1 |
MLB Avg. 1B | $8.30 | +0.26 |
The chart demonstrates that MLB teams are paying $8.3 million for an average of about one-quarter of a positive WPA in production at first base. Rizzo, benefitting from a decent 2022 season, still has only averaged about one-third of a WPA for the most recent three seasons. Look only at 2023-24 and he’s netted -1.4 WPA. Why would any team interested in winning think that’s worth an eight-figure salary?
There’s a second way to run the numbers, that being to look at the first basemen who played roughly as frequently as Rizzo in 2024 (about 90 games). Last season, eight players started between 80 and 100 games at first base, the eight being Michael Toglia, Josh Bell, Spencer Torkelson, Rhys Hoskins, Jon Singleton, LaMonte Wade, Jake Cronenworth and Rizzo.
Of the eight, Rizzo ranked sixth (-0.4 WPA) in productivity, the group average being +0.16 WPA. He did however rank first in cost at $17 million, more than twice the $7.33 million average for the octet.
Here’s the bottom line: If Rizzo is willing to adjust to the realities of his predictable performance and work for a few million, he may be able to find a taker.
But if he continues to position himself as being victimized by age discrimination, he’s closer to the old folks home than the dugout.