Cleveland Guardians
Best-case scenario: The 2024 Guardians won 92 games and the AL Central with virtually no help from their top two arms, Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie. Obviously, the team’s best-case scenario begins with a return to health for that pair.
If Bieber — who isn’t expected back until mid-season — and McKenzie can combine to give manager Stephen Vogt even 40 starts and 250 combined innings of reasonable quality, Cleveland stands a legit chance to defend their division title.
Also on the Guardians' 2025 wish list:
1. Another dominant season from the bullpen led by Emmanuel Clase.
2. No letup from third baseman Jose Ramirez.
3. The emergence of shortstop Brayan Rocchio as a competent batter atop the defensive skills he demonstrated as a rookie.
4. A breakthrough season from rookie Kyle Manzardo, either at first base or DH.
Give the Guardians most of that wish list and you have another divisional and postseason contender.
Worst-case scenario: There are pitfalls all over the Guardians 2025 roster. What if Bieber and/or McKenzie don’t return to form, throwing the load on journeyman Gavin Williams and youngster Luis Ortiz, acquired in a December trade with Pittsburgh?
What if the bullpen does what bullpens often do, swinging from dominant to helpless? What if Rocchio shows himself to be overmatched at the plate? What if Manzardo flops, underlining the offensive loss created by the trade of Josh Naylor and his 31 home runs to Arizona?
The collective answer: Then the Guardians risk spending the summer watching the Tigers, Royals and possibly the Twins all scoot past them in the divisional hierarchy.
Most likely scenario: The last two times the Guardians posted a winning percentage of .565 or better, they lost 100 points off that level in the following season. Cleveland had a .571 percentage in 2024, but building a consistent winner on a bullpen foundation is notoriously tricky.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the rotation, Cleveland may do well to top .500 in 2025.