Detroit Tigers
Best-case scenario: With Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal leading the charge, the Tigers were third in the AL in 2024 in run prevention. But they were a mediocre ninth in run production. That means the case for improvement begins with the offense.
Think in terms of Colt Keith (23 years old), Riley Greene (24), Jace Jung (24) and Wenceel Perez (25). Their average OPS last season was around .700, a far from noteworthy figure. If they collectively progress to something close to .800 — not out of the question given their talent — the Tigers will be a serious offensive machine.
It’s asking too much of Skubal to be better than he was in 2024. But if he comes close to replicating his Cy Young season, the presence of Jack Flaherty as a full-season sidekick gives Detroit one of the game’s best one-two punches. Reese Olson, 25, made 22 starts good for 112 innings with a 3.53 ERA; raise that to 30 starts and 160 innings, and the Tigers can stand toe to toe with almost any rotation.
Worst-case scenario: Perez, Keith, Jung and Greene don’t take the next offensive step, putting the offensive onus on returnees Parker Meadows and Javier Baez – already a pariah in Detroit – plus winter pickup Gleyber Torres.
With another unproductive lineup, the best efforts of Skubal, Flaherty, Olson and a deep bullpen are only good enough to keep the Tigers on the outer fringes of divisional contention.
Most likely scenario: Keith and Jung both juice the offense, joining Meadows in the .780 to .800 OPS category. Coupled with the expected pitching depth, that’s enough to keep the Tigers in serious divisional contention to the final week, their ultimate fate hanging on a season-ending road swing through Cleveland and Boston.