Kansas City Royals
Best-case scenario: Cole Ragans, fourth in last year’s Cy Young Award voting, leads a Royals sweep of the showcase awards in 2025, presaging Bobby Witt Jr’s unanimous MVP selection and Jac Caglianone as Rookie of the Year.
Healthy for a full season, Vinny Pasquantino hits 30 homers and drives in120, many of them represented by Jonathan India, revitalized by his removal from fifth-wheel status in Cincinnati. Salvador Perez, at 35, has one more fully productive season in him, and manager Matt Quatraro identifies a solution to the one gaping hole in the lineup at third base.
Somebody — Kyle Wright, Kris Bubic or Daniel Lynch — steps up as a reliable fourth starter behind Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. With Witt and Ragans leading the way, the Royals win 95 games and overpower the AL Central
Worst-case scenario: Coming off the best season of his career, age begins to catch up with Lugo, 35, who manages no better than a 4.00 ERA in less than 30 starts. The same fate befalls Wacha, 33, leaving Ragans as the one reliable element in an otherwise mediocre rotation.
India demonstrates what the Reds had previously determined: That the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year really is at best an unreliable on-base guy with no power and no particular position. In short, a one-year wonder.
The outfield of Melendez, Isbel and Renfroe makes it two seasons in a row without a .700+ OPS, creating an offensive chasm behind Witt and Pasquantino. The Royals find themselves in a desperate late-season push to run down Detroit, Cleveland and/or Minnesota for a fringe playoff spot.
Most-likely scenario. Ragans and Witt both contend for the prestige awards, and their efforts keep Kansas City in postseason contention in the highly-winnable AL Central.