Minnesota Twins
Best-case scenario: The Twins’ dream scenario begins with health; namely, that Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa each suit up for somewhere around 150 games. They averaged 90 in 2024 and none of the three has played 150 in a season since Correa did so for Houston in 2016.
Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan provided a reliable top three starters in 2024, but the quality — ERAs around 3.90 in their combined 86 starts — leaves something to be desired. If they step up, and if Simeon Woods-Richardson outgrows his 4.17 ERA rookie season, the Twins' staff could become an asset.
Give Minnesota full seasons from the above-named seven players and the Twins will contend.
Worst-case scenario: What annually happens to Lewis, Buxton and Correa happens again, and the Twins are lucky to get a combined 300 starts from them.
Ryan, Ober and Lopez, all 29 years old (as is No. 5 starter Chris Paddack), demonstrate that their 2024 performances actually established their peak, and Woods-Richardson fails to learn the lessons from his 28 rookie starts. Result: another mediocre staff ERA hovering above 4.00.
Combine lackluster pitching with the gaps created by the absences of Correa, Buxton and Lewis, and the Twins reprise their 2024 fourth-place finish.
Most likely scenario: Buxton, Lewis and Correa average 130 starts, enough to keep Minnesota in contention.
But Ryan, Ober, Lopez and Woods-Richardson prove to be, at best, an average rotation, and their unreliability prevents the Twins from separating themselves from their AL Central challengers. Their final four series are against the Yankees, Guardians, Rangers and Phillies, and they’ll need to perform at their best to survive that stretch.