San Diego Padres
Best-case scenario: This is the year when Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth and Xander Bogaerts synch up their abundant talents in a grand, eloquent symphony.
With Michael King and Dylan Cease both producing All-Star seasons, the loss of Joe Musgrove to Tommy John surgery is barely noticed. Luis Arraez wins a fourth straight batting title, not that anybody notices.
The combination of that fully functioning offense and a pitching staff that leads the league in ERA transforms the Padres from a respected playoff contender into a juggernaut. They roll into the postseason as champions of the NL West.
Worst-case scenario: San Diego’s worst-case scenario involves only so-so seasons from Tatis, Bogaerts and Machado, a sophomore slump for Merrill, and the inability of Jason Heyward to replace the departed Jurickson Profar, who is missed more than anybody in San Diego anticipated. If things really turn sour, Cease and/or King is dumped in a salary-related move at the deadline.
But even that dire outcome still leaves the Padres in reasonable contention for the division’s runner-up spot and a repeat postseason appearance.
Most likely scenario: The Padres are deep and talented enough to lock up second in the NL West, win 90 games and reach October.