Few teams face the 2025 season under as much scrutiny as the Chicago Cubs, and few front office executives are under as much pressure as team president Jed Hoyer.
The Cubs haven’t played a postseason game since 2020, when they were swept out of the COVID-19 postseason by the upstart Miami Marlins. They haven’t even won a postseason series since 2017.
To end that string of mediocre performances — including back-to-back 83-win seasons in 2023 and 2024 — Hoyer spent the offseason taking high-risk, high-return chances with the team’s roster.
Cubs 2025 Roster: What's changed, what hasn't, and who will star?
He traded for free agent-to-be Kyle Tucker in the hope(s) that Tucker would be the power source the team has lacked for years, and also that he could sign Tucker beyond 2025. Tucker came at the cost of third baseman Isaac Paredes and pitcher Hayden Wesneski, as well as top prospect Cam Smith.
To fill the gap at third base, he bypassed the chance to sign free agent Alex Bregman and instead opted to entrust the job to rookie Matt Shaw, one of the leading lights of a touted farm system.
He eschewed big-name rotation options and instead signed free agent Matt Boyd for two seasons at the relative bargain rate of $29 million. That might pay off big; Boyd had a 2.72 ERA for the Guardians in 2024, and also performed well in the playoffs.
But it could also flop big. Boyd underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023, and his career 4.85 ERA isn’t much of an endorsement for a multi-year contract.
Cubs 2025 Preview: NL Central appears winnable for Chicago
The NL Central is viewed as one of the game’s most available divisions, but to the extent there’s a consensus favorite, it’s probably the Cubs. There's nothing really new about that; they were a popular pick in 2024 but finished 10 games behind the Brewers.
Their two-game, season-opening Japan swing with the Dodgers produced nothing more than angst; the offense hit .172 with a .493 OPS that would bring great honor to a little league team. If the Dodgers are the standard against which other teams are measured, it’s worth noting that L.A.’s OPS in those two games was .801… and that was without Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman.
The Cubs’ tale may be told quickly because short-term, the schedule doesn’t get much easier. By the time they wake up on April 27, the Cubs will have played 29 games, 23 of them against either the Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks or Phillies.
The Cubs have the assets to fight through that challenging early grind. Their top three starters — Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon — combined for a 32-16 record and 3.08 ERA last year. Tucker had a .993 OPS that would have had him in MVP discussions had he not been limited by an injury to just 78 games.
But expectations on the North Side are largely premised on hope, an enduring commodity among Cubs fans. Can Pete Crow-Armstrong hit enough to become the all-around player fans envision? Can Michael Busch repeat (and possibly improve on) his 21-homer rookie season? Can Shaw justify his presence at third? Can Miguel Amaya grow into a reliable catcher? Can Dansby Swanson…? Can Boyd…? Can Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and/or Javier Assad…?
If some of those question marks translate into exclamation points, the Cubs should justify their consensus status as division favorites.
But if many of those hopes evaporate in the Chicago summer, Hoyer’s winter gambles are likely to come under harsh criticism. Led by Elly De La Cruz, the Reds are making noises suggesting that they, not the Cubs, ought to be the real NL Central favorites. And despite the losses of their shortstop, a quality starter, and their ace closer, nobody with NL Central experience dismisses the Milwaukee Brewers.
If the Cubs fail to live up to expectations, Hoyer could be the casualty. This is his fifth season as team president; he took over for Theo Epstein after the 2020 season. The last Cubs chief exec who lasted five seasons without producing at least one postseason team was Bob Kennedy way back in 1977-81. He was fired immediately after the latter season.
Cubs fans were a lot more adapted to failure in 1981 than they are today. The Cubs ought to return to playoff ball this season, probably as division champions. But if they don’t, Hoyer and Tucker may both be elsewhere next spring.