Gerrit Cole’s decision explained after Yankees ace opts out of contract

When Gerrit Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract with the New York Yankees following the Houston Astros' Game 7 World Series loss in 2019—which, at the time, was the largest deal ever given to a pitcher—the expectation was that he would be trusted in the team's highest leverage moments throughout the next decade.

Since putting pen to paper, Cole has lived up to the hype, finishing in the top ten of AL Cy Young voting in every single season while wearing pinstripes, including a 2023 season in which he finally secured the award. While the regular season success was nice, it was the playoffs where the Yankees needed Cole to shine the brightest. Before this season, Cole was mostly fine under the bright lights of the postseason, though his most memorable performances were his 2021 AL Wild Card shellacking at the hands of the Red Sox, and his loss to the Astros in the 2022 ALCS.

Finally, though, in 2024, Cole and the Yankees broke through, winning the AL pennant on the back of three solid starts from their ace, as well as some timely hitting. And while Cole's stats from the World Series—two starts, 0.71 ERA, ten strikeouts against four walks—look solid on the surface, it's the team's fifth-inning blunders in Game 5 that speak the loudest. Cole, of course, committed the third and final gaffe of the inning, forgetting to cover first base on a routine ground ball that would have ended the frame without any runs for the Dodgers.

With their season now wrapped, Cole had a decision to make: he could opt out of the final four years of his current deal, potentially leaving upwards of $144 million on the table, or he could elect to remain in New York for $36 million per year over the next four years.

Well, on Saturday, November 2, Cole made his call: he will not be remaining in New York on his current deal.

What Cole's Decision Means For Yankees

Now, to understand why Cole, who is playing is for his favorite childhood team and having ample success in the Big Apple, would elect to opt out of his contract, it's important to understand the mechanics of his deal. By opting out, Cole has given the Yankees a chance to retain him for an additional year at the same salary. If the team chooses to do that (they will), then Cole will play the next five seasons in the Bronx for $180 million.

Effectively, Cole's decision to opt out actually guarantees he'll remain in New York for longer, since the Yankees have to tack on that extra year to keep him. They could let him test free agency, but he will almost certainly find a deal in excess of $200 million waiting for him. Thus, Cole's choice results in a win-win for both sides, since Cole can continue playing for his favorite team, and the Yankees can retain their ace at a relatively discounted rate.

Now, while it seems like a formailty, the Yankees could technically decline the option to extend Cole and let him test the free agent waters. He dealt with elbow injuries this year, is currently 34 years old, would be 38 in the fifth year of his contract, and saw declining velocity and strikeout numbers this season. Plus, they're about to engage in a bidding war for the ages for Juan Soto, who could put about $600 million in stress on their payroll when all is said and done.

Still, the Yankees are already an expensive, aging team. Their championship window exists in the here and now, and letting Cole walk would mean Carlos Rodón and Luis Gil would be the team's top two projected starters in 2025. Solid pitchers, to be sure, but not the kind you want leading a World Series-hopeful in October.

Thus, expect the Yankees to tack on that fifth year within the next 36 hours, when their deadline to keep Cole in town expires. As much as it could hurt paying him and a 36-year-old Aaron Judge $76 million combined in 2029, this is the Yankees. They aren't playing for five years from now. If the team hopes to return to the Fall Classic next year, keeping Cole is a necessary part of the equation.

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