Since 2017, when the Cubs won the National League Central with a 92-70 record, there have been seven seasons, four of which ended with the Brewers atop the division. Only once since then have the Cubs finished the year in the top spot, and that was in the Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. The Cardinals won the remaining two division titles, as the Reds and Pirates have been shutout for more than a decade.
Those latter two teams have promising young cores led by superstars on the mound (Paul Skenes, Hunter Greene) and in the lineup (Oneil Cruz, Elly De La Cruz), but they've been generally inactive this offseason and are still missing a number of key pieces before they can be taken seriously.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are in the beginning stages of a total rebuild. Against all odds, they’ve been even less active than the Reds and Pirates, unless you want to count their constant updates on trading third baseman Nolan Arenado. They stand to lose most of their veteran talent this offseason, and won't be a serious factor in the division in 2025.
Thus, we arrive at the meat and potatoes of the division: the Brewers and Cubs.
The balance of power in the NL Central is shifting
Milwaukee has won the NL Central in consecutive seasons, and has claimed three of the past four titles. They’re the cream of the crop as far as track record is concerned, though this offseason may have fundamentally altered that perception. They dealt Devin Williams in a blockbuster with the Yankees, receiving injury-prone starter Nestor Cortés Jr. and second base prospect Caleb Durbin in return.
Cortés is an upside play that comes loaded with baggage — including serving up that Freddie Freeman walk-off grand slam in Game One of the World Series — but the Brewers’ voodoo magic pitching factory will probably turn him back into an All-Star in 2025.
Durbin is the more interesting piece in the deal since he’s got a unique hitting profile, but his spot is blocked by gold glover Brice Turang. Turang could always replace Willy Adames’ vacant spot at shortstop — another notable loss for the Brew Crew this winter — but taking him away from his best position will only hurt the defense. More likely, Durbin will be asked to take over at third base, where Oliver Dunn currently resides.
Besides that Williams move, the Brewers have mostly been inactive this offseason. They took a couple of players in the Rule 5 Draft, but losing Adames and Williams is going to sting. They’re surely banking on in-house improvements from their young core, which is led by phenom Jackson Chourio. Just because they’ve lost some stars doesn’t mean they’ll be pushovers come 2025.
However, the Cubs clearly see the opening the Brewers have left them. They’ve been among the most active teams this winter, bringing in Eli Morgan, Matthew Boyd, Gage Workman, Carson Kelly, Cody Poteet, and, of course, Kyle Tucker to supplement a roster that went 83-79 last year.
They’ve lost some talent, too, including Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes, but on the whole, this is a much better team on paper than it was when the season ended. If they can pull off a trade for a “big-name starter” as has been rumored recently, they’ll enter spring training as one of baseball’s most improved teams.
Is all that change enough to bridge the gap between Milwaukee and Chicago? It’s hard to say, especially since the offseason is only halfway over, but the Cubs evidently don’t want to leave things to chance this year.
Either way, the Cubs can’t stop now. Aggressiveness has been the name of the game since the calendar flipped to December, and the reward for keeping it up is a straight path to the division crown come 2025.