MLB Awards finalists named, Ohtani and Judge remain favorites for MVP

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced their finalists for each of baseball's four major awards tonight: MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year.

As a brief reminder: each league (the National League and American League) has a recipient for each of these awards. There is no "consensus" MVP or "best pitcher" award in baseball, though that only makes discussions about this season's top performers that much more engaging. Also, postseason stats do not contribute to awards voting; each award was voted on by the BWAA at the conclusion of the regular season.

Below are the finalists for each award, and their likelihood of capturing it.

MVP

As expected, Shohei Ohtani (NL) and Aaron Judge (AL) were named as one of the three finalists in their respective leagues for the MVP award, and they're all but certainly going take home the hardware when the winners are officially announced on November 21.

In his first season in the National League, Ohtani wasn't able to live up to his two-way status due to an ongoing recover from Tommy John surgery. However, like Babe Ruth before him, being able to focus solely on hitting (as the Dodgers' primary DH) turned him into an offensive juggernaut, the likes of which the game hasn't seen before. He became the first player in MLB history to post a 50/50 season, leading the NL in WAR (9.2), plate appearances (731), home runs (54), RBIs (130), on-base percentage (.390), slugging percentage (.646), OPS (1.036), OPS+ (190), and total bases (411), and he tacked on 59 steals for good measure. Suffice to say, he's living up to that $700 million contract.

Judge, meanwhile, took advantage of Ohtani's exodus to the senior circuit, leading the AL in WAR (10.8), home runs (58), RBIs (144), walks (133), on-base percentage (.458), slugging percentage (.701), OPS (1.159), OPS+ (223), and total bases (392). After their legendary MVP race in 2022, voters were likely relived to not have to make a choice between Ohtani and Judge again this year.

The other NL finalists were Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (.273/.344/.500, 7.0 WAR) and Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte (.292/.372/.560, career-high 36 home runs).

In the AL, Judge's teammate Juan Soto (.288/..419/.569, league-leading 128 runs) will join him atop the MVP podium, along with Kansas City Royals superstar Bobby Witt Jr. (.332/.389/.588, AL batting title).

Cy Young

Like the MVP race, each league has prohibitive favorites to take home the Cy Young award, though their journeys to get here couldn't be more different.

In the NL, Chris Sale seemingly found the fountain of youth after years of struggling with injuries towards the end of his tenure with the Boston Red Sox. After being dealt for fledgling infielder Vaughn Grissom, Sale single-handedly kept a bleeding Atlanta Braves rotation alive in 2024, leading the NL in ERA (2.38), strikeouts (225), and FIP (2.09). He also threw his most innings since 2017. Now seven years removed from the seven-year stretch (2012-18) in which he finished top-six in AL Cy Young voting without ever capturing the award, Sale will win a Cy Young in his first season in the National League when the award is officially handed out on November 20.

Like Sale, Tarik Skubal led his league in ERA (2.39), strikeouts (228), and FIP (2.50). Unlike the veteran lefty, Skubal's breakout continued a trend of consecutive years with an improving ERA, and the ace of the Detroit Tigers secured the pitching triple crown in the junior circuit with his performance in 2024. He'll join Sale as a first-time Cy Young recipient in nine days' time.

Elsewhere in the NL, Pirates all-galaxy rookie Paul Skenes (more on him below) and perennial Cy Young candidate Zach Wheeler (200 innings, 2.57 ERA, 224 strikeouts, league-leading 0.955 WHIP) are also in the top three of Cy Young voting.

In the American League, Royals ace Seth Lugo (206 2/3 innings, 3.00 ERA, 181 strikeouts, Gold Glove winner) has the inside track to finishing No. 2 in the race. Another AL Central pitcher, Guardians' reliver Emmanuel Clase (74 1/3 innings, 0.61 ERA, league-leading 47 saves, 4.4 WAR as a reliever!) will likely finish third despite his absurdly dominant season, though he's a shoo-in for the AL Reliever of the Year award on November 14.

Rookie of the Year

The ROTY award spices things up a bit, as both leagues have two frontrunners that will compete for the award. Still, it's easy to draw conclusions about who may win, especially in the NL.

The National League is home to San Diego Padres stud Jackson Merrill, who posted a 4.4 WAR and .826 OPS in 156 games as the starting center fielder for a team that won 93 games in 2024. In most years, that's be a hell of a sales pitch for top rookie honors, but over in Pittsburgh, Pirates rookie Paul Skenes lived up to his billing as the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. In 133 innings, Skenes posted a Pedro Martinez-esque 1.96 ERA (which would have won him the MLB ERA title if he had enough innings to qualify) to go along with 170 strikeouts and a jaw-dropping 214 ERA+. If it weren't for the always-middling Pirates being so middling, this wouldn't even be a competition. Still, expect Skenes to lock up the NL's ROTY award on November 18.

Over in the AL, the race is a bit fiercer, with Luis Gil (Yankees) and Colton Cowser (Orioles) seen as the favorites. Gil erupted after years of knocking on the door to the majors, posting a 3.50 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 151 2/3 innings. Cowser made himself comfortable in a loaded Orioles lineup, hitting 24 home runs and slugging .447 for the Yankees' primary competition in the AL East. Both players were worth 3.1 WAR in 2024, making this perhaps the closest race of any of the eight listed here.

The other finalist in the NL is Brewers phenom Jackson Chourio (.275/.327/.464, 3.8 WAR). In the AL, Yankees catcher Austin Wells (.229/,.322/.395, 2.5 WAR) is expected to finish third in the voting.

Manager of the Year

Unlike each of the previous three awards, there are no obvious favorites for this award (there rarely are). Given that this was the the first year since 2014 without a 100-game winner (not including the pandemic-shortened 2020 season), voters likely had a tough time parsing through the available options.

In the National League, Mets skipper Carlos Mendoza (89-73, Wild Card #3), Brewers manager Pat Murphy (93-69, NL Central title), and Padres leader Mike Shildt (93-69, Wild Card #1) will do battle. A fascinating fact about this race is that each coach is in their first year as manager with their respective teams. The winner will be announced on November 19.

And, in the American League, the Tigers' A.J. Hinch (86-76, Wild Card #3), the Royals' Matt Quatraro (86-76, Wild Card #2), and the Guardians' Stephen Vogt (92-69, AL Central title) are the finalists for manager of the year. Keen eyed readers will notice that all three of those managers pilot teams from the AL Central, giving the division some serious coaching street cred heading into 2025.

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