MLB Draft Lottery: Who has the No. 1 pick, and who are the top draft prospects

It's that time of year to determine what team will get the No. 1 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft and the order for picks 1-6. The MLB Draft Lottery was held December 10, where 16 of the 18 teams that missed out on the postseason got put into a drawing, and their record determined the chance of getting the top pick.

Last year, the Cleveland Guardians had 2% odds and won the first pick, selecting second baseman Travis Bazzana out of Oregon State. Below were the odds for the first pick in this year's lottery:

Why were the White Sox and Athletics not included?

The White Sox and Athletics were ineligible to receive a lottery pick this year, and the earliest they were allowed to be in the draft order is the No. 10 and No. 11 picks (which is where they ended up).

The Athletics received a lottery pick for the 2023 and 2024 drafts. They cannot receive a lottery pick three years in a row because they are a revenue sharing recipient (a percentage of each team's local revenue is put in a pool and distributed to all 30 teams to help smaller market teams compete with larger ones). Recipient teams cannot receive lottery picks in three consecutive years, per MLB Draft rules.

The White Sox received a lottery pick in the 2024 draft and are considered a "payor club" because they put more into the revenue-sharing system than they receive. Therefore, they are ineligible to receive a lottery pick in the 2025 draft, as payors cannot pick in the lottery two years in a row.

The Official 2025 MLB Draft

Like the 2024 MLB Draft Lottery, the favorites for the top pick did not win. The Washington Nationals were the lucky winners. They had the fourth best odds at 10.2 percent, so it is not as big a shock as the Guardians' climb from two percent odds.

Below is the official draft order for the 2025 MLB Draft:

The lottery only affects the first round; the rest of the draft will be ordered from lowest winning percentage to best.

Who are the top choices for the Nationals to select with the first pick?

1. Ethan Holliday (Shortstop/Third base, Stillwater High School, Oklahoma)

Ethan is the son of former Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday and the younger brother of Jackson Holliday, the 2022 No.1 pick of the Baltimore Orioles. If Ethan goes No. 1, it would be the first time siblings have been both No. 1 picks. The closest to do this was B.J. and Justin Upton, who went No.2 and No.1 in their respective drafts.

Ethan is taller than the average MLB shortstop at 6'4", so he may move to third base in his professional career. Prospects Live's scouting report claims: "Ethan is already more physical and displaying louder tools than Jackson did at this stage." He weighs 210 pounds, so he is a powerful hitter, but adding more muscle as he matures will improve his power potential, which he is already starting to show.

If Ethan decides to pass on the draft, he has already committed to nearby Oklahoma State, although passing on being the No. 1 draft pick for the Nationals would be a tough decision.

2. Jace LaViolette (Outfielder, Texas A&M)

Jace LaViolette is a junior outfielder for the Texas A&M Aggies and is the top college prospect going into the 2025 season. He is a towering 6'6" and weighs 230 pounds. He possesses the tools to deliver the power and speed MLB team salivate over in the outfield.

In two seasons at Texas A&M, Jace has a batting average of .297 with 50 HRs and 141 RBIs. He has also drawn 112 walks and 25 stolen bases. His advanced plate approach speaks to his well-rounded profile, and he became the first player in Texas A&M history to have back-to-back 20+ home run seasons.

3. Jamie Arnold (Left-handed pitcher, Florida State)

Jamie Arnold is a junior left-handed pitcher for the Florida State Seminoles and is listed at 6'1" and 188 pounds. According to Prospects Live, Arnold throws a 94-95 mph sinker, a slider in the mid-80s, and a raw changeup. That last offering is one he does not throw often because of a lack of command, but he will need to improve the pitch in the professional ranks.

In 2024, Arnold had an 11-4 record with an outstanding 2.98 ERA and 159 strikeouts. He ranked top five in the ACC in strikeouts, innings pitched (105.2), ERA, and batting average against (.224). Left-handed pitching is always highly sought after, making the Seminoles starter a likely pick at the top of the 2025 MLB Draft.

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