It's that time of year to determine what team will get the No. 1 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft and the order for picks 1-6. The MLB Draft Lottery was held December 10, where 16 of the 18 teams that missed out on the postseason got put into a drawing, and their record determined the chance of getting the top pick.
Last year, the Cleveland Guardians had 2% odds and won the first pick, selecting second baseman Travis Bazzana out of Oregon State. Below were the odds for the first pick in this year's lottery:
May the odds be ever in these teams’ favor.
— MLB (@MLB) December 10, 2024
The MLB Draft Lottery is tonight at 5:30 PM ET on @MLBNetwork. pic.twitter.com/Y029nY0lnI
Why were the White Sox and Athletics not included?
The White Sox and Athletics were ineligible to receive a lottery pick this year, and the earliest they were allowed to be in the draft order is the No. 10 and No. 11 picks (which is where they ended up).
The Athletics received a lottery pick for the 2023 and 2024 drafts. They cannot receive a lottery pick three years in a row because they are a revenue sharing recipient (a percentage of each team's local revenue is put in a pool and distributed to all 30 teams to help smaller market teams compete with larger ones). Recipient teams cannot receive lottery picks in three consecutive years, per MLB Draft rules.
The White Sox received a lottery pick in the 2024 draft and are considered a "payor club" because they put more into the revenue-sharing system than they receive. Therefore, they are ineligible to receive a lottery pick in the 2025 draft, as payors cannot pick in the lottery two years in a row.
The Official 2025 MLB Draft
Like the 2024 MLB Draft Lottery, the favorites for the top pick did not win. The Washington Nationals were the lucky winners. They had the fourth best odds at 10.2 percent, so it is not as big a shock as the Guardians' climb from two percent odds.
Below is the official draft order for the 2025 MLB Draft:
With the #Nationals winning the 2025 #MLB Draft Lottery, this is what the draft order will look like.
— Batters Box (@BattersBoxNews) December 11, 2024
Who do you think goes # 1 overall? pic.twitter.com/0eiuJDbbUG
The lottery only affects the first round; the rest of the draft will be ordered from lowest winning percentage to best.
Who are the top choices for the Nationals to select with the first pick?
1. Ethan Holliday (Shortstop/Third base, Stillwater High School, Oklahoma)
The MLB Draft lottery is tonight.
— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) December 10, 2024
Shortstop Ethan Holliday—son of Matt Holliday, brother of Jackson Holliday—is the potential No. 1 overall pick next year.
Teams with the highest odds of getting the No. 1 pick:
Colorado Rockies (22.45%)… pic.twitter.com/uOPJK1ck8v
Ethan is the son of former Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday and the younger brother of Jackson Holliday, the 2022 No.1 pick of the Baltimore Orioles. If Ethan goes No. 1, it would be the first time siblings have been both No. 1 picks. The closest to do this was B.J. and Justin Upton, who went No.2 and No.1 in their respective drafts.
Ethan is taller than the average MLB shortstop at 6'4", so he may move to third base in his professional career. Prospects Live's scouting report claims: "Ethan is already more physical and displaying louder tools than Jackson did at this stage." He weighs 210 pounds, so he is a powerful hitter, but adding more muscle as he matures will improve his power potential, which he is already starting to show.
If Ethan decides to pass on the draft, he has already committed to nearby Oklahoma State, although passing on being the No. 1 draft pick for the Nationals would be a tough decision.
2. Jace LaViolette (Outfielder, Texas A&M)
My personal 1:1 right now for this year's draft is OF Jace LaViolette (@AggieBaseball). Following a fantastic Freshman season in which he hit .287/.414/.632 with 10 2B, 21 HR and 63 RBIs, LaViolette last spring slashed .305/.449/.726 with 16 2B, 29 HR and 78 RBIs.
— Peter Flaherty III (@PeterGFlaherty) October 14, 2024
6'6",… pic.twitter.com/mAKAZlJSSk
Jace LaViolette is a junior outfielder for the Texas A&M Aggies and is the top college prospect going into the 2025 season. He is a towering 6'6" and weighs 230 pounds. He possesses the tools to deliver the power and speed MLB team salivate over in the outfield.
In two seasons at Texas A&M, Jace has a batting average of .297 with 50 HRs and 141 RBIs. He has also drawn 112 walks and 25 stolen bases. His advanced plate approach speaks to his well-rounded profile, and he became the first player in Texas A&M history to have back-to-back 20+ home run seasons.
3. Jamie Arnold (Left-handed pitcher, Florida State)
Jamie Arnold is such a fun, fun arm.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 27, 2024
Struck out nine across five innings last night, racking up 15 whiffs. FB command was iffy at times, sitting 90-94 with a ton of arm-side run from a low release. Mid-80s SL was the best pitch, tons of bite and sweep. Flashed CH. Top 2025 arm. pic.twitter.com/8lsQ4phzuy
Jamie Arnold is a junior left-handed pitcher for the Florida State Seminoles and is listed at 6'1" and 188 pounds. According to Prospects Live, Arnold throws a 94-95 mph sinker, a slider in the mid-80s, and a raw changeup. That last offering is one he does not throw often because of a lack of command, but he will need to improve the pitch in the professional ranks.
In 2024, Arnold had an 11-4 record with an outstanding 2.98 ERA and 159 strikeouts. He ranked top five in the ACC in strikeouts, innings pitched (105.2), ERA, and batting average against (.224). Left-handed pitching is always highly sought after, making the Seminoles starter a likely pick at the top of the 2025 MLB Draft.