Recap: How the front office rating works
This is one in a series of assessments of the performances of front offices for the 2024 season. Each front office is given a score based on the total Wins Above Average of the players they either traded for, signed via free agency or extension, or promoted from their farm system, since the conclusion of the 2023 postseason.
A front office’s score also includes the total Wins Above Average of players traded away or lost to free agency since the end of the 2023 postseason. The front offices are being presented in order of their total value from No. 30 (worst) all the way to No. 1 (best).
These ratings do not necessarily reflect the final standings. Front offices are measured based only on the talent they acquired or lost during the past 12 months. Players on multi-year contracts, or already under team control, don’t count toward this rating.
18. St. Louis Cardinals, John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations; Mike Girsch, general manager, 0.0
Mozeliak and Girsch have felt increasing criticism in Cardinal Nation over their somnolent operation of the franchise front office. Their relative inactivity in 2024 continued a recent trend.
The data tells the story. Since the conclusion of the 2023 postseason, moves made by the Cardinals front office impacted just 37 major leaguers, equaling the second-least aggressive level of activity of any of the 30 big league teams.
That’s striking since Mozeliak and Girsch were dealing from a weak hand — their 2023 cast finished in last place in the NL Central. They largely chose to ride it out, in part because they had no choice. Nolan Arenado is under contract through 2026, Willson Contreras through 2027 and Paul Goldschmidt through 2024 (now with the Yankees). That was the heart of the projected Cardinal lineup entering 2024.
The result: an 83-79 record and non-competitive tie for second place in the NL Central, ten games behind the champion Milwaukee Brewers.
Most of the Mozeliak-Girsch offseason strategy involved remaking the team’s rotation. To that end, they signed free agents Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Sonny Gray. They went one-for-three.
Gray was 13-9 in 28 starts, producing a 3.84 ERA (3.12 FIP) in 166 1/3 innings. But Gibson and Lynn were average at best in 53 starts, and the sum total of that trio’s impact on Cardinal fortunes was -0.8 WAA.
Five most impactful Mozeliak-Girsch moves
Transaction | Net Impact (Wins Above Average) |
|---|---|
Lost pitcher Dakota Hudson to free agency | +1.6 |
Granted free agency to Andrew Knizner | +1.2 |
Lost pitcher Jake Woodford to free agency | +1.1 |
Traded outfielder Tyler O'Neill to Boston | -1.1 |
Promoted rookie Victor Scott | -1.0 |
It is a sign of the caution enveloping the Cardinal's operation that four of the franchise’s five most impactful moves since the end of 2023 involved players leaving, rather than coming to, the organization.
It’s also noteworthy that only five of the Cardinal front office’s moves — and none of their headline-grabbing pitching acquisitions — created a significant impact rising to the level of at least one game. In all of MLB, only Houston’s front office made fewer moves of such consequence.
Given that the team’s overall 2024 rating was a flat zero, it should come as no surprise that the statistical impact of the front office’s moves split basically down the middle: 18 were positive for Cardinal fortunes, 16 were negative, and three were neutral.
For 2024 improvement, the Cardinals vested substantial hope in a rookie class that eventually grew to ten bodies. Scott was the headliner. But in 53 games, he hit just .179 and produced a -0.5 WAA. Collectively, their rookie brigade registered -1.6 WAA.
Whatever Mozeliak and Girsch do in 2025 will be a valedictory as well as an encore. Mozeliak’s contract expires at season’s end, and the Cardinals have already announced that he will be succeeded by Chaim Bloom next October; Girsch is being reassigned.
Previous Rankings:
20. Texas Rangers, Chris Young, executive vice president and general manager, -0.4.
19. Boston Red Sox, Craig Breslow, chief baseball officer, -0.2
18. St. Louis Cardinals, John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations; Mike Girsch, general manager, 0.0
Next: 17. Tampa Bay Rays, Eric Neander, president of baseball operations, +0.1