Recap: How the front office rating works
This is one in a series of assessments of the performances of front offices for the 2024 season. Each front office is given a score based on the total Wins Above Average of the players they either traded for, signed via free agency or extension, or promoted from their farm system, since the conclusion of the 2023 postseason.
A front office’s score also includes the total Wins Above Average of players traded away or lost to free agency since the end of the 2023 postseason. The front offices are being presented in order of their total value from No. 30 (worst) all the way to No. 1 (best).
These ratings do not necessarily reflect the final standings. Front offices are measured based only on the talent they acquired or lost during the past 12 months. Players on multi-year contracts, or already under team control, don’t count toward this rating.
21. Toronto Blue Jays, Ross Atkins, executive vice president and general manager, -0.6
They didn’t know it at the time, but the Blue Jays’ 2024 outlook took a huge hit last November when the Atkins-led front office decided that prospective free agent Matt Chapman would be too expensive to keep.
Chapman signed with the San Francisco Giants and enjoyed a productive season both offensively and defensively, running up a +5.0 WAA. The Jays who won just 74 games in a disappointing campaign, could have used that kind of player.
For the most part, Atkins’ season was a case of one step forward, one step back. He made 46 moves impacting major league talent, and those 46 split down the middle: 21 positive, 21 negative and four neutral.
What Atkins failed to do was latch on to any star-level talent to replace Chapman. Statistically, his most positive acquisition was Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a December free agent signee. Before being traded at the trade deadline, Kiner-Falefa had the best four months of his career, hitting .292 while filling in almost everywhere on the diamond defensively.
The problem is that even at his best, Kiner-Falefa was no more than a useful fill-in piece. He only hit eight home runs and only drove in 43 runs, both pedestrian totals.
Five most impactful Atkins moves
Transaction | Net Impact (Wins Above Average) |
|---|---|
Lost Matt Chapman to free agency | -5.0 |
Signed free agent Isiah Kiner-Falefa | +2.3 |
Traded Santiago Espinal to Cincinnati | +1.7 |
Sold Otto Lopez to San Francisco | -1.2 |
Released Jay Jackson to free agency | +1.1 |
To replace Chapman’s offense, if not his defense, Atkins gave veteran free agent Justin Turner $13 million to DH and occasionally fill in at third. But, at 39, Turner found himself no longer up to the task; he batted an empty .256 (six homers, 31 RBIs, .722 OPS) before being jettisoned to Seattle at the trade deadline.
For the most part, Atkins leaned on a returning cast that looked fairly imposing. The every-day part of that cast — Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Ernie Clement, Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, Daulton Varsho, and Danny Jansen — somewhat did its part, combining to produce a +6.3 WAA. Certainly not great, but by no means condemnatory.
Yet even that core's production was uneven, with Bichette’s .225 average and .598 OPS being a particular disappointment.
Beyond Bichette, the core problem for Toronto was the pitching staff. The Jays rostered 13 pitchers under contract prior to the start of the 2024 season, and that staff finished 11th in the AL in both runs allowed per game and ERA. Toronto’s ERA was worst among AL East teams by a quarter of a point.
That core of 13 pitching returnees was led by Chris Bassitt, Alex Manoah, Jose Berrios, and Kevin Gausman. The net impact of the pitching staff: a -9.1 WAA. If you want to know why the Jays finished last in the AL East and won only 74 games, there you go.
Previous Rankings
23. Pittsburgh Pirates, Ben Cherington, general manager, -2.2
22. Washington Nationals, Mike Rizzo, president of baseball operations and general manager, -1.0
21. Toronto Blue Jays, Ross Atkins, executive vice president and general manager, -0.6
Next: 20. Texas Rangers, Chris Young, executive vice president and general manager, -0.3.