Recap: How the front office rating works
This is one in a series of assessments of the performances of front offices for the 2024 season. Each front office is given a score based on the total Wins Above Average of the players they either traded for, signed via free agency or extension, or promoted from their farm system, since the conclusion of the 2023 post-season.
A front office’s score also includes the total Wins Above Average of players traded away or lost to free agency since the end of the 2023 post-season. The front offices are being presented in order of their total value from No. 30 (worst) all the way to No. 1 (best).
These ratings do not necessarily reflect the final standings. Front offices are measured based only on the talent they acquired or lost during the past 12 months. Players on multi-year contracts, or already under team control, don’t count toward this rating.
25. Cleveland Guardians: Chris Antonetti, President of Baseball Operations; Michael Chernoff, General Manager, -5.6.
The Guardians won 92 games this past season, doing so despite occasional front office interference, particularly on the pitching staff.
Seeking to improve on a lackluster 76-86 2023 season, the veteran team of Antonetti and Chernoff— who have been running things in Cleveland nearly a decade—identified the starting rotation as the area most in need of support for new manager Stephen Vogt.
They were right about the problem, but wrong about the methodology in solving it.
One of the first things Antonetti and Chernoff did last offseason was allow Reynaldo Lopez to walk in free agency. Lopez, after all, had been a lightly used afterthought in Cleveland’s bullpen, making just a dozen 2023 appearances covering 11 innings.
The Atlanta Braves saw in Lopez what the Guardians’ front office failed to recognize: a front-rank starter. Lopez put together a 1.99 ERA for the Braves in 25 starts, good for +3.9 WAA.
The Guardians, who got 25 starts from only two of the 14 pitchers who took the bump to open games for them this past season, could have used Lopez’ consistency, particularly in their ALCS showdown with New York.
Having axed Lopez, the Guardians proceeded to flesh out their roster by bringing back Carlos Carrasco, a former Clevelander most recently toiling with the Mets. In 21 starts, Carrasco went 3-10 with a 5.64 ERA and -2.1 WAA.
That functional swap—Carrasco for Lopez—cost the Guardians six games by itself, according to WAA.
Five most impactful Antonetti-Chernoff moves in 2023-24
Transaction | Net Impact (Wins Above Average) |
|---|---|
Let Reynaldo Lopez hit free agency | -3.9 |
Signed free agent Carlos Carrasco | -2.1 |
Promoted Hunter Gaddis | +1.7 |
Promoted Cade Smith | +1.7 |
Promoted Tim Herrin | +1.2 |
How, then, did Cleveland manage to win 92 games and the division? It's a good question with only a partial answer.
Part of that answer lies in the fact that four of the Guardians’ most productive players in 2024—Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez and Emmanuel Clase—all were playing on contracts signed prior to the end of the 2023 season, meaning their data does not impact the 2024 Antonetti-Chernoff rating.
It's also worth considering the team’s commitment to a bullpen-first strategy. While relievers are notoriously unreliable, and Cleveland’s commitment to them bit the Guardians badly in the postseason, it worked well for the long in-season grind. Three rookie-status system arms—Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin—combined to produce 216 innings in support of Clase, all with sub-2.00 ERAs and solid WAAs.
Naturally, even dominant relievers affect wins above average less than an everyday position player or starting pitcher, as they just aren't in games long enough to truly swing outcomes in tangible ways.
The Guardians also played two games above their 90-72 Pythagorean record. Beyond that, though, there isn't a perfect explanation for the season the Guardians had. Sometimes baseball doesn’t lend itself to exact quantifiability.
For the most part, Antonetti and Chernoff played the hand they had been dealt prior to 2024. Their personnel moves only affected 42 major leaguers—a relatively modest number—and split right down the middle, half positive, half negative.
Previous Rankings
27. Chicago White Sox, Chris Getz, -10.2
26. Oakland Athletics, David Forst, -6.8
25. Cleveland Guardians, Chis Antonetti and Michael Chernoff, -5.6
Next: 24. Detroit Tigers, Scott Harris, -5.3