Fansided

Money and payrolls haven't mattered much in 2024 MLB Playoffs

By Bill Felber |
Sep 27, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Kansas City Royals outfielder Dairon Blanco (44) and third baseman Maikel Garcia (11) celebrates after clinching a wild card playoff birth after a game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Sep 27, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Kansas City Royals outfielder Dairon Blanco (44) and third baseman Maikel Garcia (11) celebrates after clinching a wild card playoff birth after a game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

During the 2024 MLB regular season, cash was king ... except on the numerous occasions when it wasn’t.

In fact, looking at the financial data, it is possible to prove virtually anything about the relationship between payroll and performance.

Are you among those who see spending vast amounts as the entire key to success? In 2024, all you had to do was point to the fact that seven of the eight highest-payroll teams qualified for post-season play.

The Mets, at $356.2 million, were No. 1 in payroll. They got into the postseason tournament by splitting a makeup doubleheader with the Atlanta Braves, eighth in payroll at $235 million.

The Dodgers, second at $330.5 million, won the NL West, while the Yankees ($303.6 million), Phillies ($246.9 million) and Astros ($242.4 million) also won their divisions.

Among the game’s biggest spenders, only the Texas Rangers (seventh in payroll at $238.6 million) failed to qualify to play a postseason game.

Did payroll matter in determining field for 2024 MLB Playoffs?

Just looking at the above paragraphs, it sure sounds like money and winning went together in 2024 like ham and eggs. But don’t jump to conclusions.

Because the fascinating part about the finances of 2024 was that the opposite was also true. Five of the 10 lowest-payroll teams also reached postseason play.

Those ranks included the Detroit Tigers (26th at $91.5 million), the Baltimore Orioles (24th at $102.9 million), the Cleveland Guardians (23rd at $106.1 million), the Milwaukee Brewers (22nd at $116.7 million) and the Kansas City Royals (21st at $122.1 million).

The teams that really struggled in 2024 were those constituting the great unwashed masses in the financial middle class. Among the 13 teams ranking between eighth and 20th in payroll in 2024, only the San Diego Padres (15th at $170.7 million) lived to play a postseason game.

Taken to a second level, the financial math provides strong evidence that, as it has been in several previous years, having money had less to do with on-field success than what one did with it. Using a formula called regression analysis, which ascertains the strength of the relationship between two independent sets of data – in this case, payroll and victories – we can calculate the factor played by wealth in winning.

That factor turns out to be an almost insignificant 11.5 percent.

The Wild Card round – producing the Tigers, Royals, Mets and Padres as advancers -- sets up the division series round as something of a financial culture war. The Royals, 21st in payroll, take on the Yankees, third in payroll, in a classic David vs. Goliath matchup. The other side of the AL bracket pits David vs. David, the 26th-ranked Tigers playing the 23rd-ranked Guardians.

That means at least one team ranked among the bottom 10 in payroll is guaranteed a spot in the League Championship Series.

The National League bracket pits the No. 1 Mets against the No. 4 Phillies in the Richie Rich series, while the No. 2 Dodgers go slumming against the No. 15 Padres.

Home / MLB Playoffs