The St. Louis Cardinals are mired in a two-year playoff drought, and they likely won't be playing October baseball in 2025, either.
Following the end of the 2024 season, owner Bill DeWitt relieved GM Mike Girch of his GM responsibilities, leading to a committee that includes the team's president of baseball operations, John Mozeliak, and his successor, Chaim Bloom. The duo is signaling their intention to undergo a soft rebuild by trading their aging veterans for young players to replenish their farm system, which MLB.com ranked 19th out of 30 in their latest rankings in mid-August.
As a result, it has been heavily reported that Nolan Arenado is likely to have a new home next spring.
The Cardinals acquired Arenado in a trade with the Colorado Rockies in February 2021, and his first two seasons in St. Louis were excellent. He hit over 30 home runs in both campaigns and knocked in over 100 RBIs while playing Gold Glove defense, and in 2022, he finished third in NL MVP voting.
However, Arenado's production sunk to career lows after that, and in 2024, his age-33 season, he was merely a league-average hitter (101 OPS+). His defensive acumen remained strong, but he didn't win a Gold Glove at third base for only the second time in his career and the second time in two years. With Arenado signed to a big-money contract and his production trending down, it might be hard for the Cardinals to find a suitor.
Nolan Arenado is open to a position change as Cardinals trade talks persist https://t.co/nlj3AlYSq9
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 26, 2024
Arenado has signaled a willingness to move to first base to help facilitate a trade, and from all accounts, his main wish is to play for a contender. Despite his openness to move positions, it seems unlikely that a team would trade for him to move him off third base, where he's been one the best fielders of all time, to a less premium position like first base, especially as his bat declines and teams traditionally reserve the cold corner for premium hitters.
A silver lining for the Cardinals is that when Arenado signed an 8-year/$260M extension with the Rockies in 2019, it was a front-loaded deal with a significant amount of deferred money. At this point, Arenado has only three years/$52M left on his contract. However, when Major League Baseball calculates the luxury tax, they use the contract's average annual value, not the salary due. Hence, his cap charge is $25.55M for the next three seasons.
What does Arenado's market look like?
Taking a Iook at teams who need a third baseman around the league paints a muddled pitcture for Arenado's trade market. In the American League, there are the New York Yankees (who might want to move Jazz Chisholm off of third base), the Boston Red Sox (who have signaled a desire to shift Rafael Devers to a different position), the Kansas City Royals, the Detroit Tigers, the Houston Astros (if Alex Bregman leaves in free agency), and the Seattle Mariners.
In the National League, there are the Philadelphia Phillies (who have made third baseman Alec Bohm available in trades), the New York Mets, and the Arizona Diamondbacks (who could move Eugenio Suarez to first base if they fail to re-sign Christian Walker). It seems unlikely that the Cardinals would want to trade Arenado within the division. If they did, the Milwaukee Brewers could be a fit, assuming St. Louis ate a big chunk of Arenado's deal.
The next consideration is which teams that need a third baseman are far enough below the luxury tax to want to acquire Arenado. The Yankees are certainly not, as they are constantly brushing up against the cap and still need to (attempt to) re-sign Juan Soto to a big-money deal.
The Phillies also figure to be near the top of the payroll chart next year, so it probably wouldn't be prudent for them to go after Arenado. As are the Mets, but because they have the wealthiest owner in the sport, they might be willing to go over the cap for Arenado, especially if they fail in their own pursuit of Juan Soto.
The Astros were third in total payroll in 2024, so they may want to avoid taking on an expensive third baseman if Bregman departs, leaving Boston, Detroit, Kansas City, Seattle, Arizona, and Milwaukee as the teams that fit both categories.
Complicating things even further: Arenado has a full no-trade clause. So, if he gets his heart set on playing somewhere specific, it would be hard for the Cardinals to engineer a trade elsewhere. In that scenario, the trade turns into a glorified salary dump.
Given his desire to play for a perennial playoff contender, there isn't a perfect fit for Arenado, but the best home is probably Boston. Without complications from the no-trade clause, Arenado is presumably worth a top-100 prospect if the Cardinals are willing to foot the bill on his salary.
It would be surprising to see him fetch anyone too exciting like Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, or Kristian Campbell, but if the Cardinals do their homework, they can get a good player like Braden Montgomery or Franklin Arias in return. With Arenado in tow, the Red Sox would have a formidable line-up and be only a few pitchers short of being a serious threat to the Yankees' American League supremacy.