One Cubs-Braves trade that could shake up the 2025 NL Rookie of the Year race

If the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs aren’t already talking to one another about possible trades this offseason, they ought to be.

The Braves have a surplus of rotation options for 2025 that only begins with returnees Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Bryce Elder, Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider.

They supplemented that Oct. 31 by completing a deal with the Angels that landed them Griffin Canning.

But the acquisition of Canning came at the cost of slugging outfielder Jorge Soler. It leaves the Braves vulnerable both in the outfield and in their lineup, especially if the team’s star, Ronald Acuna Jr., does not return to full health following an ACL tear that cost him most of 2024.

The Braves led the National League in both ERA and runs allowed per game in 2024. However, they finished a middling eighth in runs scored per game and seventh in OPS in the senior circuit. Even conceding that injuries to Acuna, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley hurt Atlanta’s production, those injuries are a part of the game and there’s no special reason to expect the Braves to be immune to them next season.

Couple that with the loss of Soler, and you have a team that shockingly needs to prioritize adding offense this offseason.

The Cubs are in almost the exactly opposite situation. With Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki all hard-wired into outfield (and/or designated hitter) spots, there appears to be no breathing space for any of the Cubs’ coterie of major-league-ready outfield prospects. That includes Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara and Alexander Canario, all three of whom have maxed out their usefulness at Triple A. Likewise, all three have been rated among the game’s top prospects in recent years.

What the Cubs need is starting pitching. They’re fine with Shota Imanaga at the top and Jameson Taillon as a No. 2. Behind them, Justin Steele, who is the team's ace when healthy, was injury-prone in 2024, Javier Assad couldn’t be relied on beyond the fourth inning, Kyle Hendricks has been allowed to roam for greener pastures in Los Angeles, and Jordan Wicks hasn’t proven his changeup is big league-worthy.

Even young prospects like Ben Brown and Cade Horton dealt with injuries and bouts of inconsistency in 2024.

The perfect swap: Caissie for Smith-Shawver

For both teams, the solution—a swap of young talent for young talent—is so obvious that it must be under discussion. The Braves should send A.J. Smith-Shawver, who is terminally stuck behind all those other rotation arms—to the Cubs for Caissie or, if the Braves prefer, Alcantara (Canario could be part of a trade package, though he wouldn't be enough to land Smith-Shawver on his own).

Smith-Shawver is a 22-year-old with big league stuff who never got the chance  to show it in 2024. Called up in late May, he got a start against the Cubs and looked superb, allowing just three hits to the 18 batters he faced and striking out four.

However, a strained oblique prevented Smith-Shawver from any follow-up on that performance, and as the Braves fought to keep up with Philadelphia and New York in the NL East, his post-recovery efforts were confined to the minors.

Only when the last-week stretch of postponements and double-headers left Atlanta with zero fresh arms to throw against San Diego in the Wild Card round did they turn again to Smith-Shawver for a one-inning start. It did not go well—he allowed three earned runs—and the team’s early 2025 depth chart does not list Smith-Shawver as a likely candidate for the major league club.

Despite that, Smith-Shawver remains the Braves' No. 2 ranked prospect and on the MLB Top 100 prospects list.

Caissie finds himself in a virtually identical situation in Chicago. He was just added to the team's 40-man roster, as the team made every effort to avoid losing him in the Rule 5 Draft at the Winter Meetings.

And trust me, the Cubs didn't want to lose Caissie in the draft. The team’s No. 2 prospect and No. 34 on MLB.com’s Prospect Ranking, he hit .278 with an .847 OPS for Triple A Iowa this past season. Granted, Triple-A isn't the majors, but the Braves don't roster a single outfielder who managed that good an OPS in 2024; the average of their returnees is about .725. Caissie's production included 19 home runs and 75 RBIs in 127 games.

1. All Returning Braves Outfielders (with 2024 OPS)

Ramon Laureano: .832 OPS

Eli White: .769

Michael Harris: .722

Ronald Acuna Jr.: .716

Jarred Kelenic: .679

Age-wise, it’s a fair swap, since both are 22 years old. Both would enter the labor pool at the league minimum. Both are viewed as surplus commodities by their current teams, but fill a need on the other team. Caissie is ranked about 60 spots higher than Smith-Shawver on prospect lists, but they're both Top 100 talents with immense upside.

Straight-up, one-for-one deals of top prospects are rare in MLB, but it's in both teams' interests for the Braves and Cubs to make this one happen.

More From Call To The Pen: