5 Marlins who have best chance to represent Miami in Baseball Hall of Fame

Another year of voting, another year where the Miami Marlins won't have a player representing them in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

That's the unfortunate result of last Tuesday's inexplicable news that Gary Sheffield was found to be unworthy of Cooperstown in his final year on the ballot. The voters failed Sheffield, Marlins fans, and any baseball fan who ever found themselves holding anything resembling a stick and imitating his incomparable batting stance. While it wasn't exactly written in stone (bronze?) that Sheffield would have worn a Marlins cap if selected, Miami will remain without a Hall of Famer to call their very own.

Of course, the Miami Marlins aren't alone in that respect. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Rays are also without a Hall of Famer. And if you started following baseball in 2005, then the Washington Nationals don't have one, either (multiple Expos are in the Hall). Some of this is due to the still relatively young age of the franchise. Sheffield's candidacy is a perfect demonstration of that reality: a player that was with the team in their inaugural season (1993) was still eligible to be voted for today in 2024. Most of it is due to a mess of their own making. Decades of penury and rebuilds have robbed Miami of having all that many shots at even getting Hall of Fame talent on the roster to begin with, let alone having Hall of Fame talent long enough to make them consider picking a teal cap when they get the call.

Currently, only five players enshrined in Cooperstown have even played a game for Miami. Of those five, only Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez did so in anything close to the prime of their career. Piazza was in Miami for a week before being traded; Rodriguez helped the team win their second championship. Prior to that, Andre Dawson and Tim Raines (two of your three Expos/Nationals) were also there, but on the very last legs of their storied careers. Trevor Hoffman began his career in Miami, only to be traded for...Sheffield himself. Obviously, Jim Leyland won a World Series with the Marlins in 1997 as their manager, and will join Tony Perez as the second enshrinee to have managed Miami. Not a Marlins cap among them, though, and that situation won't change when the greatest Marlins player ever- Miguel Cabrera- makes it in on the first ballot four years from now. At this point, he's as Detroit as Barry Sanders and Ty Cobb.

All of which begs the question, just who will be the first Baseball Hall of Famer to represent the Miami Marlins? Will it ever happen? And if so, when?

Now, the most likely answer to this question is some player that no one has ever heard of, or at the very least one that won't even play in the majors until 2027 at the earliest. However, that's not much fun, is it? Not to mention of very little comfort to Marlins fans mourning Sheffield's failed bid.

So what follows here will be a rundown of the five most likely players you have heard of, that have already played many games in a Miami Marlins uniform, that could one day go on to represent the Magic City in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Starting with...

Miami Marlins Hall of Famer No. 4 - Luis Arraez

Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez is a hitting machine, pure and simple.

Now, as to whether or not that's enough to get into the Hall of Fame...that remains to be seen. Arraez is very much a one trick pony. He does not hit for power, he's not a fast runner. He's a competent fielder, but for how long? As a slow middle infielder without a strong arm that doesn't hit for power, how long can Arraez stick in the starting lineup?

Obviously, none of that is a 2024 problem. Right now, Arraez is arguably the Miami Marlins' best offensive weapon. It's not even a 2028 problem, which is why the Marlins should waste no time extending him. As a two-time batting champion, he's one of the more unique hitters in MLB.

However, it really is just that hit tool that gives him any chance of ever making a case for Cooperstown. Which means he needs to keep doing it. Keep accumulating. A lot. For a long time. The Tony Gwynn comp was made often last season, as their career pace through their age-26 seasons was actually pretty similar. Gwynn played until he was 41, though, and was a five-time Gold Glove winner in the outfield. Granted his last two seasons did very little to aid his Hall of Fame case, but he did hit .338 as a 39-year old in 1999. Over twenty MLB seasons, he hit below .300 once.

Considering how much harder the act of hitting over .300 has gotten, Arraez wouldn't necessarily have to match Gwynn. Then again, once you adjust for the lack of elite defense, he probably has to come pretty close. That's an extremely daunting task. After all, there's a reason someone who retired 18 seasons before Arraez started playing was the only real comparison for what he was doing at the plate last year. Hitting that well, that consistently is hard. It must also be stressed that, even with last year's rule changes, hitting that well is way harder than it was when Gwynn was playing. Just to offer the simplest means of comparison, in that same aforementioned 1999 season, the average MLB batter hit .270 at the plate. In 2023? A mere .248 average. So Arraez is more of a unicorn right now, but holds that status just entering his prime. Once he loses a step at the plate, though? Today's pitching might bring regression about much more sharply.

What if he does keep going though, a perrennial .300 hitter? At least for the next ... call it, five seasons (not coincidentally, a number that would make him Hall of Fame eligible and get him to 10). Already, Arraez has two batting titles in his career. One in each league no less, a feat that is already getting his name on a sign somewhere in a certain baseball museum. What if gets a third, though? Just a third, repeating as batting champion one more time at some point during his Miami Marlins tenure?

In that event, history would suggest he has a very good chance at making it into the Hall.

Thus far in baseball history, there are twenty-nine players who have won three or more batting titles in their careers. If you assume election for Jose Altuve and Miguel Cabrera, then twenty-five of those players are Hall of Famers. That leaves just four elite hitters on the outside looking in.

The odds are even a bit better than that, though. Of those four, two are ineligible for Hall of Fame consideration. Ross Barnes of the National Association only played for nine seasons, not the required 10. The other ineligible? Pete Rose, famously banned for betting on baseball. Down to two then.

That leaves just Pete Browning and Bill Madlock as multiple time batting champs that aren't in the Hall of Fame. Browning debuted in 1882, and played mostly for teams that don't exist anymore. However, Madlock on the other hand...that's actually a fair comp. An infielder without a ton of pop that played in the modern era that wasn't great at much else beyond hitting? Sounds a lot like Arraez outside of the fact he still hit 163 HR in his career, which might be 100 more than Arraez will end up with. Madlock won four batting titles, and still isn't in.

That's a thought that should keep Marlins fans up at night, assuming of course the team extends him. All evidence so far is that one of those is not forthcoming, and there have been more trade rumors attached to his name than rumors mentioning extension talks. He's only under team control for two more seasons, which unfortunately means that he has less than two seasons left with the Marlins before he's dealt. If he's not extended...the circumstances where he enters the Hall of Fame sporting a Marlins cap involve another batting title in 2024. Oh, and also a championship parade.

Sign me up! In all seriousness though, it's not a very realistic prospect. As opposed to this next player, who you could argue has the best Hall chance (for some team) of any player on the list.

Miami Marlins Hall Of Famer No. 3- Sandy Alcantara

Why not the player on the Miami Marlins roster who just recently had one of the most dominant seasons in franchise history?

That'd be 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara, who put up a single season WAR of 7.8 en route to the award. Only Kevin Brown and Stanton sit ahead of him in club history for single-season dominance in terms of WAR, each edging Sandy out by a mere tenth of a percent. One more full season could easily be enough to put him atop the Marlins WAR leaderboard. Give him two more campaigns, and he'll likely be leading in everything but wins. Technically, Miami has him under control through 2027. Plenty of time to rack up wins and more awards. Even at this early stage of his career, you might be hard pressed to name five Marlins that are or were clearly better players.

Sadly, there are two major problems with a case for Alcantara entering the Hall of Fame as a Marlin. For one, he won't throw a single pitch in 2024 on account of Tommy John surgery. While a full recovery has become almost common place, it does sometimes take a full season after returning for that to happen. The bigger issue actually has nothing to do with the surgery, but rather the fact that the next time Alcantara throws a pitch in a Marlins uniform, he will do so as the highest paid player in Marlins history.

Basically, the only way Sandy isn't traded by the 2027 MLB Trade Deadline is if the Marlins are working on a three-peat but he's the only healthy pitcher.

Which means the most likely outcome for him is the same situation the Marlins find themselves in with Stanton. Where the player started their career in Miami, and possibly even had their best seasons here. Maybe even spent more time in a Marlins uniform than any other. Yet whether or not that is ultimately enough to make a player pick the Marlins as the team they want to be most associated with for all time all remains to be seen. It's also probably entirely dependent on how that new team performs. Alcantara is one of the most competitive players in baseball. If Sandy wins his only ring(s) with whatever team acquires him, he's going in to the Hall representing that club. But if he's a championship caliber player that never wins said championship? He's also the kind of player that would feel deeply loyal to the team that gave him his first real chance, provided things end amicably.

Alternatively, the Marlins could just maximize the heck out of their small window, and do some serious contending themselves. The threepeat crack above was a joke. Winning just one championship would likely be more than enough to get Sandy to pick the Marlins, even if the second half of his career is spent elsewhere.

In all actuality though, there's a third problem that could serve to trip up Sandy's Hall of Fame case more than any of the other points here:

Will Alcantara be seen as a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher, period?

He's not an elite strikeout artist- far from it. He's played for a lot of bad teams already, and is thus very light on pitching wins. Wins might be a terrible stat to measure a pitcher's abilities, but they do tend to come up a lot when you start talking Hall voting. Almost as much as those pesky strikeouts. Do Hall voters turn out for a pitcher with a low win total and a low strikeout rate? Sandy's best asset, his super power, so far in his career has been his endurance. All those innings, all those complete games. How much will this injury change that for him? If he isn't that guy anymore, what is he?

If he can rattle off another decade as efficient as his past three seasons, while winning another Cy Young or two? Probably still an eventual Hall of Famer, even as an elite innings eater. It all comes down to whether he returns to All-Star form after returning from surgery.

The answer to that question, as well as how much longer he stays in a Marlins uniform, will go a long way towards deciding his Hall of Fame fate. Yet he remains in his prime, has recently been discussed as one of the game's best pitchers, and has produced like a Hall of Famer for a full MLB season.

Which makes him very different from the next name on the list...

Miami Marlins Hall of Famer No. 2- Eury Perez

This next player on the list of prospective Miami Marlins Hall of Famers is all about potential.

That's really all fans know of Eury Perez at this point, Miami's flame throwing prospect that only ascended to the majors last season because of a massive rash of starting pitching injuries. He only threw 91.1 IP last season before being shutdown on account of SI-joint inflammation. That was enough to graduate him the list of the game's top prospects, but is still a very small sample size to draw any Hall of Fame conclusions from.

On the other hand, it was a brilliant sample size for a rookie. Perez posted a 3.15 ERA in his debut season. Impressive on its own, that number is inflated by a rough second half that saw him demoted for a time to manage his innings, and likely includes a couple appearances where he was pitching through the injury that ultimately ended his season. In the first half, he was looking like one of the better pitchers in baseball. For the season, he had a sub 2.00 ERA in his home ballpark. If you want a simpler demonstration of his powers, I could tell you about the time he struck out Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in the fourth game of his big league career. If you want more advanced numbers, check out the Stuff+ projections on Eno Sarris' latest fantasy rankings. That list sees Perez sitting at No. 22 overall, with better Stuff+ numbers than reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Zac Gallen, among many other splashier names. Not bad for a pitcher who won't turn 21 until the third week of the 2024 season.

The sky could well be the limit for Perez- a possibility that is the entire basis for his being placed so highly on this list.

Well that, and just how much longer the Miami Marlins have him under contract. Perez won't be a free agent until 2030, and won't even be eligible for arbitration until 2027. What if he really is the next great MLB pitcher? What if he spends at least three to four more seasons pitching like an All-Star for Miami, maybe even pulling down his own Cy Young award? If he spent all six of those remaining seasons in South Florida, he's probably the Marlins franchise leader in every major pitching category.

It's not impossible. Honestly, it's more likely than you've read so far in this article. The biggest obstacle to it happening has nothing to do with talent but, just as was the case with Alcantara, it has everything to do with Miami's probable payroll constraints. Unfortunately, the financial realities of the team probably have Perez gone by his second year of arbitration. However, if he were to be extended to the type of long-term deal that would allow the Marlins to potentially enjoy elite pitching production without having to pay market value for it...

That ship probably sailed the moment he struck out Ohtani last May. If it does still happen though, he's the best chance the Marlins have at getting someone in their organization into the Hall of Fame. Again, that's in the organization...

Miami Marlins Hall of Famer No. 1- Gary Sheffield

At the end of the day though, the Miami Marlins best case for having a player make the Hall of Fame is probably still the player that was just told no this past Tuesday.

That'd be Gary Sheffield, one of the two greatest hitters to ever wear a Marlins uniform. Of course, that statement dramatically understates his brilliance. Sheffield is arguably one of the five greatest hitters to play the game of baseball, period, in the last 30 years. The only reason any doubt may exist as to his place atop Marlins offensive history is that Miguel Cabrera played here too once upon a time, and is another player that qualifies for both those lists. Flip a coin between those two.

Obviously, there are a few significant obstacles to Sheffield entering Cooperstown. He was terrible defensively. He played for multiple teams. No reason to dive into all of that again, as it has all been brought up time and again over the last couple months as Hall of Fame resumes were parsed and rehashed on multiple platforms in multiple formats. Deficiencies brought up ad nauseam because they sounded more insightful than "once upon a time in the offseason my workout buddy handed me a tube of steroid cream."

Yes, Sheffield was mentioned in the Mitchell Report. He admitted on the record to just that, applying some cream to his knees once. No lies on the record. No failed tests. No proof that his performance ever benefited at all from the use. That's very different from cream supplier Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Roger Clemens, and your other favorite steroid users. Yet it's a difference that it would appear nearly forty percent of the BBWAA chose not to appreciate.

I'll confess to not being entirely convinced the Veteran's Committee is going to see it that way when they get their chance to right this wrong a few years from now.

That being said, they probably will. Enough of them anyway. Yet are the odds of my being right about the Veteran's Committee believing Sheffield to be if not entirely innocent, at least as innocent David Ortiz, worse than of the other scenarios mentioned here? Stanton hitting 500 HRs and returning to Miami to do so? Arraez becoming the next Tony Gwynn as a Marlin? Multiple Cy Young awards from Sandy or Eury?

It's not even close. Gary Sheffield still has one more chance, and he remains the best chance at a Miami Marlins player entering the Baseball Hall of Fame.