AL East front office grades midway through 2024 season: Did Brian Cashman do enough?
This week marks the halfway point of the 2024 season. Which MLB executives did enough to send their teams closer to contention since the conclusion of the 2023 postseason? And which came up short, dooming their rosters with a cavalcade of gaffes?
The final installment in this series focuses on the AL East.
The standard of measurement in Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by each team’s front office gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved – or worsened – the team’s status this season.
Our grading scale is straight-forward. Front offices that have improved their team by…:
+3.0 games or higher = A
+1.0 to +2.9 games = B
-0.9 to +0.9 games = C
-1.0 to -2.5 games = D
-2.6 games or worse = F
A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:
1. By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.
2. By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.
3. By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.
4. By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.
5. By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.
From best to worst, here’s how AL East front offices stack up by those five yardsticks.
2024 AL East Offseason Grades
New York Yankees: Brian Cashman, senior vice president and general manager. Grade: C.
Cashman is the undisputed dean of front office execs, having run the Yankees since 1998. At 3.1 games of value, his acquisition of Juan Soto in a trade with San Diego was also one of the most productive deals of the offseason.
The overall record, though, was less impressive than that singular deal makes it appear. Cashman’s front office has made 35 personnel moves impacting the major league roster since the conclusion of the 2023 postseason, but those moves to date have broken 13-19-3 against the Yanks.
Indisputably the most significant of those – one of only two by any front office that has moved his team’s needle by more than three games – was the Soto trade with San Diego.
Signing him long-term at season’s end is another issue entirely, but nobody in the Bronx thinks in the long term. The five players who went to San Diego in exchange -- catcher Kyle Higashioka, plus pitchers Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez, Michael King, and Jhony Brito – have all seen big league time. But their cumulative WAA to date is -0.1 WAA. And again, while they may blossom long-term, nobody in the Bronx thinks that far ahead.
Score: +0.9. Grade: C.
Baltimore Orioles: Mike Elias, executive vice president and general manager. Grade: C.
With an army of young talent, the Orioles front office put its hopes on its top prospect, Jackson Holliday, to provide the upgrade that would take this team from AL East champion to a serious post-season threat.
However, Holliday’s introduction went so badly that he was sent down after only 10 games, batting .059 with a -0.6 WAA contribution. That performance has mitigated the Elias front office’s score, although Baltimore retains enough talent to sit more than 20 games over .500 at the midway point.
Elias took a conservative approach to the offseason, making just 16 personnel moves impacting the big league roster. Holliday’s brief promotion was one of six that have thus far gone badly; six others rate positively, and four have been neutral.
The big move was the trade with Milwaukee that landed Corbin Burnes. He’s 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA in 17 starts, good enough to produce a +1.6 WAA. On the other hand, Burnes’s acquisition came at the cost of Joey Ortiz, who’s playing third base for the Brewers at a +1.4 rate. So, from a value standpoint, that deal has been a basic wash.
Far less attention-grabbing than the Burnes deal, but almost equally as productive was Elias’ decision last fall to sign free agent pitcher Albert Suarez out of Korea. Suarez, who hadn’t pitched in a major league game since 2017, has a 2.70 ERA in 16 appearances, nine of them starts, good for a +0.8 WAA. Not bad for the league minimum.
Score: +0.4. Grade: C.
Toronto Blue Jays: Ross Atkins, president and CEO. Grade: D.
Atkins has taken a roasting – somewhat unfairly – for his personnel moves of recent seasons. In 2024, he deserves whatever approbation Jays fans want to deliver.
The Blue Jays front office has thus far made 20 moves impacting the team’s big league roster, but only eight of those moves have yielded a positive value; 12 have been negative.
What follows may be about the worst thing you can say about a front office executive: Atkins’ most productive offseason move to date was signing journeyman Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
In fairness to Kiner-Falefa, he’s off to the best start of his career, with a .283 average and .734 OPS. But Kiner-Falefa has never been a power bat and isn’t in the process of becoming one. If he’s your offensive threat, you’re in trouble.
The more expensive signings – Justin Turner (-0.7), Kevin Kiermaier (-0.2) and Daniel Vogelbach (-0.7) – have all basically flopped. So have the holdovers, notably George Springer and Alex Manaoh. Those guys – whose deals were in place prior to 2024 – don’t count against Atkins’ score this year. But they are indicative of the broad-scale challenges that are holding Toronto back.
Score: -1.0. Grade: D.
Boston Red Sox: Craig Breslow, chief baseball officer. Grade: D.
In his first season running the Red Sox front office, Breslow has had some rough moments. His trade of Chris Sale to Atlanta was designed to remove a high-priced and highly problematic player from the scene. But Sale has won 10 of his 15 starts with a 2.79 ERA, effectively removing the guy who would have been Boston’s best pitcher.
The return on the Sale trade was Vaughn Grissom, whose injury-plagued first season has to date produced a .148 average and cost the Red Sox nearly a full game in the standings. That makes the net impact of that deal alone on Red Sox fortunes -2.7 games.
Overall, Breslow has made moves impacting 28 major leaguers. But while 13 of those 28 moves have worked to the Red Sox benefit, against 12 negatives (and three neutrals), the pull of that Sale-for-Grissom deal alone tugs Breslow’s rating into the meaningfully negative.
Rookie reliever Zack Kelly has a 1.75 ERA in 19 appearances. Outfielder Tyler O’Neill, acquired from St. Louis in a trade, has a +0.5 WAA value to date.
Score: -1.5. Grade: D.
Tampa Bay Rays: Erik Neander, president of baseball operations. Grade: F.
The tandem of president Erik Neander and GM Peter Bendix that had run the Rays for two seasons was broken up over the offseason when Bendix went to Miami. Now, Neander is flying solo, the first time in a decade that the Rays front office has been run by a solo boss.
So far, things have not gone well. Neander has made 31 personnel moves impacting the major league roster, but only 12 of those moves have produced a positive value to date.
Neander’s efforts have backfired pretty much across the board. Of 10 players he’s added by trade, only four have generated positive impact, the net amounting to -1.8 games. Neander signed five free agents to a net impact of -1.4 WAA. Three rookie callups have produced a -0.8 WAA score.
The deal he swung with Los Angeles cost Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot while gaining Jonny DeLuca and Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot may eventually become an ace, but the net impact of that trade to date on the Rays' fortunes is -0.8 WAA.
Score: -2.8. Grade: F.
These are the five most significant moves made by AL East teams in 2024. Values are based on Wins Above Average impact on the AL East team.
1. New York Yankees acquire Juan Soto in a trade with San Diego, +3.1
2. Toronto Blue Jays sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa, formerly of the New York Yankees, +2.0
3. Boston Red Sox trade Chris Sale to Atlanta, -1.8
4. Toronto Blue Jays lose Matt Chapman to free agency, -1.7
5. Baltimore Orioles acquire Corbin Burnes in a trade with Milwaukee, +1.6
Grading AL Central front offices at midpoint of the 2024 MLB season (calltothepen.com)