Cincinnati Reds' best-case and worst-case scenarios for 2024 season
With the possible exception of the Orioles, no team has a deeper collection of young talent than the Cincinnati Reds. The only question is how quickly that cast of future stars matures. It could happen in 2024.
Cincinnati Reds' Best-Case Scenario for 2024
If you’re the kind of fan who enjoys a good longshot wager, set aside a couple bucks on the 2024 National League Most Valuable Player, Will Benson. This guy has a big-time athlete’s body: he’s 6-5. 230 pounds, he's just 25 years old and he's developing fast.
After stealing Benson in a preseason trade with Cleveland, it took the Reds two months to figure out what they had. Once they did, he slugged .863, walked in one of every eight plate appearances, and stole 19 bases in 22 attempts. And he’s just developing.
You know all about Elly De La Cruz. Matt McLain may be better. Last season, McLain beat De La Cruz in the slash line triple crown by 55, 57 and 93 points respectively. He’s 24.
Spencer Steer hit a team-leading 23 home runs with 86 RBI. He’s 26. T.J. Friedl hit .279 with an .819 OPS; he’s 28. Christian Encarnacion-Strand batted .270 with an .805 OPS and 13 home runs in a little more than one-third of a season. He’s 24.
If the Reds pitching gives this young offense anything resembling major league quality, the Reds – especially in the available NL Central – have a chance to impose their will.
Cincinnati Reds' Worst-Case Scenario for 2024
About the Reds rotation. It’s populated by guys who could be pretty good … or not. Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, and Nick Lodolo have all shown occasional flashes, but none has put a consistent season together. Andrew Abbott came up last season and was 8-6 with a 3.87 ERA in 21 starts; that’s solid for a rookie.
Over the offseason, the Reds acquired Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas, both veterans who’ve been inconsistent. Montas, the designated Opening Day starter, is coming off arm injuries that sidelined him almost all of 2023. Lodolo is coming off a fractured arm that has delayed his spring development.
Martinez comes over from San Diego, where he had a 3.43 ERA in 63 appearances. But Martinez hasn’t been asked to carry a regular starting load in a decade, and there’s no certainty he can do it now.
The concern is what happens if this staff doesn’t reach its potential. For all his touted stuff, Greene is 7-20 with a 4.62 ERA in his first two seasons. The Reds have been waiting two years for Ashcraft to develop, and perhaps he will, but to date, he’s 12-15 with a 4.81 ERA.
The Reds' staff was 23rd in runs allowed per game last year. If that number doesn’t improve markedly, 2024 could be a frustrating season.
The offense has already taken one hit of substance. Noelvi Marte, the heralded No. 1 prospect, was handed an 80-game PED suspension during spring training. Marte, who hit .316 in late-season play, was supposed to be the starting third baseman. He’s out until July, and also out for any postseason games the Reds play.
It also needs to be noted that all that burgeoning young talent is entering its sophomore season in 2024, which raises the prospect of a collective sophomore slump. If that happens, the Reds could be very disappointing.
Most realistic scenario for 2024 Cincinnati Reds
In baseball, youthful talent is often a perilous virtue. That’s especially true when it’s mixed with questionable pitching. The 2024 Reds have both commodities in abundance.
The Marte loss is unsettling, and the absence of a proven rotation has to raise questions.
Still, forced to guess which will prevail, it’s hard to go against all that aggressive young talent. The absence of a dominant NL Central team makes Cincinnati’s prospects even more enticing.
The Reds won 82 games with virtually the same cast one season ago. A year older and wiser, it’s tantalizing to imagine the Reds improving by five to eight games, which gives them an outside shot at 90 wins…and, by extension, a division title.
It would be the franchise’s first since 2012. Young talent never comes with a guarantee, but there is realistic reason for hope.
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