Front office mid-term grades: The NL West
This week marks the halfway point of the 2024 season. That makes this an excellent time to deliver mid-term grades for the work done by each team’s front office since the conclusion of the 2023 postseason.
We begin with the NL West.
The standard of measurement here is Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because, unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by each team’s front office gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved – or worsened – the team’s status this season.
Our grading scale is straight-forward. Front offices that have improved their team by:
+3.0 games or higher = A
+1.0 to +2.9 games = B
-0.9 to +0.9 games = C
-1.0 to -2.5 games = D
-2.6 games or worse = F
A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:
1. By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.
2. By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.
3. By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.
4. By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.
5. By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.
From best to worst, here’s how NL West front offices stack up by those five yardsticks.
Los Angeles Dodgers: President Andrew Friedman, general manager Brandon Gomes.
Grade: A.
The Dodgers were, of course, the talk of the winter, landing slugger Shohei Ohtani, signing Japanese free agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto and trading for Tyler Glasnow. Those moves have all paid off. Ohtani is batting .322 with 22 home runs, Yamamoto was 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA before landing on the IL, and Glasnow has a 3.00 ERA in 15 starts.
Given the uncertainty surrounding LA’s pitching staff and the recent injury to Mookie Betts, the Dodgers’ offseason activity has probably gone a long way toward preserving LA’s status as one of the game’s first-rate World Series contenders.
Since the end of the 2023 postseason, the Friedman-Gomes front office has made 37 player moves impacting the Dodgers’ major league roster. That’s as many as any team. An impressive 21 of those moves produced positive value for the Dodgers. Only 13 hurt the team; the final seven were neutral.
The Ohtani signing thus far has netted the Dodgers +3.4 WAA, the most of any move made by any team. The Glasnow acquisition added +1.5 WAA.
Add it up and the Dodgers front office to date has the best offseason and early season record in MLB.
Overall score: +7.5. Grade: A.
San Diego Padres: A.J. Preller, president of baseball operations and general manager.
Grade: C.
Preller’s most significant personnel move was his decision to cut ties with slugging outfielder Juan Soto, who was traded to the Yankees, where he has become a superstar. In isolation, that move alone damaged Preller’s mid-term score to the tune of -3.0 WAA.
He also lost Seth Lugo to free agency. The Royals picked him up and Lugo has been the staff ace, with a 10-2 record and 2.42 ERA in 16 starts. That’s another 2.7 WAA the Padres don’t have.
So it’s saying something that Preller’s overall mid-term grade remains positive, however modestly. Since the end of the 2023 postseason, the Padres’ general manager has made 34 personnel moves impacting the Padres’ major league roster, and 17 of those moves produced positive value to the team. Only 13 netted negative impact, the final four being neutral.
The two most impactful positive moves were subtle. Preller re-signed journeyman Jurickson Profar, who has responded with a .320 average, an .898 OPS and a +1.1 WAA. Rookie Jackson Merrill was called up to play center field and is hitting .290 with above-average defensive skills and a +1.3 WAA.
Overall score: +0.3. Grade: C.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Mike Hazen, executive vice president and general manager.
Grade: D.
The D-Backs entered 2024 with high hopes for the defense of their NL championship. Those hopes were only bolstered when Hazen landed free agent starter Jordan Montgomery.
But halfway through the season, Montgomery has a 5.71 ERA and the team is playing .500 ball. Here’s the good news: in the broadly mediocre National League, that still amounts to playoff contention.
Since the end of the 2023 postseason, Hazen’s front office has taken a relatively conservative approach to roster enhancement. There have been just 25 personnel moves impacting the major league roster, of which only eight have generated positive value. Fourteen were negative, the other three neutral.
The signing of Montgomery, -1.3 WAA, is one of three of those moves impacting the team by more than 1.0 game in either direction. Hazen also signed Joc Pederson (+1.1), and promoted system product Justin Martinez, who has pitched 27 innings to a +1.1 WAA.
Overall score: -1.0. Grade: D.
San Francisco Giants: Farhan Zaidi, president of baseball operations; Pete Putila, general manager. Grade: D.
The Giants made two headline-grabbing moves during the offseason, and both have backfired.
Since the end of the 2023 postseason, Zaidi and Putila made 37 roster moves impacting the big league team. The attention-getters were the signings of Cy Young winner Blake Snell and slugger Jorge Soler.
Snell, however, is 0-3 with a 9.51 ERA in six starts and is on the injured list. Soler is healthy, but he’s hitting just .230 with nine home runs. Their mid-term WAA scores are -1.3 and -0.3 respectively.
Of those 37 moves, only 14 have generated positive value to the Giants. A full 20 have gone negative; only the White Sox and Mariners have undertaken more negative transactions.
The promotion of system product Keaton Winn has not worked out. Around two injured list consignments, Wynn has gone 3-8 with a 7.16 ERA in a dozen starts. That's a painful -1.7 WAA.
The Giants are surviving on the contributions of lesser lights like rookie Heliot Ramos. He is hitting .307 with 10 homers.
Much of the improvement around the Giants roster has been by subtraction, ditching spare parts Ross Stripling (-1.3 WAA for Oakland) and Mitch Haniger (-1.5 for Seattle).
Overall score: -2.5. Grade: D.
Colorado Rockies: Bill Schmidt, general manager. Grade: D.
Schmidt’s front office laid very low this past offseason, which, despite Colorado’s 26-50 record and last place standing in the NL West, may actually have been a good thing. On the rare occasions since the end of the 2023 postseason when Schmidt did make a personnel move, it has generally worked out poorly.
The Rockies front office has made just 19 personnel moves impacting the major league roster, but only five of those 19 worked out in Colorado’s favor. The remaining 14 all yielded negative short-term results.
So let’s begin with the good. In November, Schmidt got Cal Quantrill from Cleveland for a minor leaguer. Importing pitching to Colorado is often a fool’s errand, but Quantrill has a winning record and 3.43 ERA in 15 starts, good for +2.4 WAA.
The Rockies have brought up four rookies, none of whom has made a positive short-term impact. The most consequential, outfielder Jordan Beck, was batting .190 with a -1.0 WAA when he went on the injured list in late May.
Overall score: -1.8 WAA. Grade: D.
These are the five most significant moves made by NL West teams in 2024. Values are based on Wins Above Average impact on the NL West team.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers sign free agent Shohei Ohtani, +3.4
2. San Diego Padres trade outfielder Juan Soto to New York Yankees, -3.0
3. San Diego Padres lose Seth Lugo to free agency, -2.7.
4. Colorado Rockies acquire pitcher Cal Quantrill in a trade with Cleveland, +2.4
5. San Francisco Giants promote rookie pitcher Keaton Winn, -1.7.