Grading AL Central front offices at midpoint of the 2024 MLB season

This week marks the halfway point of the 2024 season. That makes this an excellent time to deliver mid-term grades for the work done by each team’s front office since the conclusion of the 2023 postseason.

The fourth installment in this series focuses on the AL Central.

The standard of measurement in Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by each team’s front office gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved – or worsened – the team’s status this season.

Our grading scale is straight-forward. Front offices that have improved their team by…:

 +3.0 games or higher = A

+1.0 to +2.9 games = B

-0.9 to +0.9 games = C

 -1.0 to -2.5 games = D

-2.6 games or worse = F

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1. By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2. By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3. By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.

4. By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5. By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

From best to worst, here’s how AL Central front offices stack up by those five yardsticks.

Minnesota Twins: Derek Falvey, president; Thad Levine, senior vice president and general manager. Grade: B.

The winter pluses in Minnesota generally dealt more with players the Twins traded away than those they got. 

In February they swung a trade with Miami that netted pitcher Steve Okert at a cost of utility player Nick Gordon. Okert’s been a statistical cipher; a 2-0 record and 3.52 ERA in 27 appearances. That has been worth exactly 0.0 WAA to the Twins.

The big advantage has been unloading Gordon, who, with a .226 average in 192 plate appearances, has been a -1.9 WAA liability in Miami.

Since the end of the 2023 postseason, the Twins front office has made personnel moves impacting 23 places on the major league roster, those moves breaking 11-8 with four neutral in favor of the Twins.

But almost all the additions have been at the margins. One of the most significant was Anthony DeSclafani, obtained in a January five-player deal with Seattle. But he has not pitched all season due to an elbow strain.

Score: +1.0. Grade: B.

Kansas City Royals: J. J. Picollo, general manager. Grade: C

The Royals have been one of MLB’s surprises over the first half of the season, clinging to a playoff position just one season after topping 100 losses. Yet, as unlikely as it seems, the Royals front office hasn’t done a great deal to improve the team this winter. 

Instead, most of the improvement flows from the natural growth of players already on hand, such as Bobby Witt Jr., Brady Singer, and Sal Perez.

Picollo made one move that has paid huge dividends, signing free agent pitcher Seth Lugo off the discard pile. Lugo has become the staff ace, with a 10-2 record and 2.29 ERA in 17 starts. That’s good for a +3.0 WAA.

But that’s about it for Picollo’s front office. Of 22 personnel moves impacting the free agent roster, 15 to date are working out negatively, against just five positive impacts. Rookie pitcher Angel Zerpa is No. 2 on the value list of those additions, and he’s valued at just +0.2.

Cole Ragans (+1.8) has been a reliable No. 2 to Lugo in the rotation. But Ragans was a trade deadline pickup from Texas last season, so his growth doesn’t count toward Picollo’s 2024 rating.

Score: -0.7. Grade: C.

Detroit Tigers: Scott Harris, president of baseball operations; Jeff Greenberg, general manager. Grade: F.

Among preseason prognosticators, the Tigers were viewed as one of those teams that might make a big move upward from their sub-.500 finish of last season. It hasn’t happened yet.

With a raft of young potential, including first baseman Spencer Torkelson, as well as outfielders Riley Greene and Parker Meadows, the Tigers played it conservative over the offseason. Harris and Greenberg made only 16 moves impacting the major league roster, the second fewest of any of the 30 teams.

To date, however, only five of those moves have yielded positive results. And only the signing of free agent pitcher Jack Flaherty (+1.7), with a 2.92 ERA in 14 starts, has made a notable impression.

From a position standpoint, the significant addition was rookie second baseman Colt Keith. But he’s stuck at .231 with three homers and negative defensive numbers, creating a -1.5 WAA impact on the team’s fortunes.

Score: -3.1. Grade: F.

Cleveland Guardians: Chris Antonetti, president of baseball operations; Mike Chernoff, general manager. Grade: F.

The Guardians are 25 games above .500 and featuring one of baseball’s best records. How in the heck can Antonetti and Chernoff get a failing midterm grade?

The answer, as noted in an earlier chapter, lies in what the Front Office rating system does and does not do. It does not attempt to mirror a team’s record. Rather, it attempts to assess a team’s standing relative to what it would have been, had the front office done nothing.

And the truth is that as well as the Guardians have played, they have also been the majors’ No. 1 distributor of premium talent.

Since the end of the 2023 postseason, Antonetti and Chernoff have done a very good job of bringing talent to Cleveland. Of the 17 players they’ve incorporated into the team’s big league roster, 11 have generated positive value.

But they’ve done an even better – which is to say, "poorer" – job of distributing talent elsewhere. Six members of the 2023 Guardians are today laboring for other major league teams, and their collective impact on their new franchises adds up to 5.0 games.

Only one other MLB team – the Angels at 3.1 games -- has shipped more than two games worth of talent to other franchises … and the Angels lost Shohei Ohtani.

Two players account for most of the talent hemorrhage. In November, Antonetti and Chernoff traded pitcher Cal Quantrill to Colorado for a minor leaguer. Quantrill has a winning record in 16 starts in Denver, good for 2.4 WAA, and that counts against the Guardians’ score.

They also released Reynaldo Lopez into free agency as a spare part pitcher. Lopez signed with the Braves and has a 1.57 ERA in 13 starts, good for a 2.4 WAA. That’s another 2.4 detriment to the Guardians.

There are pluses in the Guardians’ record, notably rookie utility player David Fry. His .307 average translates to +1.2 AWW. But the 23 moves made by Antonetti and Chernoff end up breaking almost evenly: 12 favorable, 11 unfavorable. And the unfavorable ones, such as the losses of Quantrill and Lopez, had greater impact.

And that’s how a first place front office gets a failing grade.

Score: -3.4. Grade: F.