Grading NL Central front offices at midway point of 2024 MLB season
This week marks the halfway point of the 2024 season. That makes this an excellent time to deliver mid-term grades for the work done by each team’s front office since the conclusion of the 2023 post-season.
This third installment looks at the NL Central.
With the exception of the 44-32 Milwaukee Brewers, the Central has been a haven for mediocrity during the season’s first half. The Cardinals, Reds, Pirates and Cubs are a collective 11 games under .500. Surprisingly, though, at least one NL Central front office scores pretty well in this interim rating.
The standard of measurement in Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by each team’s front office gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved – or worsened – the team’s status this season.
Our grading scale is straight-forward. Front offices that have improved their team by…:
+3.0 games or higher = A
+1.0 to +2.9 games = B
-0.9 to +0.9 games = C
-1.0 to -2.5 games = D
-2.6 games or worse = F
A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:
1. By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.
2. By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.
3. By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.
4. By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.
5. By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.
From best to worst, here’s how NL Central front offices stack up by those five yardsticks.
Grading the front office work of the NL Central in 2024
Chicago Cubs: Jed Hoyer, president of baseball operations; Carter Hawkins, general manager. Grade: A.
This rating will astonish Cubs partisans, who’ve suffered through the team’s 37-43 start and routine offensive/bullpen failures. In Chicago, Hoyer’s tenure is viewed as problematic at best.
So this is an appropriate time to clarify what the front office rating system does and does not do. It does NOT necessarily reflect a team’s record or its position in the standings. It also does NOT grade either the selection of a manager -- in this instance, Craig Counsell -- or his performance. It DOES assess the relative improvement, or lack of same, of a team’s roster from one season to the next.
In short, as mediocre as the Cubs have been this year, they would have been worse if the front office had done nothing. And the signing of Counsell does not count.
Despite the mood on the North Side, the Hoyer-Hawkins front office actually had a pretty good offseason. Since the end of the 2023 postseason, the Cubs front office made 24 personnel moves impacting the major league roster, 12 of which have produced positive value. Nine were negative, the other three being neutral.
Noteworthy among those decisions was the signing of free agent pitcher Shota Imanaga. He’s 7-2 with a 2.96 ERA. Michael Busch, obtained from the Dodgers in a winter trade, has an .820 OPS. Those two additions alone have netted +1.7 WAA to the team’s record.
Combine that with the value produced by Hoyer-Hawkins’ other recent moves and it adds up to +3.0 games in the standings. That’s a borderline A.
If Hoyer and Hawkins had such a good offseason, why are the Cubs so bad? The obvious answer is their under-performing core. Players under contract prior to the 2024 pre-season include closer Adbert Alzolay, starter Kyle Hendricks, recently released catcher Yan Gomes, catcher Miguel Amaya, second baseman Nico Hoerner, third baseman Christopher Morel, and high-priced shortstop Dansby Swanson. All seven have been liabilities, their collective impact measuring out to -5.1 games.
Score: +3.0, Grade: A.
Milwaukee Brewers: Matt Arnold, senior vice president and general manager. Grade: C
When the Brewers traded their pitching ace, Corbin Burnes, to Baltimore over the winter, it looked like an early surrender. Not so fast. Considering that Arnold’s goal in that deal was long-term gain, the fact that the trade to date has only cost Milwaukee -0.5 WAA short-term makes it arguably something close to a win already.
Arnold’s front office has made 36 personnel moves to date – one of the highest totals in MLB – of which 15 have been positive, 17 negative and four neutral. Two stand out.
The Baltimore deal cost them Burnes and his +1.4 WAA, but brought back third baseman Joey Ortiz, a .269 hitter with an.869 OPS and a +1.5 WAA. The inclusion of reliever D.L. Hall, -0.6, drags down the net short-term difference, but as noted above, this deal was not done for short-term improvement.
The other noteworthy addition was reliever Bryan Hudson, obtained from the Dodgers in a sleeper of a January deal that cost Milwaukee a minor leaguer. Hudson is 4-0 with a 0.86 ERA in 27 appearances, and that’s good for +1.5 WAA.
Milwaukee’s two most notable additions have both produced negligible short-term value. Free agent signee Rhys Hoskins has been a disappointment, sporting a .222 average and .726 OPS while sharing time at first base. Mark that down for -0.7 WAA.
Meanwhile, rookie phenom Jackson Chourio is gaining on average following a rocky start. Chourio is hitting .230 with a .637 OPS, good for -0.2 WAA.
Score: +0.9. Grade: C.
St. Louis Cardinals: John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations; Mike Girsch, general manager. Grade: C
The Mozeliak-Girsch front office was about as passive over the 2023-24 preseason as you’ll ever see an MLB front office act. Since the conclusion of the 2023 postseason, the Cardinals have made only 18 personnel moves impacting the major league roster. To date, those moves have broken evenly: eight positive, eight negative, two neutral.
The Mozeliak-Girsch signature activity was the signing of a trio of free agent starters. As a group, Kyle Gibson (+0.6), Sonny Gray (+1.1) and Lance Lynn (-0.8), have generated a laudable +0.9 WAA.
The Cardinals entered 2024 counting on system outfield product Victor Scott for an infusion. Scott may one day blossom, but he hit .085 in 65 plate appearances before being returned to Triple-A. He’s one of four Cardinal rookies who have jointly contributed -1.2 games to the team’s cause.
Score: +0.3. Grade: C
Pittsburgh Pirates: Ben Cherington, executive vice president and general manager. Grade: C
The Pirates have gotten headlines and good mileage out of a pair of system products. Rookie pitchers Paul Skenes (+1.5) and Jared Jones (+0.8) are a combined 9-6 in 23 starts with a collective 3.14 ERA. Skenes (4-0, 2.14) is a plausible Rookie of the Year candidate if he keeps it up.
Combine them with veteran Mitch Keller (+1.5), who Cherington re-upped through 2028 prior to the season, and you have three-fifths of a potentially dominant rotation.
Cherington’s problem has been elsewhere. He has tried to supplement the Pirate roster with the addition of veterans of the stripe of Aroldis Chapman, Yasmani Grandal, Andrew McCutchen and Rowdy Tellez.
But Keller notwithstanding, the cumulative impact of Cherington’s 11 free agent signings/re-ups stands at -1.9 games. Beyond that he brought in five players via trade, none of whom has played a consequential role. Their cumulative impact amounts to -0.5 games.
Since the end of the 2023 postseason, Cherington has made 25 roster moves impacting the major league roster, only seven of which have brought positive results. But one of those seven is Skenes’ promotion, and thus far that move alone covers a lot of small missteps. Skenes is both the reason why the Pirates remain on the fringes of Wild Card contention and also the reason why Cherington’s stats to date look borderline tolerable.
Score: -0.8. Grade: C.
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Krall, president of baseball operations; Brad Meador, senior vice president and general manager. Grade: D.
The Reds saw their roster so re-populated by emerging talent in 2023 that this season has amounted to a maturation time. For that very logical reason, the Krall-Meador front office had a relatively inactive offseason.
Since the end of the 2023 postseason, Krall and Meador made a modest 19 personnel moves impacting the major league roster. Only six of those moves produced a positive short-term result; 11 turned negative and two were neutral.
Statistically, the most meaningful move involved the December re-signing of journeyman pitcher Buck Farmer. A veteran of six big-league seasons, but mostly a Reds farmhand since 2022, Farmer has made 27 relief appearances with a 2.60 ERA, good for +0.9 WAA.
But more than perhaps any other team, the 2024 Reds look like the 2023 Reds. Only two players – reserves Santiago Espinal and Bubba Thompson – came over via trade, and the vibrant farm system has produced only backups Jacob Hurtubise, Teejay Antone and Carson Spiers. Spiers, with a 3.45 ERA in seven appearances, has been the most productive. Antone is out for the year.
The Krall-Meador team is, however, in the process of accumulating one curious black mark on its record. Since the end of the 2023 postseason, the Reds front office has released or lost to free agency a half dozen players who have caught on with different clubs. Five of those six – Harrison Bader, Curt Casali, Kyle Herget, Derek Law and Ben Lively - are in the process of producing positive value for their new teams.
Giving away talent is generally viewed as a bad idea.
Score, -1.5 WAA. Grade, D.
These are the five most significant moves made by NL Central teams in 2024. Values are based on Wins Above Average impact on the NL Central team.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates promote rookie pitcher Paul Skenes, +1.5
2. Milwaukee Brewers acquire Bryan Hudson in a trade with Los Angeles Dodgers. +1.5
3. Milwaukee Brewers acquire Joey Ortiz in a trade with Baltimore. +1.5
4. Milwaukee Brewers trade pitcher Corbin Burnes to Baltimore, -1.4
5. Pittsburgh Pirates extend pitcher Mitch Keller. +1.4
A mid-term assessment of front office work: The NL West (calltothepen.com)