Miami Marlins: 3 MLB playoff stories to watch that will shape 2024

For at least a few days, and hopefully a few weeks, all that matters is the present for the Miami Marlins.

Back in the playoffs for the first time in a real season since 2003, it's a moment that deserves to be savored by fans of this much maligned Marlins franchise. Yes, 2020 was fun, and does technically count. Still, this playoff berth comes entirely asterisk-free, feeling eminently earned. Everyone remotely connected to organization, from employee to player to fan, would be wise to take a moment to appreciate how truly special this is.

Alright, that's enough of that. On to 2024.

It obviously goes without saying that how these playoffs play out will speak volumes about how the Marlins organization opts to approach the coming offseason. Strong postseason performances will either cement regular season perceptions of the stars that got them to this point or, in some cases, burnish the records of players who underperformed. A deep playoff run could potentially unlock previously unseen levels of spending. More than likely though, it will be a somewhat early exit for Miami, but one that does nothing to dampen owner Bruce Sherman's enthusiasm for returning to the playoffs next season and building on this exciting core Kim Ng and Skip Schumaker have put together.

However, doing that will be easier said than done.

It's a pretty thin free agent market across the board, certainly compared to the last few years and particularly so at catcher and short- the positions where the Marlins are weakest. Unicorn Shohei Ohtani is available, yes, but he's not coming to Miami unless he's the world's biggest Lionel Messi fan and Sherman gives him a massive ownership stake. The market drops off significantly after him, and while any of the top names would make the Marlins better, it needs to be said again that none of those names clearly fill a need on the 26-man roster. That matters for a team with limited financial and prospect resources. Then again, this is all referring to the 26-man roster that will be taking the field this week. Once the offseason starts, that number of holes could actually double. 

That being the case, it is going to take a creative mix of both more payroll and trades to put the 2024 Miami Marlins together if their goal is to win more games than the 2023 model.

Fortunately, the answers to how they will accomplish that will start to become clear as soon as this week. Starting with...

Will Josh Bell and Jorge Soler boost their market value? 

First up, two of the biggest reasons the Miami Marlins are in these playoffs to begin with: Josh Bell and Jorge Soler.

Unfortunately for the Marlins, the only thing more unlikely than a deep playoff run in 2023 might be finding themselves in a position to keep both of these players in 2024. Technically, both of them are under contract for next season. However, both of them have the ability to opt out. Should they do so, and not return on a new deal, they would be leaving two massive holes in a lineup that had already struggled at times to put runs on the board.

In Soler's case, opting out seems all but certain, and has been viewed in that way since May. This 2023 campaign was the second best season of his career when it comes to the traditional counting stats, though curiously his first time earning All-Star honors. However, if you're a fan of WPA, this was Soler's best year by far. He did miss significant time due to injury in the second half though, which could help to somewhat lower his cost. Additionally, after reports early in the year that suggested he had serious misgivings about the playing surface at loanDepot Park, and consequently returning to the Marlins in 2024, that position has seemingly softened as the season has gone on. Still, he would be a top five hitter in free agency if he decides to test the market. At the least.

As for Bell, it's been a rollercoaster ride projecting what he'll do. After a scorching start following his arrival at the trade deadline from Cleveland, one that saw him approach franchise record territory for home runs in the first few weeks of a Marlins career, his opting in for next year quickly went from being viewed as expected to extremely unlikely. But then the adrenaline wore off, and he spent four weeks being much closer to his career norm- a useful but average player. He's started coming around again of late though, and did just deliver the game sealing hit in Miami's postseason clinching victory Saturday. As for how he feels about Miami in general, he's been very candid about how much he loves it here. Sadly, he's a Scott Boras client...so there's that.

All that remains to see is what kind of postseason show they put on. Soler, as the savvy baseball fan knows, has been a monster in October. He boasts a .292/.418/.692 line across 79 plate appearances, along with six homers, including that fabled moonshot for the Braves in the 2021 World Series. If he taps into some of that postseason magic again in 2023, even over just two or three games, he'll very likely be in line for one of the biggest hitter contracts of the offseason. Bell seems much more likely to return to Miami, but the only question is whether it's on a one year deal or a costly by Marlins standards extension. His playoff production could well be the tiebreaker.

Just something to keep in mind while watching these games. Provided you can take your eyes off the Marlins player standing in the spotlight...

Will Edward Cabrera get a chance to shine ... and play his way off the roster?

Even after a pair of trades and multiple injuries, the strength of the Miami Marlins organization remains their starting pitching.

Staff ace Sandy Alcantara had a down year...and still led MLB in complete games. Dazzling rookie Eury Perez flashed plenty of potential in his debut campaign, enough to make evaluators wonder if Miami might have a new staff ace on their hands before too long. Jesus Luzardo set a career high in reaching 200 Ks, and firmly established himself as a top of the rotation caliber starter himself.

Of course, Alcantara and Perez aren't available this postseason. Luzardo will get the ball for Game 1, and then hand things off to Braxton Garrett- arguably the MVP of the 2023 Marlins. After that? If necessary, Miami will be forced to turn to Edward Cabrera- one of the most polarizing pitchers in the majors.

One minute, he's piling up strikeouts in bunches. The next, he's walking everyone in sight. It's been a topsy-turvy, ying-yang season for Cabrera in 2023, and it's a theme that has followed him throughout his career. The most pressing problem for Kim Ng and the Marlins front office is that while he's still capable of turning in an outing every third start or so that reminds you why he was an elite prospect as recently as late 2021, Cabrera is also out of options. It's elite stuff, but far too inconsistent control.

Which brings us to a potential Game 3 of Miami's Wild Card series with Philadelphia, and the chance to make 29 other GMs start salivating. With talents like Max Meyer, Dax Fulton, and Trevor Rogers waiting in the wings, the Marlins are going to have some hard choices when it comes to filling out the 2024 starting rotation. And even with the lessons learned from this year's rash of injuries, and even with the prospect of potentially losing Alcantara to Tommy John surgery, Miami is probably going to be forced to deal away one more pitcher to help bolster the offense.

What Cabrera, and perhaps even Garrett, show over these playoffs will play a huge role in determining how those decisions play out.

So first and foremost, enjoy every minute of these playoffs Marlins fans. Yet that doesn't mean you shouldn't keep one eye on the future as well.