Mid-term front office grades: Astros, Rangers, and the AL West mess

This week marks the halfway point of the 2024 season. That makes this an excellent time to deliver mid-term grades for the work done by each team’s front office since the conclusion of the 2023 postseason.

The second installment of this mid-season series looks at AL West front offices.

The standard of measurement in Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by each team’s front office gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved – or worsened – the team’s status this season.

Our grading scale is straight-forward. Front offices that have improved their team by…:

 +3.0 games or higher = A

+1.0 to +2.9 games = B

-0.9 to +0.9 games = C

 -1.0 to -2.5 games = D

-2.6 games or worse = F

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1. By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2. By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3. By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.

4. By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5. By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

From best to worst, here’s how AL West front offices stack up by those five yardsticks.

Grading the front offices of the AL West so far in 2024

Houston Astros: Dana Brown, general manager. Grade: B.

The Astros have foundered through much of the first half of the season, so Brown’s rating requires some clarification. Most of the roster-improving deeds he has taken on since the end of the 2023 postseason involved jettisoning under-performing players rather than acquiring productive ones, so his grade looks better than it probably ought to be.

The most significant jettison involved the departure of catcher Martin Maldonado via free agency. Maldonado signed with the White Sox, where he has continued to do what he did in Houston: not hit. His loss improves Brown’s overall score by 2.3 WAA, and that’s the difference between a B and a C interim grade.

Otherwise, things have been pretty neutral in Houston. The Astros have made 22 personnel moves impacting the major league roster, 10 of which netted positive results. Another eight were negative, four neutral.

The most impactful has turned out to be a disappointing rookie pitcher. Since being pressed into emergency rotation duty, Spencer Arrighetti is 3-6 with a 6.36 ERA in 13 starts. That works out to a -1.3 WAA.

Aside from Arrighetti and Tayler Scott, a +0.8 free agent signee, none of the arrivals has made much of an impact in either direction. Essentially, the Astros front office stood still. And that means Brown can thank Maldonado’s incompetence for his division-leading grade.

Overall score: +2.0. Grade: B.  

Texas Rangers: Chris Young, executive vice president and general manager. Grade: C

Give Chris Young this much: He didn’t sit still on his world championship. Since the triumphal end to the 2023 postseason, the Rangers' front office has made 30 personnel moves impacting the team’s big league fortunes.

Unfortunately, those moves have produced minimal cumulative impact, only 15 of them being positive against 13 negative and two neutral.

The loss to free agency of star pitcher Jordan Montgomery has turned out to be a plus, since Montgomery (-1.4 WAA) has bombed in Arizona. The problem has been his replacements.

Without Montgomery, Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer, Young has counted on bolstering the pitching staff from within. He called up Jack Leiter and Grant Anderson, who between them have made 19 appearances, most of them sub-standard. Leiter has a 16.39 ERA in three starts, Anderson a 9.53 ERA in 16 relief showings. Their cumulative impact amounts to -2.2 games.

The brutal truth is that the Texas rookie class as a group has been awful. Young has called on 11 first-year players, including touted outfielders Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford, to a cumulative impact of -3.9 games. That’s easily the least productive rookie class of any 2024 team.

Overall score: -0.3. Grade: C.

Oakland Athletics: David Forst, general manager. Grade: D.

For the Oakland front office, the offseason was a success when they secured Sacramento as a temporary home while waiting for their new stadium in Las Vegas to be built. That the team is actually playing better than anticipated is a bonus.

On the field, the key word – almost the only word – has been growth. Or at least an effort toward slow growth.  Since the end of the 2023 postseason, Forst’s front office has made 29 personnel moves impacting the major league roster. A dozen of those 29 moves produced positive impact, against 11 negatives and six neutrals.

Superficially that sounds like a successful few months. The problem is that almost all the positive play has been fractional. Of 14 players brought in by Forst by trade, signing or promotion, only touted rookie reliever Mason Miller (+0.9) has generated value in excess of half a game.

The one addition of note, starter Ross Stripling, has bombed. He’s 1-9 with a 5.82 ERA in 11 starts, good for a -1.3 impact.

Overall score: -1.6. Grade: D.

Seattle Mariners: Jerry Dipoto president, Justin Hollander executive vice president and general manager. Grade: F.

Given Seattle’s standing atop the AL West, its failing grade for post-2023 work must come as a surprise. But the data is clear: The Mariners are winning for reasons having little to do with moves made by the front office since the end of the 2023 postseason.

Luck may be one of those factors. The M’s were 45-36 entering play Tuesday, but that was three games better than their 42-39 Pythagorean projection.

But the personnel numbers are also problematic. The Dipoto-Hollander front office has made 33 personnel moves impacting the major league roster, of which a fairly stunning 21 have had negative impact as against just seven positive scores.

The only new contributor of note is outfielder Luke Raley, obtained from Tampa Bay in a January swap. He’s hitting .254 with a .741 OPS, good for a +0.5 WAA.

Dipoto and Hollander completed what at the time looked like one big trade, sending Robbie Ray to San Francisco in exchange for Anthony DeSclafani and Mitch Haniger. But neither Ray nor DeSclafani has pitched for his new team, and Haniger (-1.3) had been bad.

The Mariners are fortunate to have entered 2024 with a solid core including starters Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Raleigh, closer Anthony Muñoz, middle infielder Dylan Moore, third baseman Josh Rojas, and outfielder Julio Rodriguez.

All have made positive contributions, but all were also previously under contract before the workup to the 2024 season.

In short, the Mariners are winning despite the front office’s 2024 efforts, not due to them.

Score: -6.2. Grade: F.