MLB prediction: 5 longshots who could contend in 2024

The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks both accomplished the seemingly unthinkable this postseason, going from 100 losses just two seasons ago to the World Series. The Rangers, of course, took that improvement all the way to the Commissioner’s Trophy.

The levels of short-term improvement required to accomplish that feat (30 games in two seasons for the Rangers, 32 for the Diamondbacks) are rare in baseball history. Only four times prior to this season has a team improved by 30 games over a short two seasons to win the World Series. The Cubs did it in 2016, but before that you have to reach back to the 1969 Mets, the 1927 Yankees and the 1910 Athletics.

It could. However happen again, and soon. Several teams approach the winter of 2023-24 apparently poised to follow in the Rangers’ lead and make a run at a large-scale turnaround to a World Series title.

Here’s a look at five MLB teams with at least the potential to make that kind of two-season leap.

5. Miami Marlins. The Marlins must compete in the NL East, meaning they have to get past the Braves, Phillies and Mets to have a serious chance at contention.

But coming off only a 69-win season in 2022, they won 84 games this year, put the Mets in their rear-view mirror and qualified for the post-season as the NL’s second wild card. If Miami can add a six or seven-game improvement in 2024 atop their 15-game improvement of this just-concluded season, they could emerge as a legit post-season threat.

The big hurdle, obviously, is the absence of Sandy Alcantara, who underwent Tommy John surgery and will be sidelined for all of 2024. Here’s the upside: When he did pitch in 2023, Alcantara was average at best (7-12, 4.14 in 185 innings) and the Marlins still did what they did. Alcantara’s absence makes the hill higher, but not impossibly high.

A tougher issue may be the lack of leadership. The Marlins front office enters the 2023-24 offseason directionless, having lost GM Kim Ng in an apparent control dispute with ownership. For the immediate future, then, that leaves nobody in position of authority to set a leadership course.

That absence is complicated by the loss to free agency of slugger Jorge Soler, who hits the market coming off a 36-homer season.

What do the Marlins have? They have batting champ Luis Arraez, and they have an outfield of Bryan DeLaCruz, Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez populated with young star potential.

Eury Perez, a 20-year-old signed out of the Dominican Republic, made 19 starts as a rookie with a 3.15 ERA and showed star potential. Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera are all mid-20s established starters.

4. Washington Nationals. It would take some doing for the Nats to seriously contend in 2024. Not only did they finish last in the NL East this past season, but they won only 71 games.

Still, the signs of improvement were plainly visible. Those 71 victories represented 16 more than the 55 victories of 2022. Do that again and Washington is at 87 wins and in the midst of post-season contention.

More importantly, the Nats are successfully nurturing young talent that could be ready to explode. Catcher Keibert Ruiz (24), shortstop C.J. Abrams (22), outfielders Stone Garrett and Lane Thomas, and pitchers Josiah Gray  (25) and Mackenzie Gore (24) all fit that description.

The Nats would basically need all those budding stars to mature, and then probably add one or two useful assets over the winter. But the Lerner family, which owns the team, has the cash and GM Mike Rizzo has the experience to identify those assets.

In combination, those facts make Washington an attractive sleeper bet in what are likely to be highly favorable winter book odds.

3. Detroit Tigers. The Tigers won just 66 games two seasons ago, and just 78 in 2023.They haven’t had a winning season since 2016. That’s the bad news.

The good news is that the Tigers have used the high draft picks acquired as a result of all those bad finishes wisely. Spencer Torkelson, the team’s No.1 pick from 2020, hasn’t made his mark yet, but the potential clearly exists. Riley Greene, the top pick of 2019, established himself as a solid every-day outfielder in 2023.

The Tigers are also out from under the albatross of a $30 million long-term contract that had bound them to Miguel Cabrera’s declining production, freeing up those funds to be used elsewhere.

What isn’t clear is whether second-year GM Scott Harris is the guy to lead the rebuild. That makes this winter a huge test for Harris.

But the Tigers improved by 12 games from 2022 to 2023, climbing all the way to a runner-up position in the readily available AL Central. That still left them nine games behind the division champion Twins, but nobody thinks the Twins are inviolate next year.

That means that depending on what transpires this winter, the Tigers could be a team to watch out for.

2. Kansas City Royals. The emergence of the Royals as a 2024 contender would rank among the game’s all-time surprises. Not only did Kansas City win just 65 games in 2022, but the Royals regressed in 2023, finishing a 56-106.

What on earth could possibly fuel speculation about a rise to contender status.

Three or four things, actually.

The first is Bobby Witt Jr. In 2023, his second season, Witt became an All-Star, producing a highly satisfactory .813 OPS.

The second is Cole Ragans, obtained from Texas in a mid-season trade. Quickly establishing himself as the staff ace, Ragans went 5-2 in a dozen starts with a 2.64 ERA. He beat the Mets, Cubs and Astros, and only twice allowed more than three earned runs in a start.

The third is improvement. Granted, the Royals were awful in 2023, but they stepped up as the season progressed. Relying almost exclusively on young talent, the Royals had a winning (15-12) September-October, outscoring opponents by nine runs after Aug. 31.

What the Royals need in 2024 is for their young major leaguers to step up and follow Witt. That includes guys of the stripe of M.J. Melendez, Brady Singer, Nick Pratto, Michael Massey and Maikel Garcia.  As a group, those second and third-year system talents regressed in 2023.

They need to turn potential into performance.