NL East front office grades midway through 2024: Braves, Mets thriving
This week marks the halfway point of the 2024 season. That makes this an excellent time to deliver mid-term grades for the work done by each team’s front office since the conclusion of the 2023 postseason.
The fifth installment in this series focuses on the NL East.
The standard of measurement in Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by each team’s front office gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved – or worsened – the team’s status this season.
Our grading scale is straight-forward. Front offices that have improved their team by…:
+3.0 games or higher = A
+1.0 to +2.9 games = B
-0.9 to +0.9 games = C
-1.0 to -2.5 games = D
-2.6 games or worse = F
A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:
1. By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.
2. By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.
3. By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.
4. By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.
5. By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.
From best to worst, here’s how NL East front offices stack up by those five yardsticks.
2024 NL East front office midterm grades
Atlanta Braves: Alex Anthopoulos, president of baseball operations and general manager. Grade: A.
With their signings of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers certainly won the winter free agent sweepstakes. So far, though, Anthopoulos is running a credible second.
Over the winter, Anthopoulos signed or re-signed 11 experienced players who have impacted the Braves’ major league roster, and those 11 have compiled a cumulative +2.1 WAA impact. Notable among those signings was Reynaldo Lopez, who had been consigned to bullpen mopup work for three teams in 2023.
Given a starting opportunity with the Braves, Lopez has responded with a 1.70 ERA in 14 games, good for +2.4 WAA.
Even better, Lopez is signed through 2027 at a cost-efficient $34 million.
Anthopoulos complemented his open market success with some nice work at the trade table. Notably he got Chris Sale away from Boston for outfielder Vaughn Grissom. Sale has a league-leading 10 wins for the Braves in 14 starts, a +1/6 WAA contribution. Grissom (-0.9 WAA) is working on his second tenure on the injured list and is hitting .148 when he does play for the Red Sox.
Overall, the Braves' front office has made 31 moves impacting the major league roster since the end of the 2023 postseason. 17 of those moves have so far generated positive impact, 11 have been negative and three have been neutral.
Score: +4.3. Grade: A.
New York Mets: David Stearns, president of baseball operations. Grade: A.
In his first season running the Mets, Stearns has done what new execs almost always do: he’s slashed the dead weight. A half-dozen 2023 Mets considered expendable were cast adrift to free agency, only to be picked up by new teams.
Those new teams are generally regretting their signings, for those six ex-Mets have a combined -3.3 WAA impact on their new teams.
To date, Stearns has made moves impacting 29 major league players, those moves breaking 15-14 in favor of the Mets.
To the extent there's a problem, it's that none of the arrivals have been consequential. Of two callups, 14 free agents and six trade acquisitions, only pitcher Adrian Houser has had an impact of as much as one game of value in either direction, and Houser’s -1.0 WAA is hardly laudable.
The most productive arrival, backup catcher Luis Torrens, is at +0.7, but that’s in just 10 games. There's no doubting Jose Iglesias' vibe impact has been tremendous. Unfortunately, that isn't what we're calculating here.
Score: +3.1. Grade: A.
Washington Nationals: Mike Rizzo, president of baseball operations and general manager. Grade: B.
The Nats are a team on the move. A year ago at this point, the Nationals were 15 games under .500 and 21 games out of first in the division. This year, they’re pushing .500 and in contention for a Wild Card spot.
Give Rizzo’s farm system a bunch of the credit. That system this year has produced Mitchell Parker, 5-3 with a 3.30 ERA in 13 starts. That’s good for a +0.9 WAA.
It’s also produced center fielder Jacob Young, whose defensive prowess and plausible offense is translating to a slightly positive WAA. Overall, the farm has netted five Nats this year with a combined 2.1 WAA impact on the team. Only the Guardians have had a better impact from their first-year callups.
Overall, Rizzo has made moves affecting 22 major league personnel, 11 of which have broken for the Nats against eight negatives.
Score: +1.9. Grade: B.
Philadelphia Phillies: Dave Dombrowski, president of baseball operations; Sam Fuld, vice president and general manager. Grade: C.
Even though the Phillies fell one game short of a repeat World Series appearance, the front office must have felt pretty secure with the team’s 2024 outlook. Since the end of the 2023 postseason, Dombrowski and Fuld have made only 11 personnel moves impacting the team’s roster, easily the fewest of any MLB front office.
Two factors make it easy to look past that inactivity. The first is that Dombrowski and Fuld finished first in the final 2023 front office rating, having improved that team by nearly 14 games. The second factor is the reality that the Phillies arguably have baseball’s best team. As this is written, no club has more wins.
From a name standpoint, the front office’s biggest move was the re-signing of rotation stalwart Aaron Nola through 2030. Nola’s 9-3, 3.39 first half justifies the signing, at least in the short term, even though that only reduces to a +0.6 WAA.
The signing of utility pitcher Spencer Turnbull (3-0, 2.66 in 17 appearances, seven of them starts) got a lot less attention, but statistically at +0.6 it has been as meaningful.
The only personnel loss of significance involved Rhys Hoskins who, following an injury-aborted 2023, signed with Milwaukee. At -0.9 WAA for the Brewers, Hoskins – who would be playing behind Bryce Harper -- hasn’t been missed.
Score: +0.7. Grade: C.
Miami Marlins: Peter Bendix, president of baseball operations. Grade: D.
No greater evidence is needed that Bendix has the Marlins in tear-down mode than his early season decision to trade two-time batting champion Luis Arraez to San Diego for prospects. Arraez is batting .317 in San Diego but the Marlins need prospects, and Arraez brought four of them in return.
The trade of Arraez was one of 34 moves made by Bendix impacting the major league roster. Thus far, those moves have split evenly, with 16 helping the Marlins, 16 hurting them and two marked down as neutral.
Based on early season evidence, Bendix’s search for prospects may have yielded two of them. Reliever Declan Cronin, a waiver pickup from Houston, has a 2.95 ERA in 27 appearances. Meanwhile, system product Max Meyer produced a 2.12 ERA in three early season starts, two of them wins, before being reassigned to Jacksonville for reasons the Bendix front office probably understands, even if Marlins fans don’t.
Bendix’s biggest whiff has been the November trade with Minnesota that landed Nick Gordon to play outfield (and occasionally infield). Gordon came to Miami with a three-year track record indicating very little power or average, and at .227/.251/.384, he has lived down to expectations.
He’s also whiffed on the hope that shortstop Tim Anderson might rebound from a bad 2023 with the White Sox. Signed as a free agent, Anderson is hitting .220 with a -1.6 WAA.
Score: -1.2. Grade: D.
These are the five most significant moves made by NL East teams in 2024. Values are based on Wins Above Average impact on the NL East team.
1. Atlanta Braves sign free agent pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, +2.4
2. Miami Marlins trade for Kyle Gordon, -1.9
3. Washington Nationals sign free agent Eddie Rosario, -1.8
4. Atlanta Braves sign free agent pitcher Chris Sale, +1.6
5. Miami Marlins sign free agent shortstop Tim Anderson, -1.6
Grading AL Central front offices at midpoint of the 2024 MLB season (calltothepen.com)