No offense; The story of the 2024 season
By Bill Felber
Offense obviously is down this season. The amazing thing is the depth and breadth of the decline.
MLB teams are averaging 4.33 runs per game so far this season. That’s on pace to finish one-third of a run lower than just last season, and a half run down from just five seasons ago.
The broad offensive decline reprises a trend that had held firm for most of the past 15 seasons, but which MLB officials thought they reversed with a series of rules changes designed to open up the game prior to the 2023 season.
Those changes included a ban on extreme shifts. The immediate impact appeared to be favorable; in 2023, run production improved from 4.28 to 4.62 runs per game, batting average rose from .243 to .248, and OPS rose from .706 to .734.
But that didn’t last long. Approaching the midway point of the 2024 season, batting average is down to .241, and OPS is at .699.
The on base average is on pace to be the MLB low since 1989. The .241 batting average is on pace to be the lowest since 1988, and the third lowest in history.
And it’s not just one or two teams dragging down the class average. To date, 20 of the 30 MLB teams are averaging fewer runs per game than last season. For 10 of those 20 the declines are a half run or more in four cases the drop off exceeds a full run per game.
By contrast, only three teams have increased offense by as much as a half run per game from 2023 to 2024, and none have exceeded one run per game.
More noteworthy, several of the game’s Blueblood brands are suffering offensively. The 2023 champion Texas Rangers are scoring 1.13 runs per game less than last year. Production is off by 1.5 runs per game in Atlanta, by two-thirds of a run in Houston, by six-tenths of a run in Los Angeles, and by four-fifths of a run per game on both the North and South Sides of Chicago.
The Braves, burdened by the absence of Ronald Acuna Jr., lead the dropoff, their production declining from 5.85 to 4.35 runs per game. But they have company. The Tampa Bay Rays are off by 1.45, the Mariners by 1.43, and the aforementioned Rangers by 1.13.
The only three teams that have markedly improved runs per game production are the Guardians (from 4.09 to 5.03), the Yankees (from 4.15 to 5.06), and the Royals (from 4.17 to 4.87).