How will odds favor Texas Rangers or Houston Astros after ALCS Game 3?

Game 3 of the ALCS between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers is pivotal for both teams. Here are the historical facts about Game 3 outcomes of the past.
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

ARLINGTON, Texas — There is plenty on the line for both the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers on Wednesday night as the 2023 ALCS scene shifts to Globe Life Field.

The Rangers enter Wednesday with a 2-0 mark after securing back-to-back wins in Houston. Now comes a pivotal ALCS Game 3 which could shift the scales mightily for either team.

How will odds change for Texas Rangers and Houston Astros after ALCS Game 3?

From a historic perspective, the outcome of ALCS Game 3 will dramatically the change the fortunes for both teams.

For Texas, a win on Wednesday would give the Rangers a 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven series. Teams that have gone up 3-0 in a best-of-seven have advanced 37 of 38 times, with the only exception being the miraculous run by the Boston Red Sox against the New York Yankees in the 2004 ALCS. If you boil the 3-0 lead down to just the LCS matchups, the team going up 3-0 has won the series 15 of 16 times.

With that perspective, Game 3 could be considered a must-win for the Astros if they want to keep their hopes of defending their World Series title alive.

So what happens if Houston wins on Wednesday? Historically, teams that have won Game 3 after falling behind 2-0 in a best-of-seven series in the postseason have gone to win the series 13 of 50 times. That's a 26 percent success rate, something that isn't great but certainly better than if the Astros fall into a 3-0 hole.

And, much like the 2004 Red Sox in a 3-0 scenario, there is a team for Houston to point to as a reason for hope if they win Game 3. The 1985 Kansas City Royals are the only team to be down 0-2 and win Game 3 on their way to winning the ALCS.

Yes, there is plenty on the line for the Astros and Rangers tonight, which is what makes Houston starting pitcher Cristian Javier's take on crocodiles oh so interesting.