Philadelphia Phillies' best-case and worst-case scenarios for 2024 season
The Philadelphia Phillies enter 2024 with one of the most familiar rosters in the game. The starting nine and the rotation both return intact from the team that won 90 games last season. There isn’t another team in baseball that can boast the same stability.
Phillies' best-case scenario for 2024
This is not only the identical lineup to the one that came within one game of going to the World Series in 2023. It is virtually identical to the Phillies team that did get there in 2022. How could things get better?
Well, Bryce Harper is fully recovered from the shoulder issues that cost him the first half of last season. Considering that Harper produced a .900 OPS when he finally did hit the field, his 3.7 WAR of 2023 easily could have been worth an extra couple of games if stretched over a full healthy season.
Is there potential for an uptick? Yes. Second baseman Bryson Stott, third baseman Alec Bohm and outfielder Brandon Marsh each established themselves as bona fide big leaguers last year, and all three enter 2024 in a player’s prime growth window, ages 26 to 27. Trust me, you would like to have their futures.
Not that it matters for 2024, but the Phils capped the offseason by extending their ace, Zack Wheeler, through 2027. That move was typical of a front office led by team president Dave Dombrowski and general manager Sam Fuld that ranks among the game’s savviest.
Just last season, the various moves made by Dombrowski and Fuld improved the Phillies’ productivity by 13.9 games as measured by Wins Above Average. This has been a quieter offseason, but if the playout itself requires adjustment, you can count on Dombrowski and Fuld to react.
Phillies' worst-case scenario for 2024
The big no-no in MLB is often a tendency to rest on one’s laurels. That’s the threat to the Phillies, who didn’t do much this offseason to actually improve their roster.
Their most headline-grabbing action was the re-signing of rotation anchor Aaron Nola for close to $190 million through 2027. Nola has been a force for the Phillies since coming up in 2015.
But he had a 4.46 ERA in 32 starts, which made 2023 his second season in the last three with an ERA+ below the league average of 100 … it was 96. And that prompts a legitimate question: Did the Phillies just tie themselves long-term to a diminishing asset?
Nola isn’t the only Phillies regular for whom such questions are warranted. Catcher J.T. Realmuto is a three-time All Star but he’s also 33 – an age where decline often sets in behind the plate -- and coming off the worst season of his career. Whit Merrifield was added for backup in both the infield and outfield, but he’s 35 and has only produced one OPS+ above 100 since 2020.
If you are a Phillies fan, you have one more concern. Historically, close to half the teams that reach postseason level in a given year fail to maintain that playoff spot in the subsequent year. Last year, for example, only six of the dozen 2022 postseason contenders played October ball.
Since the Dodgers, Braves, Orioles and Astros are viewed as virtual mortal locks to repeat their postseason showings, that leaves the remaining eight 2023 playoff clubs to scrap for possibly as few as two or three spots this coming season. Did the Phillies do enough to ensure that they are one of those two or three teams? Or, in essentially playing a pat hand this winter, will they be 2024 victims of the game’s natural churn?
Phillies' most realistic scenario
Philadelphia’s best asset is the return of Harper to a full season’s worth of duty. Stott, Bohm and Marsh may also be better. But any improvement they collectively generate is probably offset by the likelihood of deteriorating skills elsewhere -- and we’re looking at you, Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto.
The Phillies won 90 games last season, and can probably approach that total in 2024. They’re fortunate in one aspect: none of the three NL East teams that trailed them in 2023 made an aggressive stride toward improvement this winter.
That means a third straight runner-up finish in the division remains likely, and second in the NL East is generally good for a playoff ticket.
But the Phillies have no guarantees. Outside their division, the Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Cardinals and Padres all have some potential to hijack their playoff ticket.
Yankees' best-case and worst-case scenarios for 2024 (calltothepen.com)