Phillies' most realistic scenario
Philadelphia’s best asset is the return of Harper to a full season’s worth of duty. Stott, Bohm and Marsh may also be better. But any improvement they collectively generate is probably offset by the likelihood of deteriorating skills elsewhere -- and we’re looking at you, Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto.
The Phillies won 90 games last season, and can probably approach that total in 2024. They’re fortunate in one aspect: none of the three NL East teams that trailed them in 2023 made an aggressive stride toward improvement this winter.
That means a third straight runner-up finish in the division remains likely, and second in the NL East is generally good for a playoff ticket.
But the Phillies have no guarantees. Outside their division, the Reds, Cubs, Pirates, Cardinals and Padres all have some potential to hijack their playoff ticket.
Yankees' best-case and worst-case scenarios for 2024 (calltothepen.com)