St. Louis Cardinals' best-case and worst-case scenarios for 2024 season
The 2024 St. Louis Cardinals have a reputation to live up to. Since the current iteration of the NL Central was created in 2013, the Cardinals have won more divisional titles, made more postseason appearances and won more games than any of their rivals.
That’s what made 2023, when the Cardinals finished last in their division for the first time since 1990, so unsettling. Now what?
Cardinals' Best-Case Scenario for 2024
Team president John Mozeliak decided the fix lay in dressing up the team’s rotation. The Cardinals were 24th in the majors in team ERA in 2023, so Mozeliak added Sonny Gray from Minnesota, Lance Lynn from the White Sox/Dodgers and Kyle Gibson from the Orioles. Whether that’s a fix remains to be seen: Gray is already experiencing hamstring problems, the severity of which have not been fully determined as of this writing. He could miss Opening Day.
Lynn had his greatest success with the Cardinals, but he had a 5.73 ERA last season. At 5.05, Gibson wasn’t much better. So Cardinal fans live in hope.
They also hope that the everyday lineup, not radically altered, will revitalize from its collective 2023 funk, when the Cardinals were an unimpressive 19th in runs per game. The major addition looks to be Masyn Winn, who is being entrusted with the shortstop job if he can keep it. Winn hit .288 at Memphis last season, but .234 in 37 big league games following his mid-August callup.
Still, with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado back to lead the offense, the Cardinals are as popular a pick as any among the pundit class to win the very available NL Central. In outfielders Jordan Walker and Tommy Edman and infielder Brendan Donovan, the Cardinals have some regulars with the potential to break through as stars. If they do, St. Louis can be back in its accustomed spot as divisional kings
Cardinals' Worst-Case Scenario for 2024
The nightmare scenario in St. Louis begins with the medical reports on Gray’s hamstring. A healthy Gray plainly charts out at the top of the Cardinal rotation. His loss for any meaningful period of time would be a first-order concern.
Then there’s the question of just what the Cardinals bought when they signed Lynn and Gibson. Lynn has been an innings eater, but he’s 37 and coming off a bad 2023. Gibson is 36 and coming off consecutive bad seasons with the Phillies and Orioles. If they replicate their 2023 performances, the Cardinals rotation is in big trouble.
Beyond that, the Cardinals' need Arenado’s lukewarm 2023 numbers – a .266 average, .774 OPS and 109 OPS+ -- to be an aberration rather than a trend. That might be an open question; he’s 33, an age that is basically the end point of a player’s usual peak performance level. Goldschmidt was more productive last year, but he’ll be 36.
Most Realistic Cardinals Scenario
For the Cardinals to meet expectations in 2024, a lot of problematic things have to go right. Obviously Gray has to be healthy, but beyond that Gibson and Lynn have to pitch well. Arenado and Goldschmidt have to play to their reputations, Walker has to develop into a star and Winn has to make it.
Nothing in the above paragraph is impossible. And if most of that happens – emphasis on the word ‘most’ – the Cardinals can be very good. But if Arenado and Goldschmidt flatline, if Walker and Masyn are ordinary and if Lynn and Gibson wash out, this may be an appropriate time to note that the Cardinals haven’t finished last in consecutive seasons since 1907-08.
So, one way or another, the potential in St. Louis is for history to be made in 2024.
Los Angeles Dodgers' best-case, worst-case and most realistic scenarios for 2024 (calltothepen.com)